Wednesday, February 4, 2014
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Mar
3.83
?
         10
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Mar
9.72
?
13
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar
5.12
?
7
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar
5.67
?
12
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar
5.54
?
18
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
Mar
.7940
?
45
points



CORN:  
Stats Canada reported total stocks of corn for grain totalled 9.7 million tonnes, down 16.6% from the record level of 11.6 million tonnes at December 31, 2013. This decline resulted from a 16.2% decrease in on-farm stocks and an 18.0% drop in commercial stocks. 
On the charts:  The $3.65 level that we spoke of last week held on the March corn. This looks like a small rally in a bear market. Indicators are still mixed with the daily and long term indicators looking bearish while the intermediate or weekly charts are still neutral. 
SOYBEANS:
Overall, Stats Canada reports soybean stocks rose 29.4% from December 31, 2013, to a record 3.5 million tonnes on December 31, 2014, surpassing the previous high of 2.8 million tonnes reported on December 31, 2011. Commercial stocks rose 57.1% to 1.2 million tonnes, while stocks held on- farm increased 18.0% to 2.3 million tonnes.
On the charts:  To answer last week’s question we did get a rally before we attempt the $9.00 support level. Overhead resistance seems to be around $10.15-$25 on the nearby contract. With all indicators still pointing south we have to view this rally as a selling opportunity until the trend reverses. All indicators at this time are still bearish, confirming the downtrend that has been in place since June 2014.

WHEAT:

The same Stats Canada report showed total stocks of wheat decreased 13.5% from December 31, 2013, to 24.8 million tonnes, following a 22% decrease in wheat production in 2014. On-farm stocks totalled 20.8 million tonnes, down 17.8% from the record high of 25.3 million tonnes in 2013. On the other hand, commercial stocks were up 19.6% to 4.0 million tonnes.

On the charts:  We came within 15 cents of the September lows on the March contract. This 15 cent bounce was overdue but does not change the big picture. Overhead resistance is around $5.25 on the March contract with major support at the lows of $4.70 made last September. Short, medium, and long term indicators are still negative. The main trend remains down.



2014 HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE February 4, 2015

SWW @ $264.15/mt ($7.19/bu), SRW @ $234.08/mt ($6.37/bu),
HRW @ $247.95/mt ($6.75/bu), HRS @ $238.70/mt ($6.50/bu).



Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for February 4 2015