[Farmmarketnews] Todd Austin Grain Commentary

[Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report]

Wednesday June 1, 2011

Commodity
Period
Price  
Weekly Movement

Corn CBOT
July
7.58 ½                
↑
16 ¼       
cents

Soybeans CBOT
July
13.86 ¼        
↑
9 ¼        
cents

Wheat CBOT
July 
7.59 ¼        
↓
37 ¼    
cents

Wheat Minn.
July 
10.05 ½         
↓
14 ½      
cents

Wheat Kansas
July 
8.91 ½        
↓
36 ¼    
cents

 
 
 
 

Canadian $
Jun. 
1.0258   
↑
37 
points

 
CORN
Corn planting and emergence continue to lag the five-year average by 9 and 12
percentage points, respectively, according to the USDA Crop Progress report for
the week ended May 29. This planting progress indicates that there are still
nearly 13 million acres unplanted. 
Corn condition was reported for the first time this week at 6 percent poor to
very poor, 31percent fair, 53 percent good and 10 percent excellent. These
numbers are less favourable than the corresponding numbers from last year. 
With news that Russia may lift their export ban on grains, global demand for
U.S. corn exports may decline as some countries buy wheat from Russia to feed
livestock.
SOYBEANS
Soybean planting is 20 percentage points behind average at 51 percent. Soybean
emergence is 12 percentage points behind average. The planting report was
considered neutral to bullish, as the percent planted also tallied in below the
pre-report estimate of 59 percent complete.
Weekly export inspections for soybeans have dropped below the level needed to
reach the USDA projection of 1.55 billion bushels for the year ending on August
31. Inspections for the four weeks ended May 26 averaged 8 million bushels per
week, compared to the 11.5 million average needed to reach the USDA projection.
The domestic soybean crush pace continues to be slow with the reported April
crush at the lowest level for the month since 2004.
WHEAT
Wheat prices are hit hard after Russia indicated it will begin exporting wheat
again, nearly a year after a drought decimated more than one-third of its crop.
Russia says it will lift the export ban effective July 1. Russia’s winter wheat
harvest is good and spring planting is up 10 percent. The significance of this
move is the possibility that the Russia could export an additional 15 to 20
million metric tonnes of grain. Wheat exports would make up the majority of that
total.
 
Grain users remain concerned about poor weather reducing global output. Drought
has reduced wheat output in the U.S. Southern Plains and Western Europe, while
the U.S. Northern Plains are too wet to plant wheat.  
Harvest contract prices for June 1, 2011 at the close of the markets are as
follows:
SWW at $258.60 per tonne ($7.04/bu.), SRW at $253.20 per tonne ($6.89 /bu.),
HRW at $283.76 per tonne ($7.72 /bu.), and HRS at $329.07 per tonne ($8.96
/bu.).
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577

Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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