[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Feb 4 15:32:18 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, February 4
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.255 up 0.0094
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 3.88 1/4 DEC15 HI 4.18 1/4
LOW 3.79 1/2 LOW 4.10 1/4
CLOSE3.83 1/2 Down 2 1/4 CLOSE 4.14 1/4 Down 2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY15+MAY15+JUL15
CK Low 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
CK High 0.80 4.64 182.47 0.40 4.54 178.83
CK Avg 0.76 -0.23 4.59 180.83 0.36 -0.72 4.50 177.19
Essex Cty 0.77 4.61 181.29 0.36 4.50 177.26
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Mdsx High 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Mdsx Avg 0.75 -0.24 4.59 180.50 0.35 -0.72 4.49 176.86
Hensall 0.78 4.61 181.49 0.38 4.52 177.85
Bruce 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Putnam 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Burford 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Port Perry 0.70 4.54 178.54 0.35 4.49 176.86
Norfolk 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Palmerston 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Varna 0.80 4.64 182.47 0.40 4.54 178.83
Trenton 0.90 4.74 186.41 0.40 4.54 178.83
Winchester 1.10 4.94 194.28 0.80 4.94 194.58
North Gower 0.98 4.82 189.56 0.75 4.89 192.61
Huron FOB 0.95 4.79 188.38 0.40 4.54 178.83
Kent FOB 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Lamb FOB 0.75 4.59 180.50 0.35 4.49 176.86
Mdsx FOB 0.80 0.80 0.85N/A 4.64 182.47 0.40 4.54 178.83
FOB SW Que N/A 0.80 4.94 194.58
Track 1.13 4.96 195.27N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.60 4.74 186.70
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 5.14 202.45
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 0.85 0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 4.84 190.35N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.10 1.15 0.75 4.89 192.61
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A 1.10 1.15 0.80 4.94 194.58
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 5.09 200.48
W O Feed 1.18 0.86 5.01 197.27
US Rep 1.35 1.03 5.19 204.12
Toledo El. -0.14 3.70 145.53 -0.54 3.60 141.76
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.70 4.54178 1/2 0.70 4.84190 2/3
MID SD CRN 0.77 1/2 4.61
HI SD CRN 0.80 4.63 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.255 up 0.0094
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
MAR15 HI 9.90 1/4 NOV15 HI 9.70 1/2
LOW 9.67 1/2 LOW 9.50
CLOSE9.72 Down 15 CLOSE 9.55 Down 11 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+MAY1+AUG15
CK Low 1.75 11.47 421.451.50 11.05 406.02
CK High 1.85 11.57 425.121.60 11.15 409.69
CK Average 1.81 -0.6911.53 423.591.58 -0.9011.13 408.77
Essex Cty 2.20 11.92 437.991.79 11.34 416.67
Mdsx Low 1.75 11.47 421.451.50 11.05 406.02
Mdsx High 1.83 11.55 424.391.58 11.13 408.96
Mdsx Average 1.79 -0.7111.51 422.921.54 -0.9411.09 407.49
Hensall 1.80 11.52 423.291.53 11.08 406.94
Bruce 1.75 11.47 421.451.50 11.05 406.02
Putnam 1.75 11.47 421.451.50 11.05 406.02
Burford 1.86 11.58 425.491.61 11.16 410.06
Port Perry 1.83 11.55 424.391.58 11.13 408.96
Norfolk 1.75 11.47 421.451.50 11.05 406.02
Palmerston 1.80 11.52 423.291.55 11.10 407.86
Varna 1.80 11.52 423.291.55 11.10 407.86
Trenton 1.80 11.52 423.291.55 11.10 407.86
Winchester 2.28 12.00 440.921.95 11.50 422.55
North Gower 2.30 12.02 441.661.94 11.49 422.19
Huron FOB 1.95 11.67 428.801.60 11.15 409.69
Kent FOB 1.75 11.47 421.451.50 11.05 406.02
Lambton FOB 1.75 11.47 421.451.50 11.05 406.02
Middlesex FOB1.95 2.00 2.06 N/A 11.67 428.801.75 11.30 415.20
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.40 2.47 2.49 2.55 12.12 445.332.19 11.74 431.37
Windsor 2.41 2.37 2.26 2.27 12.13 445.702.00 11.55 424.39
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.43 N/A N/A N/A 12.15 446.441.97 11.52 423.29
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.20 9.52 349.76-0.48 9.07 333.32
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.255 up 0.0094
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 5.21 3/4 JUL15 HI 5.29 1/4
LOW 5.07 1/2 LOW 5.15
CLOSE 5.11 Down 2 3/4 CLOSE 5.18 1/4 Down 4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR15 HI 5.80 SEP15 HI 5.96 1/2
