[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Oct 15 15:03:51 EDT 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, October 15
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1289 up 0.0053
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
DEC14 HI 3.58 1/4 DEC15 HI 4.03
LOW 3.46 1/2 LOW 3.92
CLOSE3.47 1/2 Down 9 1/2 CLOSE 3.92 3/4 Down 9
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC14+MAR15+MAR15
CK Low 0.30 3.78 148.62 -0.10 3.83 150.68
CK High 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
CK Avg 0.33 -0.12 3.81 149.93 -0.10 -0.61 3.83 150.68
Essex Cty 0.45 3.93 154.52 0.00 3.93 154.62
Mdsx Low 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Mdsx High 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Mdsx Avg 0.35 -0.10 3.83 150.58 -0.10 -0.61 3.83 150.68
Hensall 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.08 3.85 151.67
Bruce 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Putnam 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Burford 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Port Perry 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Norfolk 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Palmerston 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Varna 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.05 3.88 152.65
Trenton 0.30 3.78 148.62 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Winchester 0.65 4.13 162.39 0.05 3.98 156.59
North Gower 0.55 4.03 158.46 -0.05 3.88 152.65
Huron FOB 0.30 3.78 148.62N/A
Kent FOB 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Lamb FOB 0.35 3.83 150.58 -0.10 3.83 150.68
Mdsx FOB 0.70N/A N/A N/A 4.18 164.36N/A
FOB SW Que 1.00 4.48 176.17N/A
Track 1.10 4.58 180.11N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.50 3.93 154.52 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 0.55 0.50 0.50 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing 1.15 0.95 0.50 0.60 4.63 182.08N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.10 1.00 0.55 0.65 4.58 180.11N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.05 0.60 0.70 N/A
W O Feed 1.49 1.34 4.97 195.46
US Rep 1.60 1.45 5.08 199.79
Toledo El. -0.19 3.28 129.24 -0.49 3.44 135.48
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.46 3.94155 0.21 4.14162 8/9
MID SD CRN 0.32 1/2 3.80
HI SD CRN 0.35 3.82 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1289 up 0.0053
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV14 HI 9.78 1/2 NOV15 HI 9.91 3/4
LOW 9.50 3/4 LOW 9.67 1/2
CLOSE9.52 1/2 Down 12 1/4 CLOSE 9.69 1/4 Down 12
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN15
CK Low 0.54 10.07 369.830.30 9.99 367.16
CK High 0.65 10.18 373.870.40 10.09 370.84
CK Average 0.59 -0.6610.12 371.660.35 -0.9210.04 368.94
Essex Cty 0.77 10.30 378.280.53 10.22 375.61
Mdsx Low 0.52 10.05 369.090.35 10.04 369.00
Mdsx High 0.60 10.13 372.030.37 10.06 369.73
Mdsx Average 0.56 -0.6910.09 370.560.36 -0.9110.05 369.37
Hensall 0.58 10.10 371.110.33 10.02 368.08
Bruce 0.60 10.13 372.030.35 10.04 369.00
Putnam 0.60 10.13 372.030.35 10.04 369.00
Burford 0.55 10.08 370.190.40 10.09 370.84
Port Perry 0.52 10.05 369.090.37 10.06 369.73
Norfolk 0.60 10.13 372.030.30 9.99 367.16
Palmerston 0.50 10.03 368.360.30 9.99 367.16
Varna 0.55 10.08 370.190.30 9.99 367.16
Trenton 0.50 10.03 368.360.15 9.84 361.65
Winchester 1.15 10.68 392.240.70 10.39 381.86
North Gower 1.28 10.81 397.020.84 10.53 387.00
Huron FOB 0.60 10.13 372.03 N/A
Kent FOB 0.60 10.13 372.030.30 9.99 367.16
Lambton FOB 0.60 10.13 372.030.30 9.99 367.16
Middlesex FOB0.83 N/A N/A N/A 10.36 380.480.51 10.20 374.88
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 1.12 1.12 1.14 1.21 10.65 391.140.89 10.58 388.84
Windsor 1.00 0.94 1.12 1.24 10.53 386.730.75 10.44 383.70
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 1.03 N/A N/A N/A 10.56 387.830.85 10.54 387.37
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 1.88 11.41 419.061.13 10.82 397.66
Toledo El. -0.24 9.29 341.26-0.43 9.26 340.35
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1289 up 0.0053
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC14 HI 5.16 1/4 JUL15 HI 5.42 1/4
LOW 5.01 1/2 LOW 5.28 1/2
CLOSE 5.06 Down 3 1/4 CLOSE 5.32 1/4 Down 3 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC14 HI 5.71 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.97 1/4
LOW 5.59 LOW 5.89 1/2
CLOSE 5.64 3/4 Up 1/2 CLOSE 5.92 Up 1 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.78 0.89 0.38 0.23
CAD $/bu 5.84 5.95 5.44 5.88
