[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Oct 15 15:03:51 EDT 2014


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, October 15
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1289 up 0.0053
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.

      DEC14   HI 3.58  1/4                    DEC15    HI 4.03
             LOW 3.46  1/2                            LOW 3.92
            CLOSE3.47  1/2  Down 9 1/2              CLOSE 3.92  3/4  Down 9

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC14+MAR15+MAR15
CK Low       0.30                        3.78 148.62 -0.10         3.83 150.68
CK High      0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
CK Avg       0.33                  -0.12 3.81 149.93 -0.10 -0.61   3.83 150.68
Essex Cty    0.45                        3.93 154.52  0.00         3.93 154.62
Mdsx Low     0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Mdsx High    0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Mdsx Avg     0.35                  -0.10 3.83 150.58 -0.10 -0.61   3.83 150.68
Hensall      0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.08         3.85 151.67
Bruce        0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Putnam       0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Burford      0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Port Perry   0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Norfolk      0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Palmerston   0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Varna        0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.05         3.88 152.65
Trenton      0.30                        3.78 148.62 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Winchester   0.65                        4.13 162.39  0.05         3.98 156.59
North Gower  0.55                        4.03 158.46 -0.05         3.88 152.65
Huron FOB    0.30                        3.78 148.62N/A
Kent FOB     0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Lamb FOB     0.35                        3.83 150.58 -0.10         3.83 150.68
Mdsx FOB     0.70N/A   N/A   N/A         4.18 164.36N/A
FOB SW Que   1.00                        4.48 176.17N/A
Track        1.10                        4.58 180.11N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth   0.45  0.45  0.45  0.50      3.93 154.52  N/A
Sarn-Eth    N/A    0.55  0.50  0.50                 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing   1.15  0.95  0.50  0.60      4.63 182.08N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing  1.10  1.00  0.55  0.65      4.58 180.11N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A    1.05  0.60  0.70                 N/A
W O Feed     1.49                   1.34 4.97 195.46

US Rep       1.60                   1.45 5.08 199.79
Toledo El.  -0.19                        3.28 129.24 -0.49         3.44 135.48

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton     0.46                        3.94155      0.21         4.14162 8/9

MID SD CRN   0.32   1/2                  3.80
HI SD CRN    0.35                        3.82 1/2
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1289 up 0.0053
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.

       NOV14   HI 9.78  1/2           NOV15    HI 9.91  3/4
              LOW 9.50  3/4                   LOW 9.67  1/2
             CLOSE9.52  1/2  Down 12 1/4    CLOSE 9.69  1/4  Down 12

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+JAN1+JAN15
CK Low       0.54                     10.07 369.830.30       9.99 367.16
CK High      0.65                     10.18 373.870.40      10.09 370.84
CK Average   0.59                -0.6610.12 371.660.35 -0.9210.04 368.94
Essex Cty    0.77                     10.30 378.280.53      10.22 375.61
Mdsx Low     0.52                     10.05 369.090.35      10.04 369.00
Mdsx High    0.60                     10.13 372.030.37      10.06 369.73
Mdsx Average 0.56                -0.6910.09 370.560.36 -0.9110.05 369.37
Hensall      0.58                     10.10 371.110.33      10.02 368.08
Bruce        0.60                     10.13 372.030.35      10.04 369.00
Putnam       0.60                     10.13 372.030.35      10.04 369.00
Burford      0.55                     10.08 370.190.40      10.09 370.84
Port Perry   0.52                     10.05 369.090.37      10.06 369.73
Norfolk      0.60                     10.13 372.030.30       9.99 367.16
Palmerston   0.50                     10.03 368.360.30       9.99 367.16
Varna        0.55                     10.08 370.190.30       9.99 367.16
Trenton      0.50                     10.03 368.360.15       9.84 361.65
Winchester   1.15                     10.68 392.240.70      10.39 381.86
North Gower  1.28                     10.81 397.020.84      10.53 387.00
Huron FOB    0.60                     10.13 372.03 N/A
Kent FOB     0.60                     10.13 372.030.30       9.99 367.16
Lambton FOB  0.60                     10.13 372.030.30       9.99 367.16
Middlesex FOB0.83  N/A  N/A  N/A      10.36 380.480.51      10.20 374.88

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     1.12 1.12 1.14 1.21      10.65 391.140.89      10.58 388.84
Windsor      1.00 0.94 1.12 1.24      10.53 386.730.75      10.44 383.70
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton     1.03  N/A  N/A  N/A      10.56 387.830.85      10.54 387.37
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC     1.88                     11.41 419.061.13      10.82 397.66

