[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Sep 3 15:28:09 EDT 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, September 3
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0873 down 0.0052
Chicago corn closed moderately lower to lower.
DEC14 HI 3.62 3/4 DEC14 HI 3.62 3/4
LOW 3.51 1/4 LOW 3.51 1/4
CLOSE3.52 Down 11 3/4 CLOSE 3.52 Down 11 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC14+DEC14+MAR15
CK Low 0.70 4.22 166.13 0.25 3.77 148.42
CK High 0.80 4.32 170.07 0.30 3.82 150.39
CK Avg 0.77 0.45 4.29 168.76 0.28 -0.03 3.80 149.73
Essex Cty 0.83 4.35 171.25 0.35 3.87 152.36
Mdsx Low 0.70 4.22 166.13 0.30 3.82 150.39
Mdsx High 0.80 4.32 170.07 0.30 3.82 150.39
Mdsx Avg 0.75 0.44 4.27 168.10 0.30 -0.01 3.82 150.39
Hensall 0.75 4.27 168.10 0.30 3.82 150.39
Bruce 0.60 4.12 162.20 0.25 3.77 148.42
Putnam 0.60 4.12 162.20 0.25 3.77 148.42
Burford 0.70 4.22 166.13 0.30 3.82 150.39
Port Perry 0.70 4.22 166.13 0.30 3.82 150.39
Norfolk 0.80 4.32 170.07 0.30 3.82 150.39
Palmerston N/A 0.25 3.77 148.42
Varna 0.70 4.22 166.13 0.30 3.82 150.39
Trenton 0.80 4.32 170.07 0.25 3.77 148.42
Winchester 0.80 4.32 170.07 0.40 3.92 154.32
North Gower 1.10 4.62 181.88 0.37 3.89 153.14
Huron FOB 0.85 4.37 172.04 0.20 3.72 146.45
Kent FOB 0.80 4.32 170.07 0.30 3.82 150.39
Lamb FOB 0.80 4.32 170.07 0.30 3.82 150.39
Mdsx FOB 0.80N/A N/A N/A 4.32 170.07 0.30 3.82 150.39
FOB SW Que 1.38 4.90 192.90 0.52 4.04 159.05
Track 1.45 4.97 195.66N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth 0.70N/A 0.25N/A 4.22 166.13 0.25 3.77 148.42
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.65 4.17 164.17
Aylmer-Eth 0.70 0.25N/A N/A 4.22 166.13 0.25 3.77 148.42
Sarn-Eth 0.90 0.90 0.30 0.30 4.42 174.01 0.30 3.82 150.39
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 1.00 0.40N/A 0.40 3.92 154.32
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.00 0.45N/A 0.45 3.97 156.29
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.10 0.50N/A 0.50 4.02 158.26
W O Feed 1.62 1.52 5.14 202.35
US Rep 1.50 1.40 5.02 197.63
Toledo El. -0.10 3.42 134.72 -0.25 3.27 128.72
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A 0.40 3.92154 1/3
MID SD CRN 0.27 1/2 3.79 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.30 3.82
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0873 down 0.0052
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV14 HI 10.28 3/4 NOV14 HI 10.28 3/4
LOW 10.12 1/2 LOW 10.12 1/2
CLOSE10.20 Down 12 CLOSE 10.20 Down 12
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN15
CK Low 2.65 12.85 472.160.25 10.45 383.97
CK High 2.72 12.92 474.730.33 10.53 386.91
CK Average 2.69 1.79 12.89 473.770.29 -0.6210.49 385.38
Essex Cty 2.97 13.17 483.910.26 10.46 384.34
Mdsx Low 2.70 12.90 473.990.25 10.45 383.97
Mdsx High 2.73 12.93 475.100.30 10.50 385.81
Mdsx Average 2.72 1.81 12.92 474.550.28 -0.6310.48 384.89
Hensall 2.73 12.93 474.910.28 10.48 384.89
Bruce 2.70 12.90 473.990.25 10.45 383.97
Putnam 2.70 12.90 473.990.25 10.45 383.97
Burford 2.76 12.96 476.200.33 10.53 386.91
Port Perry 2.73 12.93 475.100.30 10.50 385.81
Norfolk N/A 0.25 10.45 383.97
Palmerston N/A 0.30 10.50 385.81
Varna N/A 0.30 10.50 385.81
Trenton N/A 0.30 10.50 385.81
Winchester 2.75 12.95 475.830.75 10.95 402.34
North Gower 3.15 13.35 490.530.80 11.00 404.18
Huron FOB 2.85 13.05 479.510.40 10.60 389.48
Kent FOB N/A 0.25 10.45 383.97
Lambton FOB N/A 0.25 10.45 383.97
Middlesex FOB3.05 N/A N/A N/A 13.25 486.850.44 10.64 390.95
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.33 0.68 0.79 0.75 13.53 497.140.68 10.88 399.77
Windsor 3.20 0.49 0.55 0.68 13.40 492.370.49 10.69 392.79
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 3.13 N/A N/A N/A 13.33 489.790.53 10.73 394.26
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 2.05 12.25 450.111.43 11.63 427.33
Toledo El. 1.82 12.02 441.60-0.25 9.95 365.58
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0873 down 0.0052
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC14 HI 5.56 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.94 1/4
LOW 5.35 LOW 5.76 1/2
CLOSE 5.35 3/4 Down 19 1/4 CLOSE 5.78 Down 13
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC14 HI 6.23 1/4 JUL15 HI 6.48
LOW 6.08 3/4 LOW 6.41
CLOSE 6.10 1/4 Down 12 1/2 CLOSE 6.41 3/4 Down 10 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.58 0.69 0.20 0.05
CAD $/bu 5.94 6.05 5.56 6.15
CAD $/tonne 218.35 222.35 204.34 226.15
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A -0.15 N/A N/A N/A -0.30 N/A
London 0.40 0.56 -0.15 N/A 0.20 0.63 -0.35 N/A
Hensall 0.75 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.30 N/A -0.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -0.20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.04 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A -0.10 N/A N/A N/A -0.08 N/A
Norwich 1.00 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.30 N/A -0.30 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 0.75 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.30 N/A -0.30 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.50 -0.15 N/A N/A 0.50 -0.35 N/A
