Wednesday, October 15, 2014
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Dec
3.47
?
4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov
9.52
?
17
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec
5.06
?
1
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec
5.65
-
0
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec
5.93
?
7
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
Dec
0.8834
?
150
points




CORN:
A rally in corn was widely attributed to concerns over the pace of the U.S. harvest, with rain slowing the gathering of crops which has already been slowed by a cool summer, and a somewhat troubled sowing season.
Heavy rainfall should keep most of the southern and eastern Midwest from any harvest progress until late in the week of October 13. Corn harvest is expected to be 24-25% complete as of October 11weekend versus 38% normal.
On the charts, we mentioned we were looking for a bottoming action in October and with the buy signal on October 6 we could have seen the bottom for the near term.  Although short term indicators are positive, we have a lot of headwind and the overhead resistance is $3.50- $3.60 on the December contract while a failure of the $3.15 bottom could result in the continuation of the downtrend.  
SOYBEANS:
Like corn, soybean harvest delays have caused the rally that we anticipated last week with prices finding good support at the $9.00 level on November contract and are sitting at $9.65 as of this writing. Current harvest as of October 11 weekend is expected to be about 30% complete on soybeans versus 43% a year ago and 57% normal,
On the charts, the November contract is the lone wolf and has not yet given us a short term buy signal. Overhead resistance still remains strong above $10.00 basis the November contract. The main down-trend remains very much intact and significant rallies are being viewed as selling opportunities until we get confirmation of a trend change. 




WHEAT:

Canadian farmers have benefited from the Canadian dollar as of late as the deeply entrenched downward move picks up speed.  The Canadian basis have improved significantly in the past few weeks as the U.S. dollar rockets skyward. We are now at five-year lows on our dollar against the U.S greenback. The lower Canadian dollar makes Canadian wheat more attractive for exporting. 
On the charts, the buy signal from October 6, which caused prices to rally, is still intact.  With harvest issues in the states, we could see more upside over the short term. The $4.65 bottom will now serve as our support area while overhead resistance is still at the $5.15 - $5.25 and major resistance is closer to $5.40-$5.50. The short term indicators are still up while the main trend is still down. 
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


2014 harvest prices as of the close of October 15 are as follows:
SWW at $214.55/mt ($5.84/bu), HRW at $218.71/mt ($5.95/bu), 
HRS at $216.21/mt ($5.88/bu), SRW at $200/mt ($5.44/bu).



       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 15 2014