[Farmmarketnews] Todd Austin Grain Commentary for June 23, 2011

[Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report]

Wednesday June 22, 2011

Commodity
Period
Price  
Weekly Movement

Corn CBOT
July
6.77 ½  
↓
48 ¼           
cents

Soybeans CBOT
July
13.30 ¼ 
↓
37 ¾ 
cents

Wheat CBOT
July 
6.38 ¼ 
↓
70 ¼ 
cents

Wheat Minn.
July 
9.02 ¾ 
↓
34 ¼         
cents

Wheat Kansas
July 
8.03 ½ 
↓
15 ¾ 
cents

 
 
 
 

Canadian $
Jun. 
1.0267
↑
91
points

 
CORN
Outside markets, namely Greek and EU debt crisis, is affecting equity and
commodity markets. Traders are reluctant to take new positions in these markets,
as the threat of EU instability looms. This has resulted in continued weakness
in the commodity markets.
Corn fell the most in six weeks on bets that favourable weather will boost
yields in the U.S. The National Weather Service computer models forecast a
shorter period of hot weather next week; therefore, less heat should boost
Midwest crop development.  Increased soil-moisture reserves from rain this week
along with showers in the next two weeks, should maintain favourable growing
conditions.
Corn emergence is closer to completion, according to today’s USDA weekly
progress report of the 18 primary producing states. Last week, 6 percent of the
entire corn crop emerged, bringing the total emerged crop to 97 percent. This
compares to a five-year historical average estimate of 99 percent
SOYBEANS
Fundamentally, there is little that is friendly to soybeans. Planting progress
has lagging behind when compared to the five-year average, but that is expected
due to producers concentrating on the planting of wheat and corn. Of the 18
primary soybean producing states, 94 percent of soybeans have been planted and
82 percent have emerged. The five-year historical average is 93 percent planted
and 86 percent emerged.
A friendly aspect in the soybean market is more tied to concerns that canola
acreage will be smaller this year, and that current canola demand will start to
move to soybeans.
The USDA is reporting old crop soybean sales to China are switching over to new
crop as the trade continues to lower their expectations of old crop export
numbers.
WHEAT
The planting of the 2011 spring wheat crop increased to 91 percent this past
week. However, it is still considerably behind the five-year historical average
and 2010 estimate of 100 percent. Above average precipitation has also placed
spring wheat emergence behind schedule. The USDA estimates that 83 percent of
the crop has emerged; compared to a five-year historical average of 99 percent.
 
The USDA reported harvested winter wheat estimates this week at 31 percent of
the total crop, compared to a five-year average of 22 percent. There was little
improvement in the condition of the winter wheat crop; 36 percent of the crop is
in good or excellent condition, while 41 percent is in poor or very poor
condition.
 
Harvest contract prices for June 22, 2011 at the close of markets are as
follows:
SWW at $226.56 per tonne ($6.17/bu.), SRW at $215.83 per tonne ($5.87 /bu.),
HRW at $251.61 per tonne ($6.85 /bu.), and HRS at $286.76 per tonne ($7.80
/bu.).
 
 
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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