CAD $/tonne 214.40 218.56 199.86 215.96
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A -0.06 N/A N/A N/A -0.29 N/A
London 0.94 0.66 0.04 N/A 0.29 0.58 -0.27 N/A
Hensall 1.15 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.35 N/A -0.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -0.20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A -0.15 N/A N/A N/A -0.50 N/A
Norwich 1.15 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.35 N/A -0.30 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 1.15 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.35 N/A -0.30 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.60 0.05 N/A N/A 0.50 -0.32 N/A
Brigden N/A 0.60 0.05 N/A N/A 0.50 -0.32 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.80 0.04 0.21 N/A 0.67 -0.20 N/A
Varna 1.10 0.75 0.05 N/A 0.30 0.55 -0.30 N/A
Mitchell 1.15 0.80 0.10 N/A 0.35 0.60 -0.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A 0.18 N/A N/A N/A -0.18
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 0.55 N/A N/A N/A 0.05 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 2.36N/A 1.00N/A N/A N/A 0.92N/A
Toledo El. N/A 5.14US 5.82CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.47 0.87 0.02 -0.13
CAD $/bu 5.79 6.19 5.34 5.79
CAD $/tonne 212.85 227.39 196.23 212.74
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 285.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 315.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 500.79 - 553.70
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 170.00 - 175.00
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.47 ↑ 4 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 9.52 ↑ 17 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.06 ↓ 1 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.65 - 0 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.93 ↑ 7 cents
Canadian $ Dec 0.8834 ↓ 150 points
CORN:
A rally in corn was widely attributed to concerns over the pace of the U.S. harvest, with rain slowing the gathering of crops which has already been slowed by a cool summer, and a somewhat troubled sowing season.
Heavy rainfall should keep most of the southern and eastern Midwest from any harvest progress until late in the week of October 13. Corn harvest is expected to be 24-25% complete as of October 11weekend versus 38% normal.
On the charts, we mentioned we were looking for a bottoming action in October and with the buy signal on October 6 we could have seen the bottom for the near term. Although short term indicators are positive, we have a lot of headwind and the overhead resistance is $3.50- $3.60 on the December contract while a failure of the $3.15 bottom could result in the continuation of the downtrend.
SOYBEANS:
Like corn, soybean harvest delays have caused the rally that we anticipated last week with prices finding good support at the $9.00 level on November contract and are sitting at $9.65 as of this writing. Current harvest as of October 11 weekend is expected to be about 30% complete on soybeans versus 43% a year ago and 57% normal,
On the charts, the November contract is the lone wolf and has not yet given us a short term buy signal. Overhead resistance still remains strong above $10.00 basis the November contract. The main down-trend remains very much intact and significant rallies are being viewed as selling opportunities until we get confirmation of a trend change.
WHEAT:
Canadian farmers have benefited from the Canadian dollar as of late as the deeply entrenched downward move picks up speed. The Canadian basis have improved significantly in the past few weeks as the U.S. dollar rockets skyward. We are now at five-year lows on our dollar against the U.S greenback. The lower Canadian dollar makes Canadian wheat more attractive for exporting.
On the charts, the buy signal from October 6, which caused prices to rally, is still intact. With harvest issues in the states, we could see more upside over the short term. The $4.65 bottom will now serve as our support area while overhead resistance is still at the $5.15 - $5.25 and major resistance is closer to $5.40-$5.50. The short term indicators are still up while the main trend is still down.
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
2014 harvest prices as of the close of October 15 are as follows:
SWW at $214.55/mt ($5.84/bu), HRW at $218.71/mt ($5.95/bu),
HRS at $216.21/mt ($5.88/bu), SRW at $200/mt ($5.44/bu).
--
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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