[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Dec 10 15:17:52 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, December 10
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3599 up 0.0004
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.
MAR16 HI 3.79 3/4 DEC16 HI 4.00 1/2
LOW 3.72 1/4 LOW 3.94
CLOSE3.79 1/4 Up 5 1/2 CLOSE 3.99 1/4 Up 3 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR16+MAR16+MAY16
CK Low 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
CK High 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
CK Avg 0.85 -0.52 4.64 182.77 0.85 -0.59 4.84 190.64
Essex Cty 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Mdsx Low 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Mdsx High 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Mdsx Avg 0.85 -0.52 4.64 182.77 0.85 -0.59 4.84 190.64
Hensall 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Bruce 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Putnam 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Burford 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Port Perry 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Norfolk 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Palmerston 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Varna 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Trenton 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Winchester 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
North Gower 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.95 4.94 194.58
Huron FOB 1.05 4.84 190.64 0.90 4.89 192.61
Kent FOB 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Lamb FOB 0.85 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
Mdsx FOB 0.85 0.90 0.90N/A 4.64 182.77 0.85 4.84 190.64
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.33 5.12 201.47N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.00 4.99 196.55
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A 1.25 1.25 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.15 5.14 202.45
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.15 5.14 202.45
W O Feed 1.42 0.93 5.21 205.21
US Rep 1.70 1.21 5.49 216.23
Toledo El. 0.12 3.92 154.13 -0.31 3.68 144.86
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.85 4.64 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.85 4.64 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3599 up 0.0004
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JAN16 HI 8.86 1/2 NOV16 HI 9.07
LOW 8.72 3/4 LOW 8.91 1/4
CLOSE8.78 1/4 Up 1 1/2 CLOSE 8.98 3/4 Up 3 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+MAR1+MAY16
CK Low 2.59 11.37 417.872.23 11.22 412.17
CK High 2.65 11.43 420.072.30 11.29 414.74
CK Average 2.61 -0.5711.39 418.482.26 -0.9811.25 413.40
Essex Cty 2.60 11.38 418.242.25 11.24 412.91
Mdsx Low 2.57 11.35 417.132.21 11.20 411.44
Mdsx High 2.60 11.38 418.242.25 11.24 412.91
Mdsx Average 2.59 -0.5911.37 417.682.23 -1.0111.22 412.17
Hensall 2.60 11.38 418.242.25 11.24 412.91
Bruce 2.60 11.38 418.242.25 11.24 412.91
Putnam 2.65 11.43 420.072.30 11.29 414.74
Burford 2.60 11.38 418.242.24 11.23 412.54
Port Perry 2.54 11.32 416.032.18 11.17 410.34
Norfolk 2.60 11.38 418.242.30 11.29 414.74
Palmerston 2.55 11.33 416.402.20 11.19 411.07
Varna 2.65 11.43 420.072.30 11.29 414.74
Trenton 2.65 11.43 420.072.30 11.29 414.74
Winchester 2.61 11.39 418.602.27 11.26 413.64
North Gower 2.42 11.20 411.622.42 11.41 419.15
Huron FOB 2.75 11.53 423.752.35 11.34 416.58
Kent FOB 2.60 11.38 418.242.30 11.29 414.74
Lambton FOB 2.60 11.38 418.242.30 11.29 414.74
Middlesex FOB2.74 2.81 2.81 N/A 11.52 423.382.38 11.37 417.68
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.12 3.19 3.20 N/A 11.90 437.342.83 11.82 434.22
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.25 8.54 313.70-0.38 8.61 316.23
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3599 up 0.0004
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
MAR16 HI 4.98 JUL16 HI 5.07 1/2
LOW 4.85 1/2 LOW 4.96
CLOSE 4.95 1/2 Up 5 3/4 CLOSE 5.05 Up 5
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
MAR16 HI 5.17 1/2 SEP16 HI 5.46
LOW 5.08 LOW 5.41 1/2
CLOSE 5.15 1/2 Up 5 3/4 CLOSE 5.45 1/4 Up 7 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.70 1.25 1.25 0.91
CAD $/bu 8.65 6.20 6.20 6.06
CAD $/tonne 317.87 227.84 227.84 222.83
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A 0.95 0.45 N/A
London 3.59 0.81 0.95 N/A 1.49 0.95 0.48 N/A
