[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jan 21 15:23:16 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, January 21
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2374 up 0.0289
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 3.92 1/2 DEC15 HI 4.18 3/4
LOW 3.86 1/4 LOW 4.13 3/4
CLOSE3.88 Down 2 1/4 CLOSE 4.15 1/2 Down 1 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR15+MAY15+MAY15
CK Low 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
CK High 0.65 4.53 178.34 0.20 4.36 171.45
CK Avg 0.61 -0.31 4.49 176.70 0.20 -0.79 4.36 171.45
Essex Cty 0.70 4.58 180.31 0.35 4.51 177.35
Mdsx Low 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Mdsx High 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Mdsx Avg 0.60 -0.32 4.48 176.37 0.20 -0.79 4.36 171.45
Hensall 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Bruce 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Putnam 0.55 4.43 174.40 0.15 4.31 169.48
Burford 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Port Perry 0.55 4.43 174.40 0.20 4.36 171.45
Norfolk 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Palmerston 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Varna 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Trenton 0.75 4.63 182.28 0.35 4.51 177.35
Winchester 0.90 4.78 188.18 0.60 4.76 187.20
North Gower 0.95 4.83 190.15 0.55 4.71 185.23
Huron FOB 0.70 4.58 180.31 0.25 4.41 173.42
Kent FOB 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Lamb FOB 0.60 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
Mdsx FOB 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 4.48 176.37 0.20 4.36 171.45
FOB SW Que N/A 0.55 4.71 185.23
Track 0.90 4.78 188.18N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 4.56 179.32
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.60 4.76 187.20
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.80 0.90 0.90 0.90 4.68 184.24N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 0.95 0.40 4.56 179.32
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 4.56 179.32
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.50 4.66 183.26
W O Feed 1.01 0.71 4.89 192.35
US Rep 1.25 0.96 5.13 201.96
Toledo El. -0.19 3.69 145.45 -0.53 3.62 142.63
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.65 4.53178 1/3 0.55 4.71185 2/9
MID SD CRN 0.62 1/2 4.50 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.65 4.53
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2374 up 0.0289
Chicago soybeans closed narrowly mixed.
MAR15 HI 9.91 NOV15 HI 9.76 1/4
LOW 9.77 1/2 LOW 9.62 3/4
CLOSE9.83 1/2 Up 1 1/2 CLOSE 9.65 3/4 Down 1
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAR1+MAY15
CK Low 1.35 11.19 410.981.15 10.81 397.11
CK High 1.57 11.41 419.061.30 10.96 402.62
CK Average 1.41 -0.9111.25 413.241.21 -1.0910.86 399.13
Essex Cty 1.94 11.78 432.661.66 11.32 415.85
Mdsx Low 1.35 11.19 410.981.15 10.81 397.11
Mdsx High 1.55 11.39 418.331.26 10.92 401.15
Mdsx Average 1.45 -0.8711.29 414.651.21 -1.0910.86 399.13
Hensall 1.40 11.24 412.821.20 10.86 398.94
Bruce 1.35 11.19 410.981.15 10.81 397.11
Putnam 1.30 11.14 409.141.10 10.76 395.27
Burford 1.58 11.42 419.431.29 10.95 402.25
Port Perry 1.55 11.39 418.331.26 10.92 401.15
Norfolk 1.40 11.24 412.821.15 10.81 397.11
Palmerston 1.40 11.24 412.821.20 10.86 398.94
Varna 1.35 11.19 410.981.15 10.81 397.11
Trenton 1.35 11.19 410.981.15 10.81 397.11
Winchester 1.94 11.78 432.661.59 11.25 413.27
North Gower 2.01 11.85 435.231.87 11.53 423.56
Huron FOB 1.65 11.49 422.001.30 10.96 402.62
Kent FOB 1.35 11.19 410.981.15 10.81 397.11
Lambton FOB 1.35 11.19 410.981.15 10.81 397.11
Middlesex FOB1.87 1.85 1.87 1.93 11.71 430.091.32 10.98 403.35
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.32 2.32 2.40 N/A 12.16 446.622.04 11.70 429.81
Windsor 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 12.00 440.741.88 11.54 423.93
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.15 N/A N/A N/A 11.99 440.371.60 11.26 413.64
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.26 9.58 351.84-0.47 9.19 337.58
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2374 up 0.0289
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 5.44 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.51 1/4
LOW 5.35 1/2 LOW 5.42 1/2
CLOSE 5.36 3/4 Down 1/4 CLOSE 5.43 1/2 Down 3/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR15 HI 5.94 1/2 JUL15 HI 6.07 1/2
LOW 5.79 3/4 LOW 5.94
