[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jan 20 16:09:00 EST 2011
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, January 20
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0001 up 0.0062
Chicago corn closed moderately higher to higher.
MAR11 HI 6.54 3/4 DEC11 HI 5.76 3/4
LOW 6.27 1/2 LOW 5.61
CLOSE6.54 Up 12 3/4 CLOSE 5.76 Up 7 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAY11
CK Low -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
CK High -0.88 5.66 222.82 -0.90 4.86 191.33
CK Avg -0.90 -0.90 5.64 222.17 -0.90 -0.91 4.86 191.33
Essex Cty -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Mdsx Low -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Mdsx High -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Mdsx Avg -0.90 -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 -0.91 4.86 191.33
Hensall -0.89 5.65 222.43 -0.89 4.87 191.72
Bruce -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Putnam -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Princeton -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Durham -0.95 5.59 220.07 -0.95 4.81 189.36
Norfolk -0.88 5.66 222.82 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Trenton -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.95 4.81 189.36
Winchester -0.80 5.74 225.97 -0.75 5.01 197.23
North Gower -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Huron FOB -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.88 4.88 192.12
Kent FOB -0.88 5.66 222.82 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Lamb FOB -0.88 5.66 222.82 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Mdsx FOB -0.90 -0.90 -0.90 -0.85 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
FOB SW Que -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.65 5.11 201.17
Track -0.50 6.04 237.78N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.75 5.01 197.23
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.75 5.01 197.23
Aylmer-Eth N/A -0.80N/A N/A 5.35 210.62N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.60 -0.70 -0.55 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.70N/A N/A N/A 5.84 229.91-0.80* 4.96 195.27
London-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.30 208.65N/A 4.97 195.66
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.45 5.31 209.05
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.45 5.31 209.05
W O Feed -0.44 -0.44 6.10 240.15
US Rep 0.10 0.10 6.64 261.41
Toledo El. -0.16 6.38 251.17 -0.47 5.29 208.23
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.90 5.64 222.04 -0.90 4.86 191.33
Pt. Stanley -1.15 5.39 212.19 -0.95 4.81 189.36
Hamilton -0.95 5.59 220.07 -0.80 4.96195 1/4
MID SD CRN -0.89 5.65
HI SD CRN -0.88 5.66
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0001 up 0.0062
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
MAR11 HI 14.21 NOV11 HI 13.46
LOW 13.83 1/2 LOW 13.10 1/2
CLOSE14.14 1/4 Up 2 3/4 CLOSE 13.41 3/4 Up 5 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAY1+MAY11
CK Low -1.36 12.78 469.68-1.23 12.19 447.81
CK High -1.07 13.07 480.33-1.15 12.27 450.75
CK Average -1.17 -1.1712.98 476.80-1.19-1.2112.23 449.21
Essex Cty -1.17 12.97 476.66-1.16 12.26 450.39
Mdsx Low -1.36 12.78 469.68-1.20 12.22 448.92
Mdsx High -1.10 13.04 479.23-1.18 12.24 449.65
Mdsx Average -1.21 -1.2212.93 475.19-1.19-1.2112.23 449.28
Hensall -1.13 13.02 478.31-1.20 12.22 448.92
Bruce -1.10 13.04 479.23-1.20 12.22 448.92
Putnam -1.10 13.04 479.23-1.20 12.22 448.92
Princeton -1.28 12.86 472.62-1.24 12.18 447.45
Durham -1.23 12.91 474.45-1.21 12.21 448.55
Norfolk -1.02 13.12 482.17-1.11 12.31 452.22
Trenton -1.20 12.94 475.56-1.10 12.32 452.59
Winchester -0.86 13.28 488.05-0.87 12.55 461.04
North Gower -0.95 13.19 484.74-0.95 12.47 458.10
Huron FOB -1.00 13.14 482.90-1.10 12.32 452.59
Kent FOB -1.07 13.07 480.33-1.17 12.25 450.02
Lambton FOB -1.07 13.07 480.33-1.17 12.25 450.02
Middlesex FOB-1.13-1.11-1.09-1.04 13.01 478.13-1.02 12.40 455.53
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.82-0.82-0.77-0.70 13.32 489.52-0.65 12.77 469.13
Windsor -0.69-0.69-0.69-0.79 13.45 494.29-0.78 12.64 464.35
Winchester -0.95 13.19 484.74-0.90 12.52 459.94
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.95 N/A N/A N/A 13.19 484.74-0.80 12.62 463.61
Pt. Stanley -1.35 12.79 470.04-1.25 12.17 447.08
Sarnia -0.87 13.27 487.68-0.81 12.61 463.25
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.35 13.79 506.79-0.25 13.17 483.82