LOW 5.61 3/4 LOW 5.80 1/4
CLOSE 5.66 Down 10 CLOSE 5.83 3/4 Down 10 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.07 1.63 1.25 0.83
CAD $/bu 7.18 6.74 6.36 6.49
CAD $/tonne 263.74 247.58 233.72 238.34
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 0.68 N/A
London 2.19 1.44 1.19 N/A 1.23 1.36 0.73 N/A
Hensall 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.25 N/A 0.60 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.02
Essex N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 0.67 N/A
Norwich 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.70 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.60 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.25 1.10 N/A N/A 1.15 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.80 1.15 0.60 N/A 1.35 0.65 0.35
Varna 2.15 1.75 1.15 N/A 1.25 1.25 0.60 N/A
Mitchell 2.15 1.72 1.15 N/A 1.25 1.25 0.60 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.39 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.01
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 1.43 N/A N/A N/A 1.09 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.32N/A 1.63N/A N/A N/A 1.60N/A
Toledo El. 5.23US 6.57CA 5.25US 6.62CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.34 1.85 0.90 1.07
CAD $/bu 6.53 7.03 6.09 6.91
CAD $/tonne 239.83 258.34 223.63 253.94
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 526.58 - 532.09
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 250.00
Wednesday, February 4, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.83 ↑ 10 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.72 ↑ 13 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.12 ↑ 7 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.67 ↑ 12 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 5.54 ↑ 18 cents
Canadian $ Mar .7940 ↓ 45 points
CORN:
Stats Canada reported total stocks of corn for grain totalled 9.7 million tonnes, down 16.6% from the record level of 11.6 million tonnes at December 31, 2013. This decline resulted from a 16.2% decrease in on-farm stocks and an 18.0% drop in commercial stocks.
On the charts: The $3.65 level that we spoke of last week held on the March corn. This looks like a small rally in a bear market. Indicators are still mixed with the daily and long term indicators looking bearish while the intermediate or weekly charts are still neutral.
SOYBEANS:
Overall, Stats Canada reports soybean stocks rose 29.4% from December 31, 2013, to a record 3.5 million tonnes on December 31, 2014, surpassing the previous high of 2.8 million tonnes reported on December 31, 2011. Commercial stocks rose 57.1% to 1.2 million tonnes, while stocks held on- farm increased 18.0% to 2.3 million tonnes.
On the charts: To answer last week’s question we did get a rally before we attempt the $9.00 support level. Overhead resistance seems to be around $10.15-$25 on the nearby contract. With all indicators still pointing south we have to view this rally as a selling opportunity until the trend reverses. All indicators at this time are still bearish, confirming the downtrend that has been in place since June 2014.
WHEAT:
The same Stats Canada report showed total stocks of wheat decreased 13.5% from December 31, 2013, to 24.8 million tonnes, following a 22% decrease in wheat production in 2014. On-farm stocks totalled 20.8 million tonnes, down 17.8% from the record high of 25.3 million tonnes in 2013. On the other hand, commercial stocks were up 19.6% to 4.0 million tonnes.
On the charts: We came within 15 cents of the September lows on the March contract. This 15 cent bounce was overdue but does not change the big picture. Overhead resistance is around $5.25 on the March contract with major support at the lows of $4.70 made last September. Short, medium, and long term indicators are still negative. The main trend remains down.
2014 HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE February 4, 2015
SWW @ $264.15/mt ($7.19/bu), SRW @ $234.08/mt ($6.37/bu),
HRW @ $247.95/mt ($6.75/bu), HRS @ $238.70/mt ($6.50/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
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John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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