[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Oct 29 15:26:18 EDT 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, October 29
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1136 down 0.0042
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.
DEC14 HI 3.76 DEC15 HI 4.16 3/4
LOW 3.62 1/2 LOW 4.07
CLOSE3.75 1/4 Up 10 3/4 CLOSE 4.16 1/4 Up 7 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC14+MAR15+MAR15
CK Low 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
CK High 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
CK Avg 0.35 -0.11 4.10 161.51 -0.10 -0.61 4.06 159.93
Essex Cty 0.40 4.15 163.48 0.00 4.16 163.87
Mdsx Low 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Mdsx High 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Mdsx Avg 0.35 -0.11 4.10 161.51 -0.10 -0.61 4.06 159.93
Hensall 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.08 4.09 160.92
Bruce 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Putnam 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Burford 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Port Perry 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Norfolk 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Palmerston 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Varna 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.05 4.11 161.90
Trenton 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Winchester 0.65 4.40 173.32 0.05 4.21 165.84
North Gower 0.85 4.60 181.19 -0.05 4.11 161.90
Huron FOB 0.40 4.15 163.48N/A
Kent FOB 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Lamb FOB 0.35 4.10 161.51 -0.10 4.06 159.93
Mdsx FOB 0.75N/A N/A N/A 4.50 177.26 -0.10 4.06 159.93
FOB SW Que 0.95 4.70 185.13N/A
Track 1.03 4.78 188.08N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.35 4.05 159.54 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 0.55 0.55 0.60 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 1.15 0.70 0.75 N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.25 0.75 0.80 N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.15 0.80 0.85 N/A
W O Feed 1.13 1.00 4.88 192.22
US Rep 1.10 0.97 4.85 191.03
Toledo El. -0.20 3.55 139.78 -0.48 3.68 144.89
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.43 4.18164 2/3N/A
MID SD CRN 0.35 4.10 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.35 4.10 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1136 down 0.0042
Chicago soybeans closed moderately higher to higher.
NOV14 HI 10.45 NOV15 HI 10.21 3/4
LOW 10.04 LOW 9.87 1/4
CLOSE10.43 Up 35 CLOSE 10.20 3/4 Up 30 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN15
CK Low 0.55 10.98 403.450.25 10.46 384.25
CK High 0.65 11.08 407.120.35 10.56 387.92
CK Average 0.59 -0.6811.02 404.980.30 -0.9410.50 385.96
Essex Cty 0.87 11.30 415.200.50 10.71 393.43
Mdsx Low 0.55 10.98 403.450.25 10.46 384.25
Mdsx High 0.58 11.01 404.550.26 10.47 384.61
Mdsx Average 0.57 -0.7011.00 404.000.26 -0.9810.46 384.43
Hensall 0.58 11.01 404.360.28 10.48 385.17
Bruce 0.55 10.98 403.450.25 10.46 384.25
Putnam 0.60 11.03 405.280.30 10.51 386.08
Burford 0.61 11.04 405.650.29 10.50 385.72
Port Perry 0.58 11.01 404.550.26 10.47 384.61
Norfolk 0.65 11.08 407.120.30 10.51 386.08
Palmerston 0.56 10.99 403.810.30 10.51 386.08
Varna 0.55 10.98 403.450.30 10.51 386.08
Trenton 0.60 11.03 405.280.20 10.41 382.41
Winchester 1.05 11.48 421.820.65 10.86 398.94
North Gower 1.17 11.60 426.230.09 10.30 378.37
Huron FOB 0.65 11.08 407.12 N/A
Kent FOB 0.65 11.08 407.120.30 10.51 386.08
Lambton FOB 0.65 11.08 407.120.30 10.51 386.08
Middlesex FOB0.81 N/A N/A N/A 11.24 413.000.29 10.50 385.72
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 1.06 1.07 1.13 1.14 11.49 422.190.74 10.95 402.40
Windsor 1.16 1.06 1.13 1.30 11.59 425.860.73 10.94 401.88
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 1.20 N/A N/A N/A 11.63 427.330.77 10.98 403.35
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 1.88 12.31 452.321.49 11.70 429.81
Toledo El. -0.22 10.21 375.00-0.43 9.78 359.40
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1136 down 0.0042
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC14 HI 5.40 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.67 1/2
LOW 5.27 1/2 LOW 5.58 1/4
CLOSE 5.38 1/4 Up 7 1/2 CLOSE 5.65 3/4 Up 5 1/4
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC14 HI 5.84 3/4 JUL15 HI 6.12 1/4
LOW 5.74 1/2 LOW 6.04 1/2
CLOSE 5.82 1/2 Up 5 3/4 CLOSE 6.10 1/2 Up 7 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.77 0.88 0.37 0.20
CAD $/bu 6.15 6.26 5.76 6.03
CAD $/tonne 225.91 230.03 211.49 221.48
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.09 N/A N/A N/A -0.19 N/A
