[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Todd Austin Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Sep 7 15:58:58 EDT 2011
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, September 7
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9883 down 0.0027
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
DEC11 HI 7.65 DEC11 HI 7.65
LOW 7.43 3/4 LOW 7.43 3/4
CLOSE7.48 Down 7 3/4 CLOSE 7.48 Down 7 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC11+DEC11+MAR12
CK Low 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
CK High 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
CK Avg 0.25 0.34 7.73 304.32 -0.50 -0.43 6.98 274.79
Essex Cty 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Mdsx Low 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Mdsx High 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Mdsx Avg 0.25 0.34 7.73 304.32 -0.50 -0.43 6.98 274.79
Hensall 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Bruce 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Putnam 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Princeton 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Durham 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.55 6.93 272.82
Norfolk 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Palmerston 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Varna 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Trenton 0.10 7.58 298.41 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Winchester 0.40 7.88 310.22 -0.30 7.18 282.66
North Gower 0.50 7.98 314.16 -0.70 6.78 266.92
Huron FOB 0.20 7.68 302.35 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Kent FOB 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Lamb FOB 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Mdsx FOB 0.25N/A N/A -0.55 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98 274.79
FOB SW Que N/A -0.60 6.88 270.85
Track 0.60 8.08 318.10N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth 0.55 0.75 -0.45 -0.60 8.03 316.13 -0.45 7.03 276.76
Aylmer-Eth 0.00 0.05 -0.40 -0.40 7.48 294.47 -0.40 7.08 278.73
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A N/A -0.30 -0.30 7.18 282.66
Cllngwd-Eth 0.45N/A N/A N/A 7.93 312.19-0.25* 7.23 284.63
London-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.50 -0.50 6.98 274.79
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.65 -0.45 7.03 276.76
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.70 -0.45 7.03 276.76
W O Feed 0.69 0.70 8.17 321.64
US Rep 0.65 0.66 8.13 320.06
Toledo El. 0.02 7.50 295.25 -0.24 7.24 285.11
TRANSFER
Sarnia 0.25 7.73 304.32 -0.50 6.98274 4/5
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.50 6.98274 4/5
Hamilton N/A -0.50 6.98274 4/5
MID SD CRN -0.50 6.98
HI SD CRN -0.50 6.98
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9883 down 0.0027
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV11 HI 14.34 3/4 NOV11 HI 14.34 3/4
LOW 14.12 1/2 LOW 14.12 1/2
CLOSE14.20 3/4 Down 1 3/4 CLOSE 14.20 3/4 Down 1 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN12
CK Low -0.65 13.56 498.15-1.25 12.96 476.11
CK High -0.52 13.69 502.93-1.12 13.09 480.88
CK Average -0.58 -0.4113.63 500.91-1.18-1.0513.03 478.74
Essex Cty -0.65 13.56 498.15-1.15 13.06 479.78
Mdsx Low -0.57 13.64 501.09-1.24 12.97 476.47
Mdsx High -0.47 13.74 504.77-1.15 13.06 479.78
Mdsx Average -0.53 -0.3613.68 502.56-1.19-1.0613.02 478.31
Hensall -0.58 13.63 500.91-1.20 13.01 477.94
Bruce -0.55 13.66 501.83-1.15 13.06 479.78
Putnam -0.55 13.66 501.83-1.15 13.06 479.78
Princeton -0.55 13.66 501.83-1.06 13.15 483.09
Durham -0.43 13.78 506.24-1.24 12.97 476.47
Norfolk -0.52 13.69 502.93-1.09 13.12 481.99
Palmerston N/A -1.30 12.91 474.27
Varna -0.70 13.51 496.32-1.35 12.86 472.43
Trenton N/A -1.20 13.01 477.94
Winchester -0.75 13.46 494.48-1.05 13.16 483.46
North Gower -0.55 13.66 501.83-0.80 13.41 492.64
Huron FOB -0.35 13.86 509.18-1.05 13.16 483.46
Kent FOB -0.55 13.66 501.83-1.14 13.07 480.15
Lambton FOB -0.55 13.66 501.83-1.14 13.07 480.15
Middlesex FOB-0.27 N/A N/A N/A 13.94 512.12-1.02 13.19 484.56
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 0.05 N/A N/A -0.66 14.26 523.87-0.61 13.60 499.62
Windsor -0.27 N/A N/A -0.56 13.94 512.12-0.86 13.35 490.44
Winchester -0.65 13.56 498.15-0.95 13.26 487.13
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.10 N/A N/A N/A 14.11 518.36-0.70 13.51 496.32
Pt. Stanley -0.15 14.06 516.52-1.18 13.03 478.68
Sarnia -0.57 13.64 501.09-0.71 13.50 495.95
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.55 13.66 501.83-0.55 13.66 501.83
Toledo El. -0.42 13.79 506.79-0.42 13.79 506.74
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9883 down 0.0027
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC11 HI 7.74 JUL12 HI 8.23
LOW 7.46 LOW 8.04 1/4
CLOSE 7.51 1/2 Down 8 1/2 CLOSE 8.10 3/4 Down 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC11 HI 9.47 1/4 SEP12 HI 9.11 1/4
LOW 9.22 1/4 LOW 8.95 3/4
CLOSE 9.26 1/2 Down 5 1/4 CLOSE 8.97 1/4 Down 1 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.63 0.26 -0.63 -0.21
CAD $/bu 6.88 7.77 6.88 9.06
CAD $/tonne 252.89 285.56 252.89 332.76
Direct MarkHarvest 2011 Harvest 2012