Hensall 3.50 N/A 1.10 N/A 1.20 N/A 0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Norwich 3.50 N/A 1.10 N/A 1.30 N/A 0.45 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.50 N/A 0.40 N/A 1.30 N/A 0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.90 0.40 N/A N/A 0.95 0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.90 1.00 0.45 N/A 0.90 0.40 0.30
Varna 3.50 1.00 1.10 N/A 1.20 0.85 0.40 N/A
Mitchell 3.50 0.90 1.10 N/A 1.20 0.80 0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.62 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.11 1.11 0.78 N/A 1.13 0.74 1.00
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.51N/A 2.13N/A 2.84N/A 1.82N/A
Toledo El. 5.13US 6.98CA 5.02US 6.83CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.69 1.41 0.87 1.15
CAD $/bu 6.74 6.46 5.92 6.60
CAD $/tonne 247.52 237.52 217.52 242.65
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat -
Bayport Oats -
Bayport Barley -
FOB Hm Soymeal 464.96
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 210.00 - 230.00
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for Dec. 9, by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.72 ↑ 06 cents
Soybeans CBOT Jan 8.77 ↑ 02 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 4.90 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.10 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.80 ↑ 22 cents
Chicago Oats Mar 2.38 ↓ 06 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7365 ↓ 1.20 points
CORN:
On the charts: More of the same this week as the corn languishes between $3.60 support and $3.80 resistance. At this point, we are looking at many outside influences above and beyond current supply and demand including the U.S. dollar and geo-political world events. Corn like the other grain markets, are becoming more sensitive to changing global events and less to local issues. One major issue is global currency fluctuations. Major overhead resistance is around the $4 level and our support levels are still at $3.50 and $3.20. Daily indicators turned positive last week, but the weekly and long term trend remains negative.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: With the holidays fast approaching, I am switching over to the March contract beginning on December 18. The key reversal seen on November 27 is still intact; and as we hinted last week, the rally could see the $9.05 area before running into a headwind. That was the case as we hit $9.09 on the January contract and have pulled back to $8.72 as of December 9. This area should offer support and if so, we could see another assault on the $9.10 level. If we close above there, our next target is the $9.25 - $9.50 range on the lead month. This would fill the gap left on the weekly chart. The recent low of $8.45 - $8.50 is now the main support. Short term indicators are now neutral while the weekly and monthly indicators are still quite bearish. The U.S. dollar has a role here as well, in that if this is a major top in the U.S. dollar index market, we could have a reason for a rally in all commodities.
WHEAT:
On the charts:The March contract was range-bound between $4.60 and $4.92. This looks like a pure technical trader’s week. The recent low this week of $4.75 should act as a temporary bottom in the coming days. If this number holds and we don’t close below $4.75, I feel we could break through the $4.92 resistance which could vault us to the $5.00-$5.25 area. If, on the other hand, we fail to stay above the $.475 we could revisit the bottom around $4.50 - $4.60 once again. All indicators remain negative, and the main trend is still down.
Grain Farmers of Ontario will be offering another series of marketing seminars across Ontario. This time we will be focusing on “Options” on Futures. The dates that we have confirmed so far include,
*New Liskeard, January 14; Belleville, January 26; Avonmore, January 27; Chatham, February 9; Stratford, February 10; London, February 11; and Brantford, February 25. If you would like to attend, go online at www.gfo.ca/seminars; phone Marty Hibbs at 519-767-4123; or email mhibbs at gfo.ca. Seminars are limited to 25 participants per location.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE ON December 9, 2015
SWW @ $244.50/MT ($6.65/bu), HRW @ $234.52/MT ($6.38/bu),
HRS @ $238.51/MT ($6.49/bu), SRW @ $214.56/MT ($5.84/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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