[Farmmarketnews] Todd Austin Grain Commentary for Thursday, June 30, 2011

Thu Jun 30 09:57:29 EDT 2011

Wednesday June 29, 2011

Commodity
Period
Price  
Weekly Movement

Corn CBOT
July
6.98   
↑
20 ¾             
cents

Soybeans CBOT
July
13.34 ¼   
↑
4 
cents

Wheat CBOT
July 
 6.41 ¼  
↑
3  
cents

Wheat Minn.
July 
8.76
↓
26 ¾           
cents

Wheat Kansas
July 
7.45  
↓
58 ½   
cents

Canadian $
Jun. 
 1.0284
↑
17 
points

CORN
Corn Futures continued to recover after falling sharply from all-time highs set
at the beginning of this month. Analysts said a renewed focus on the current
tight supplies and challenges facing the new U.S. crop are fuelling the price
strength.Traders are positioning themselves ahead of the much anticipated USDA
report on June 30th. This report is expected to reaffirm that supplies are tight
and that new crop will be smaller than originally expected after wet weather
prevented farmers from planting all their land. However, the Acreage report
shows corn plantings at 92.3 million acres, this represents an increase of 5
percent from last year, and is the second highest planted acreage in the United
States since 1944.  
SOYBEANS
Exports and crushing have slowed in recent months, as a result of poor crushing
margins along with decreased exports which can be attributed to increased demand
from South America. Demand for Soy meal also slowed on sluggish demand by U.S.
livestock producers as they are taking advantage of cheaper alternatives.
The soybean market is being supported by short-covering ahead of the June 30
Acreage and Stocks reports; weakness in the dollar and strength in crude oil are
also supportive factors. The decline in crop condition ratings last week and
uncertainty about acreage are bullish market factors. Soybean acres came in at
75.2 million acres; this represents a decline of 3 percent from last year and
was below trade expectations.
WHEAT
Prevented spring wheat planting in parts of the northern Plains are expected to
cut wheat acreage estimates. Trade estimates in a Dow Jones survey show wheat
plantings at 56.6 million acres, down from the USDA’s 57.7 million acre estimate
from earlier this month. Spring wheat acres did come in at 13.6 million acres,
but all wheat acres were down slightly from trade estimates.
July wheat futures contract calculation will not trigger VSR (variable storage
rate) in this roll to September futures. This is the first time since the VSR
storage rates began last year that they will not trigger an additional storage
cost. Information regarding VSR can be found on the CME website www.cmegroup.com
( http://www.cmegroup.com/ ).
Harvest contract prices for June 29, 2011 at the close of markets are as
follows:
SWW at $230.19 per tonne ($6.26/bu.), SRW at $223.04 per tonne ($6.07/bu.), HRW
at $255.20 per tonne ($6.95 /bu.), and HRS at $289.23 per tonne ($7.87 /bu.).

John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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