Wednesday, October 29, 2014
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Dec
3.75
?
        22
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov
10.44
?
89
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec
5.38
?
16
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec
5.83
?
13
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec
6.07
?
2
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
Dec
0.8918
?
20
points




CORN:
With the anticipation of record corn yields and multi-year lows in prices, it is likely that most farmers decided that corn was not the way to go for 2015. The market is now showing its disapproval by signaling through higher prices that the demand is still strong and that there is a need for 88-90 million acres to be planted in order to meet the demands for next year.
On the charts, our overhead resistance we spoke about back on October 8 is now a reality.  We are trading in the $3.70 range and should encounter some resistance. The next target is $3.80-$3.90 basis the lead month and once that level is breached we have our eye on the 50% retracement and a gap at the $4.10 level on the December chart. Initial support is now pegged at $3.50 basis the lead month. Short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down.  
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures touched a high of $10.45 per bushel, up $1.40 since the beginning of October low of just $9.04. The move was predicated by a combination of a slow harvest and short covering by speculators.  This is the highest level seen since September 2 of this year.

On the charts, we have reached our overhead resistance as suggested in our October 8 commentary of $10-$10.40.  As of this writing we are trading at $10.40 per bushel based on the November contract.  We have closed the gap at the $10.45 closed, which technically opens the door for a further rally.  Major resistance is now at $12.-$12.25. The downtrend remains intact and until we get an actual market turn, these rallies should still be viewed as selling opportunities.  





WHEAT:

SovEcon, which estimates this year's Russian wheat output at 58 million – 59 million tonnes, last week flagged the potential for a sub-50m-tonne harvest next year.
Heading into winter, the Russian wheat crop is struggling to germinate in unseasonably dry regions. There are now many thoughts that their 2015 wheat crop may not produce 50million tonnes."
On the charts:  Like the other grains, we have reached our initial target of $5.40 on the December wheat contract.   The short term indicators remain positive while the long term indicators, which dictate the actual trend, are slowly turning up. Our next challenge is the $5.60-$5.70 level and if we manage to reach that area we could look back at our first week of October as the bottom. As for the support area, we are now focusing on the $5.00 area on the December chart. Short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down. 
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


2014 harvest prices as of the close of October 29 are as follows:
SWW at $225.94/mt ($6.15/bu), HRW at $230.06/mt ($6.26/bu), 
HRS at $221.61/mt ($6.03/bu), SRW at $211.51/mt ($5.76/bu).



       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 29 2014