Brigden N/A 0.50 -0.15 N/A N/A 0.50 -0.35 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.61 -0.16 -0.42 N/A 0.48 -0.39 N/A
Varna 0.75 0.55 -0.15 N/A 0.30 0.55 -0.30 N/A
Mitchell 0.75 0.50 -0.15 N/A 0.30 0.55 -0.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A -0.12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A -0.08 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 1.02N/A 0.31N/A 1.22N/A 0.73N/A
Toledo El. 5.33US 5.80CA 5.60US 6.10CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.30 0.68 -0.14 -0.30
CAD $/bu 6.08 6.46 5.64 6.12
CAD $/tonne 223.25 237.25 207.24 224.75
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 320.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 731.73 - 759.28
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 155.00 - 165.00
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.52 ↓ 10 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 10.25 ↓ 7 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.35 ↓ 12 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 6.10 ↓ 1 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 6.01 ↓ 24 cents
Canadian $ Sept 0.9188 ↓ 32 points
CORN:
U.S. corn production prospects received a downgrade which kept figures at an all-time high ahead of next week’s supply and demand report expected from U.S. officials on September 11.
Analysis group Lanworth trimmed its forecast for the U.S. corn yield this year by 0.8 bushels per acre to 173.7 bushels per acre, and by 200 million bushels to 14.6 billion bushels The downgrade contrasted with the upward trend of most crop forecasts, including from INTL FCStone, which overnight raised its estimate for the yield by 1.7 bushels per acre to 174.1 bushels per acre, and for production by 140m bushels to 14.595bn bushels.
Strong U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data on the condition of the U.S. corn crop, rated by far the best since at least 1994 for this time of year, prompted Futures International to lift its forecasts as well.
On the charts, we seem to be finding good support at the $3.40 level basis the lead month but unless something changes in the near term, we could be on our way to the big $3.00 level.
SOYBEANS:
Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) has been found in many Nebraska soybean fields over the last two weeks.
This disease was only first confirmed in the state in 2004. Samples across the eastern half of Nebraska suggest the disease is widespread, but in most fields large areas are not affected.
Sudden death syndrome of soybean is caused by the fungus. This is a different fungus than the one which caused early season damping off problems associated with soybean stand. This year's weather, with moisture early in the season and at the early reproductive stage has been conducive to SDS. If you have concerns as to whether or not your crop is infected, you should be able to see full symptom expression now.
At this time SDS appears to be widespread only in Nebraska, but it can be effectively managed.
On the charts, the soybeans have given back half of their gains since the lows of 2001 and the highs of 2012. One might say we are in neutral territory, however, we are in a strong downtrend and any rallies are still being viewed as selling opportunities. The short term indicators are getting oversold as the September contract expires in the next 10 days and the next contract month is already approaching the $10.00 level due to the price inversion. This area should prove to be another major support level.
WHEAT:
USDA data shows rising barge rates on U.S. rivers, with charges for southbound transport to port on the lower Illinois river up 20% year on year, on the mid-Mississippi by 30%, and on the Arkansas by 39%. The U.S could be facing a similar kind of infrastructure backup which hurt Canada's grains industry last winter.
Even though prices of grain futures have fallen dramatically, premiums being charged at U.S. ports have soared.
Basis has strengthened by tight inland transportation and limited port loading capacity.
Record corn and soybean crops are expected to strain U.S. rail logistics and export loading capacity further during the autumn, as they compete with the petroleum industry for rail space.
Consensus that barge and rail freight operators will prioritize the movement of energy products could see grains storage capacity come under pressure during the peak harvest season.
On the technical picture, wheat is once again holding the short term support at $5.15-20 on the lead month chart. This is being challenged as I write this article. If this support fails, I expect to see an accelerated drop to the $4.50 level basis the lead month before we find the next major support. Again I feel any major rallies will continue to be short lived and viewed as an opportunity to sell.
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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