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.21 -0.95 N/A N/A -0.50 -1.20 N/A
London -0.83 -0.24 -0.98 N/A N/A -0.44 -1.28 N/A
Hensall -0.85 N/A -0.95 N/A -0.50 N/A -1.20 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -0.90 N/A N/A N/A -1.50 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -1.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A -1.04 N/A N/A N/A -1.35 N/A
Norwich -0.75 N/A -0.95 N/A -0.50 N/A -1.20 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.85 N/A -0.95 N/A -0.50 N/A -1.20 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.21 -0.92 N/A N/A -0.48 -1.27 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.21 -0.92 N/A N/A -0.48 -1.27 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.01 -0.82 -0.31 N/A -0.20 -1.09 -0.40
Varna -0.90 -0.20 -1.00 N/A -0.50 -0.30 -1.30 N/A
Mitchell -0.85 -0.25 -0.95 N/A -0.50 -0.35 -1.20 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.81 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A -0.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia -0.61 0.13 -0.66 N/A -0.40 -0.20 -1.04 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.55 N/A N/A N/A -0.55 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -1.00 N/A N/A N/A -1.00 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.40 -0.48N/A 0.03N/A -0.27N/A
Toledo El. 7.19US 7.10CA 7.83US 7.76CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 12 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.47 0.13 -0.86 -0.48
CAD $/bu 7.64 8.23 7.24 8.50
CAD $/tonne 280.70 302.56 266.14 312.21
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 300.00
Bayport Oats 320.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 423.18 - 426.49
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 220.00 - 235.00
Wednesday September 7, 2011
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
7.48
↓
19 ½
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
14.20 ¾
↓
36 ¾
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
7.51 ½
↓
40
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
9.46 ½
↓
20
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
8.95
↓
36
cents
Canadian $
Dec.
1.01230
↓
66
points
There is speculation that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will hinder the
global economy, reducing demand for food, livestock feed and fuel made from
crops. Increasing European debt problems depressed commodity demand. Commodity
markets remain beset by concerns over global growth and the risks of sliding
into another recession, with the situation made worse by the lack of any
solution to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.
CORN
Illinois and other top corn-growing states showed the adverse effects of high
temperatures during the crop’s critical pollination phase during July, with
many ears failing to fully fill out with kernels. The U.S. corn and soybean 2011
crops seem to be definitely smaller than everyone first thought, market watchers
say.
Conventional wisdom has the U.S. estimate smaller than the USDA's last estimate
of 153 bushels per acre. Recent private estimates have the U.S. corn yield
ranging from 143-151 bushels per acre. Crop forecaster Informa Economics pegged
the U.S. corn crop yield at 151.0 bushels per acre, down from its previous
forecast of 158.0, and they pegged production at 12.711 billion bushels, below
its previous forecast of 13.353 billion. By contrast, FC Stone, recently
forecast the corn yield at146.3 bushels per acre.
SOYBEANS
Agricultural firm information group Informa has lowered its 2011/12 U.S.
soybean yield estimate to 41.5 bushels per acre, down from its previous estimate
of 42.5 but above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USA) latest figure of
41.4. At this level U.S. stocks would be considered tight.
China recently indicated that it will increase soybean stockpiles to ensure
supplies. There is continued talk that China is extending their import needs for
Soybeans through the purchase of South America Soybeans into a time frame when
there is normally a switch to new crop US soybeans.
WHEAT
Members of the Minneapolis Grain Exchange voted 262-6 in favour of a rule
change announced last month that will allow delivery of non-U.S. wheat against
MGEX spring wheat futures. Pending approval by the U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission, MGEX said the rule change allowing non-U.S. wheat deliveries
will become effective no later than the May 2013 contract month.
Buyers like Egypt quickly returned to buying wheat from Russia after the export
ban was lifted. Egypt is now Russia's largest customer and its purchases account
for the bulk of grain waiting at Russian ports to be loaded onto ships. Demand
for Russia's grain has surged since the export ban expired on July 1, putting
heavy pressure on the country's infrastructure.
Harvest contract prices for September 7, 2011 at the close of the market, are
as follows:
SWW at $252.36 per tonne ($6.87 /bu.), SRW at $252.36 per tonne ($6.87 /bu.),
HRW at $284.97 per tonne ($7.76 /bu.), and HRS at $332.07 per tonne ($9.04
/bu.).
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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