CLOSE 5.81 Down 8 1/2 CLOSE 5.95 Down 8 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.01 1.58 1.21 0.75
CAD $/bu 7.38 6.94 6.57 6.56
CAD $/tonne 271.04 255.14 241.51 241.17
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.15 0.50 N/A
London 2.06 1.32 1.08 N/A 1.13 1.25 0.51 N/A
Hensall 2.00 N/A 0.95 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 1.19 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Norwich 2.00 N/A 0.95 N/A 1.20 N/A 0.50 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.00 N/A 0.95 N/A 1.20 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.20 0.90 N/A N/A 1.15 0.40 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.20 0.95 0.30 N/A 1.15 0.40 -0.20
Varna 2.05 1.65 1.00 N/A 1.15 1.15 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 2.00 1.60 0.95 N/A 1.10 1.10 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.38 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.86
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.24N/A 1.58N/A N/A N/A 1.54N/A
Toledo El. 5.49US 6.78CA 5.51US 6.81CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.29 1.78 0.86 0.98
CAD $/bu 6.72 7.22 6.29 6.93
CAD $/tonne 247.09 265.28 231.18 254.60
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 507.62 - 510.93
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 225.00 - 230.00
Wednesday, January 21, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.88 ↑ 2 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.83 ↓ 28 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.36 ↓ 2 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.81 ↓ 1 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 5.71 ↓ 3 cents
Canadian $ Mar .8088 ↓ 247 points
CORN:
Brazil's sowings of safrinha corn, the main source of its exports of the grain, will fall by about 10%, depressed by weather setbacks as well as pressure on prices, according to leading crop analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier.
On the charts: We have mixed signals on the corn charts. Daily and monthly signals are negative, while the weekly signals are still positive. Overhead resistance appears to be at the $3.95-$4.05 level based on the March chart. At the present time, we are in need of a close above the $4.15 level to reignite the bulls interest. On the downside, technical support is found at the $3.55-$3.65 based on the March contract.
We now have sell signals on the daily chart while the weekly struggles to stay positive. The monthly charts are still entrenched in a downward trend.
SOYBEANS:
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that China cancelled purchases of 285,000 tonnes of American soybeans in the second week of January and another 174,000 tonnes of soybeans for 2014-2015 delivery were cancelled on January 20. This second cancelation, brings the total to 459,000 tonnes in just one week.
On the charts: As mentioned in my past weekly commentaries, soybeans need to continue to close above the $9.75 level on the March contract to avoid a technical sell signal which would likely see a retest of the $9.00 level. So far, we have flirted with the level but failed to close below there. If we were to fail to find good support at the $9.00 level we could see a break to challenge the $8.00 level, not seen since harvest of 2008. All indicators at this time are still bearish confirming the downtrend that has been in place since June of 2014.
WHEAT:
On the charts: Like the other grains, the wheat chart seems to be deteriorating by the day. The $5.25 level seems to be providing temporary support on the March contract. We had a technical intraday hook reversal on January 20, and if it holds we could see some upside during the couple of weeks. For the time being, we need to stay above the $5.23 on close to achieve a bounce to the $5.50 level on the March contract. If we can accomplish that, the overhead resistance levels are at $5.75 and then $6.00. Short term signals are negative, while the medium term indicators are still flirting with the support line. A close below $5.25 on the March contract could see a retest of the $5.00 and possibly $4.80 levels based on the lead month contract. The long term trend remains down.
2014 HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE January 21, 2015
SWW @ $270.96/mt ($7.37/bu), SRW @ $241.41/mt ($6.57/bu),
HRW @ $255.05/mt ($6.94/bu), HRS @ $241.41/mt ($6.57/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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