Toledo El.   -0.24                     9.29 341.26-0.43      9.26 340.35


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1289 up 0.0053
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC14      HI     5.16  1/4             JUL15   HI      5.42  1/4
           LOW    5.01  1/2                     LOW     5.28  1/2
           CLOSE  5.06   Down 3 1/4             CLOSE   5.32  1/4  Down 3 1/2

Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC14      HI     5.71  1/2             JUL15   HI      5.97  1/4
           LOW        5.59                      LOW     5.89  1/2
           CLOSE  5.64  3/4  Up  1/2            CLOSE   5.92   Up 1 1/2

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.78          0.89            0.38          0.23
CAD $/bu              5.84          5.95            5.44          5.88
CAD $/tonne         214.40        218.56          199.86        215.96


Direct MarkHarvest 2014                 Harvest 2015
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    -0.06   N/A    N/A     N/A    -0.29   N/A
London      0.94    0.66   0.04    N/A    0.29    0.58   -0.27   N/A
Hensall     1.15    N/A    0.10    N/A    0.35    N/A    -0.30   N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    -0.20   N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A   0.05    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    -0.15   N/A    N/A     N/A    -0.50   N/A
Norwich     1.15    N/A    0.10    N/A    0.35    N/A    -0.30   N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 1.15    N/A    0.10    N/A    0.35    N/A    -0.30   N/A
Chatham      N/A    0.60   0.05    N/A    N/A     0.50   -0.32   N/A
Brigden      N/A    0.60   0.05    N/A    N/A     0.50   -0.32   N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.80   0.04   0.21    N/A     0.67   -0.20   N/A
Varna       1.10    0.75   0.05    N/A    0.30    0.55   -0.30   N/A
Mitchell    1.15    0.80   0.10    N/A    0.35    0.60   -0.30   N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   -0.30   N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    N/A     N/A   0.18    N/A     N/A     N/A   -0.18

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A    0.55    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.05    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     2.36N/A        1.00N/A    N/A     N/A        0.92N/A

Toledo El. N/A                          5.14US          5.82CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.47          0.87            0.02         -0.13
CAD $/bu              5.79          6.19            5.34          5.79
CAD $/tonne         212.85        227.39          196.23        212.74

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             285.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats              315.00
Bayport Barley            270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            500.79 - 553.70
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      170.00 - 175.00


Wednesday, October 15, 2014
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Dec	3.47	↑	4	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Nov	9.52	↑	17	cents
Wheat CBOT	Dec	5.06	↓	1	cents
Wheat Minn.	Dec	5.65	-	0	cents
Wheat Kansas	Dec	5.93	↑	7	cents
 	 	 			 
Canadian $	Dec	0.8834	↓	150	points




CORN:
A rally in corn was widely attributed to concerns over the pace of the U.S. harvest, with rain slowing the gathering of crops which has already been slowed by a cool summer, and a somewhat troubled sowing season.
Heavy rainfall should keep most of the southern and eastern Midwest from any harvest progress until late in the week of October 13. Corn harvest is expected to be 24-25% complete as of October 11weekend versus 38% normal.
On the charts, we mentioned we were looking for a bottoming action in October and with the buy signal on October 6 we could have seen the bottom for the near term.  Although short term indicators are positive, we have a lot of headwind and the overhead resistance is $3.50- $3.60 on the December contract while a failure of the $3.15 bottom could result in the continuation of the downtrend.  
SOYBEANS:
Like corn, soybean harvest delays have caused the rally that we anticipated last week with prices finding good support at the $9.00 level on November contract and are sitting at $9.65 as of this writing. Current harvest as of October 11 weekend is expected to be about 30% complete on soybeans versus 43% a year ago and 57% normal,
On the charts, the November contract is the lone wolf and has not yet given us a short term buy signal. Overhead resistance still remains strong above $10.00 basis the November contract. The main down-trend remains very much intact and significant rallies are being viewed as selling opportunities until we get confirmation of a trend change. 




WHEAT:

Canadian farmers have benefited from the Canadian dollar as of late as the deeply entrenched downward move picks up speed.  The Canadian basis have improved significantly in the past few weeks as the U.S. dollar rockets skyward. We are now at five-year lows on our dollar against the U.S greenback. The lower Canadian dollar makes Canadian wheat more attractive for exporting. 
On the charts, the buy signal from October 6, which caused prices to rally, is still intact.  With harvest issues in the states, we could see more upside over the short term. The $4.65 bottom will now serve as our support area while overhead resistance is still at the $5.15 - $5.25 and major resistance is closer to $5.40-$5.50. The short term indicators are still up while the main trend is still down. 
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


2014 harvest prices as of the close of October 15 are as follows:
SWW at $214.55/mt ($5.84/bu), HRW at $218.71/mt ($5.95/bu), 
HRS at $216.21/mt ($5.88/bu), SRW at $200/mt ($5.44/bu).


--

-- 
John Jordan 
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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