[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Dec 3 15:42:36 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, December 3
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3394 up 0.0034
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.
MAR16 HI 3.78 DEC16 HI 4.00 1/2
LOW 3.67 3/4 LOW 3.91
CLOSE3.77 Up 6 3/4 CLOSE 3.99 1/2 Up 6 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR16+MAR16+MAY16
CK Low 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
CK High 0.90 4.67 183.85 0.85 4.85 190.74
CK Avg 0.86 -0.40 4.63 182.21 0.85 -0.49 4.85 190.74
Essex Cty 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Mdsx Low 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Mdsx High 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Mdsx Avg 0.85 -0.41 4.62 181.88 0.85 -0.49 4.85 190.74
Hensall 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Bruce 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Putnam 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Burford 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Port Perry 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Norfolk 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Palmerston 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Varna 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Trenton 0.80 4.57 179.91 0.85 4.85 190.74
Winchester 0.90 4.67 183.85 0.90 4.90 192.71
North Gower 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.95 4.95 194.68
Huron FOB 1.02 4.79 188.57 0.85 4.85 190.74
Kent FOB 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Lamb FOB 0.85 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
Mdsx FOB 0.85 0.90N/A N/A 4.62 181.88 0.85 4.85 190.74
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.38 5.15 202.55N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.00 5.00 196.64
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A 1.25 1.25 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 5.10 200.58
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 5.10 200.58
W O Feed 1.41 0.96 5.18 203.93
US Rep 1.70 1.25 5.47 215.34
Toledo El. 0.12 3.89 153.15 -0.31 3.69 145.20
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.87 1/2 4.64 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.90 4.67
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3394 up 0.0034
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JAN16 HI 8.98 NOV16 HI 9.17
LOW 8.85 LOW 9.04 1/4
CLOSE8.97 1/2 Up 5 1/4 CLOSE 9.16 3/4 Up 5 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+MAR1+MAY16
CK Low 2.40 11.38 417.962.05 11.22 412.17
CK High 2.50 11.48 421.632.10 11.27 414.01
CK Average 2.47 -0.5211.45 420.652.08 -0.9911.25 413.21
Essex Cty 2.50 11.48 421.632.10 11.27 414.01
Mdsx Low 2.47 11.45 420.532.05 11.22 412.17
Mdsx High 2.50 11.48 421.632.10 11.27 414.01
Mdsx Average 2.49 -0.5111.46 421.082.08 -0.9911.24 413.09
Hensall 2.48 11.45 420.722.10 11.27 414.01
Bruce 2.50 11.48 421.632.10 11.27 414.01
Putnam 2.50 11.48 421.632.10 11.27 414.01
Burford 2.54 11.52 423.102.12 11.29 414.74
Port Perry 2.44 11.42 419.432.02 11.19 411.07
Norfolk 2.50 11.48 421.632.05 11.22 412.17
Palmerston 2.45 11.43 419.802.05 11.22 412.17
Varna 2.45 11.43 419.802.10 11.27 414.01
Trenton 2.40 11.38 417.962.10 11.27 414.01
Winchester 2.40 11.38 417.962.10 11.27 414.01
North Gower 2.33 11.31 415.392.22 11.39 418.42
Huron FOB 2.60 11.58 425.31 N/A
Kent FOB 2.45 11.43 419.802.05 11.22 412.17
Lambton FOB 2.45 11.43 419.802.05 11.22 412.17
Middlesex FOB2.64 2.70 N/A N/A 11.62 426.782.22 11.39 418.42
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.10 3.16 N/A N/A 12.08 443.682.68 11.85 435.32
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.24 8.73 320.95-0.37 8.79 323.12
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3394 up 0.0034
Chicago wheat closed higher.
MAR16 HI 4.84 JUL16 HI 4.97 3/4
LOW 4.66 LOW 4.80 3/4
CLOSE 4.78 3/4 Up 11 1/2 CLOSE 4.92 3/4 Up 11
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR16 HI 5.24 SEP16 HI 5.48 1/2
LOW 5.07 3/4 LOW 5.36 3/4
CLOSE 5.12 Up 3 1/4 CLOSE 5.38 1/4 Up 3 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.47 1.07 1.07 0.78
CAD $/bu 8.25 5.85 5.85 5.90
CAD $/tonne 303.30 215.07 215.07 216.66
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A 0.90 0.45 N/A
London 3.24 0.64 0.64 N/A 1.34 0.81 0.34 N/A
Hensall 3.50 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.20 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.55 N/A
Norwich 3.50 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.30 N/A 0.40 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.50 N/A 0.35 N/A 1.30 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.85 0.35 N/A N/A 0.90 0.40 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.90 1.00 0.45 N/A 0.90 0.40 0.30
Varna 3.50 0.90 1.00 N/A 1.15 0.80 0.35 N/A
Mitchell 3.50 0.90 1.00 N/A 1.20 0.90 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.94 0.94 0.68 N/A 0.97 0.58 0.90
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.08N/A 1.68N/A 2.65N/A 1.65N/A
Toledo El. 4.96US 6.61CA 4.90US 6.53CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.51 1.25 0.71 1.00
CAD $/bu 6.44 6.17 5.64 6.38
CAD $/tonne 236.66 226.86 207.25 234.46
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat -
Bayport Oats -
Bayport Barley -
FOB Hm Soymeal 475.55
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 200.00 - 210.00
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for December 2, 2015 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.70¼ ↑ 4¼ cents
Soybeans CBOT Jan 8.92¼ ↑ 17¼ cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 4.67¼ ↓ 12¾ cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.08¾ ↑ 8¾ cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.69 ↓ 12 cents
Chicago Oats Mar 2.35 ↑ 9 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7482 ↓ .38 points
CORN: On the charts: Corn prices have been very quiet. The $3.50 - $3.60 levels on the March contract held nicely and our immediate overhead resistance is now somewhere around $3.75 on the March contract providing we don’t make new lows first. Major resistance is around the $4 level and our support levels are still at $3.50 and $3.20. The market indicators are negative by all accounts and should be viewed as such until we see proof of a sustained reversal.
SOYBEANS: On the charts: The key reversal seen on November 27 looks like it may just be a bottom for now. This past week has seen a 50 cent move to the upside from the Nov 27 low of $8.44 a bushel on the January contract. The next major hurdle is clearing the $9-level with a convincing close above $9.05. It is important to remember that even though the market looks strong at the moment, it will take a lot of work to turn this market around. Hopefully this could be the beginning of something positive. The two price points that we need to surpass to get some traction at this point are the $9.40 - $9.50 level based on the January contract. The recent low of $8.45 - $8.50 is now the main support. Short term indicators are now neutral while the weekly and monthly indicators are still quite bearish.
WHEAT:
On the charts: We are currently trading the March contract but with the December contract approaching expiry we will look at both the December and March contracts for our charting analysis. Last week we noted that a close below our $4.80 support line on December could lead to a re-test of the $4.50 support. As of December 2, we were sitting at $4.51 on the December contract. The next line of support will come at $4.25 and $4.00 on December.
Even if we get a sell-off on December, this should equate to March finding support at $4.50 as March is trading at a 16 cent premium to the December contract.
Overhead resistance is now at $5 and again at $5.30 on the March contract while support is seen at $4.50. All indicators remain negative, and the main trend is still down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE ON December 2, 2015
SWW @ $231.74/MT ($6.31/bu), HRW @ $221.91/MT ($6.04/bu),
HRS @ $233.21/MT ($6.35/bu), SRW @ $202.26/MT ($5.50/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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