London 0.98 0.65 0.03 N/A 0.23 0.51 -0.33 N/A
Hensall 1.15 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.35 N/A -0.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -0.20 N/A N/A N/A -0.05 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.12 N/A N/A N/A -0.16 N/A
Norwich 1.15 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.35 N/A -0.30 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 1.15 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.35 N/A -0.30 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.60 0.10 N/A N/A 0.60 -0.22 N/A
Brigden N/A 0.60 0.10 N/A N/A 0.60 -0.22 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.80 0.10 0.19 N/A 0.60 -0.30 N/A
Varna 1.15 0.80 0.10 N/A 0.35 0.60 -0.30 N/A
Mitchell 1.15 0.80 0.10 N/A 0.35 0.60 -0.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.26 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A 0.19 N/A N/A N/A -0.17
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 0.41 N/A N/A N/A 0.25 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 2.34N/A 0.88N/A N/A N/A 0.91N/A
Toledo El. N/A 5.48US 6.14CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.46 0.86 0.01 -0.16
CAD $/bu 6.12 6.51 5.67 5.95
CAD $/tonne 224.88 239.31 208.40 218.60
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 285.00 - 310.00
Bayport Oats 315.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 594.38 - 603.19
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 125.00
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.75 ↑ 22 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 10.44 ↑ 89 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.38 ↑ 16 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.83 ↑ 13 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 6.07 ↑ 2 cents
Canadian $ Dec 0.8918 ↑ 20 points
CORN:
With the anticipation of record corn yields and multi-year lows in prices, it is likely that most farmers decided that corn was not the way to go for 2015. The market is now showing its disapproval by signaling through higher prices that the demand is still strong and that there is a need for 88-90 million acres to be planted in order to meet the demands for next year.
On the charts, our overhead resistance we spoke about back on October 8 is now a reality. We are trading in the $3.70 range and should encounter some resistance. The next target is $3.80-$3.90 basis the lead month and once that level is breached we have our eye on the 50% retracement and a gap at the $4.10 level on the December chart. Initial support is now pegged at $3.50 basis the lead month. Short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures touched a high of $10.45 per bushel, up $1.40 since the beginning of October low of just $9.04. The move was predicated by a combination of a slow harvest and short covering by speculators. This is the highest level seen since September 2 of this year.
On the charts, we have reached our overhead resistance as suggested in our October 8 commentary of $10-$10.40. As of this writing we are trading at $10.40 per bushel based on the November contract. We have closed the gap at the $10.45 closed, which technically opens the door for a further rally. Major resistance is now at $12.-$12.25. The downtrend remains intact and until we get an actual market turn, these rallies should still be viewed as selling opportunities.
WHEAT:
SovEcon, which estimates this year's Russian wheat output at 58 million – 59 million tonnes, last week flagged the potential for a sub-50m-tonne harvest next year.
Heading into winter, the Russian wheat crop is struggling to germinate in unseasonably dry regions. There are now many thoughts that their 2015 wheat crop may not produce 50million tonnes."
On the charts: Like the other grains, we have reached our initial target of $5.40 on the December wheat contract. The short term indicators remain positive while the long term indicators, which dictate the actual trend, are slowly turning up. Our next challenge is the $5.60-$5.70 level and if we manage to reach that area we could look back at our first week of October as the bottom. As for the support area, we are now focusing on the $5.00 area on the December chart. Short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down.
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
2014 harvest prices as of the close of October 29 are as follows:
SWW at $225.94/mt ($6.15/bu), HRW at $230.06/mt ($6.26/bu),
HRS at $221.61/mt ($6.03/bu), SRW at $211.51/mt ($5.76/bu).
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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