[Farmmarketnews] Todd Austin Grain Commentary

[Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report]

Wheat CBOT
July 
7.08 ½          
↓
50 ¾      
cents

Wheat Minn.
July 
9.37         
↓
68 ½        
cents

Wheat Kansas
July 
8.19 ¼         
↓
72 ¼       
cents

 
 
 
 

Canadian $
Jun. 
1.0176   
↓
82 
points

 
CORN
Corn planting has finally caught up with the five-year average pace and
emergence trails the average by only 5 percentage points, according to USDA's
Crop Progress report for the week ended June 12. The U.S. Agriculture Department
reported late Monday that 69 percent of the corn crop was in good-to-excellent
condition and 31 percent was in fair-to-very-poor condition. At this time in
2010, 77 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition and 23 percent
was in fair-to-very-poor condition.
Corn prices have rallied above wheat on international futures exchanges for the
first sustained period since 1996. Over the past week and a half, since the
recent USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was
released, corn has remained on top for the first continuous period since the mid
1990’s.
 
SOYBEANS
An estimated 87 percent of soybeans were planted, compared with the average of
89 percent in the previous five years. The soybean acreage forecasts were not
changed in the June WASDE report. The market's attention will now turn more to
yield prospects. 
The markets are focusing on rapid planting progress and improving crop
conditions. For the most part, those prospects will be based on the USDA's
weekly estimates of crop conditions. The June 30 USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks
reports will provide additional price direction.
Palm oil advanced after a recent slump in prices widened the discount to
soybean oil to the highest in almost three years, increasing the appeal of the
tropical oil for food uses. These discounts would potentially result in
price-sensitive countries shifting away from soy oil and back to palm oil.
WHEAT
Spring wheat planting lagged the five-year average, due to delays caused by
rain and cool weather, especially in Montana and North Dakota. About 68 percent
was in good-to-excellent condition, compared with 86 percent at this time in
2010.
On Tuesday, the CWB said between 2.4 and 3.2 million hectares of farmland is
still unseeded across the Prairies this year due to wet weather. The wheat board
is estimating production of all wheat at 20.3 million tonnes, which is below the
five-year average of 22.4 million tonnes.
 
Harvest contract prices for June 15, 2011 at the close of markets are as
follows:
SWW at $244.90 per tonne ($6.67/bu.), SRW at $237.68 per tonne ($6.47 /bu.),
HRW at $268.37 per tonne ($7.30 /bu.), and HRS at $328.58 per tonne ($8.94
/bu.).
 
 
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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