Toledo El. -0.28 13.86 509.35-0.53 12.89 473.50
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0001 up 0.0062
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR11 HI 8.05 3/4 JUL11 HI 8.54 1/2
LOW 7.82 LOW 8.33 3/4
CLOSE 8.03 1/2 Up 6 1/4 CLOSE 8.53 1/4 Up 4
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
MAR11 HI 9.21 3/4 SEP11 HI 9.32
LOW 9.00 3/4 LOW 9.09 3/4
CLOSE 9.20 Up 8 3/4 CLOSE 9.30 Up 10 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.75 -0.20 -0.60 -0.49
CAD $/bu 7.29 7.84 7.44 8.71
CAD $/tonne 267.84 288.06 273.35 319.86
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.80 -1.10 N/A N/A -1.15 -2.05 N/A
London -0.69 -0.69 -1.04 N/A -1.12 -1.12 -2.02 N/A
Hensall -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.20 N/A -2.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.05 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.30
Essex N/A N/A -1.00 N/A N/A N/A -2.01 N/A
Norwich -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.10 N/A -2.10 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.10 N/A -2.10 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.70 -1.05 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.03 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.70 -1.05 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.03 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.48 -1.10 -0.15 N/A -0.98 -1.98 -0.79
Mitchell -0.70 -0.60 -1.05 N/A -1.20 -1.15 -2.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.14 N/A N/A N/A -1.72
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.20
TERMINAL
Sarnia -0.82 -0.32 -0.72 N/A -1.10 -1.10 -1.75 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.55 N/A N/A N/A -1.32 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -1.00 N/A N/A N/A -1.80 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.71 -0.20 N/A 0.26 0.01 -0.69 N/A
Toledo El. 7.66US 7.66CA 7.80US 7.82CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.09 -0.74 -1.54 -0.99
CAD $/bu 7.44 7.79 6.99 8.31
CAD $/tonne 273.54 286.42 256.97 305.46
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 280.00 - 290.00
Bayport Oats 320.00
Bayport Barley 260.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 418.11 - 423.63
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 195.00 - 215.00
Wednesday 19 January 2011
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Mar.
6.5925
↑
28 1/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan.
14.1325
↓
1 3/4
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar.
7.9325
↑
22 3/4
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar.
9.0600
↑
28 1/2
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar.
8.7650
↑
24 1/2
cents
Canadian $
Mar.
10.0270
↑
90148
points
CORN
Corn had a choppy week eventually finishing ahead. Funds are clearly very
nervous about 2011 supply, as they extend their record long position out to
427,000 contracts.
However the trade is starting to see signs of demand rationing following the
recent corn price surge. Ethanol production margins are near zero while cattle
feeding margins have also collapsed. The trade realizes that the US only needs
to see minimal amounts of old crop demand rationing to end the year with tight
but adequate ending stocks.
After a record corn crop, the market was surprised to see China seeking to
import feed again this year. China has started buying feed wheat from Australia
which is reportedly trading for $8 – $14 a tonne below US export feed corn.
This is likely to curb US corn exports to China for the time being.
Recent rains have stabilised Argentina’s crop prospects. Still private
analysts are projecting an Argentina corn crop at 18.3 to 20 mmt, well below the
USDA’s current 23.5 mmt forecast.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans finished the week almost unchanged while corn continued to surge. The
trade is watching this soy-corn spread closely. Many now believe soybean values
must gain vs corn in a desperate attempt to increase total plantings by spring.
Recent rain in Argentina has helped to stabilise soybean production potential.
Private analysts are estimating a crop from 43.9 to 47.0 mmt, still well below
USDA’s 50.5 mmt forecast. However a potentially larger Brazilian crop may
offset Argentina’s losses.
The trade will be focusing on Friday’s Informa planting estimates, which may
see 2011 soybean acres decline on account of higher winter wheat plantings in
the US. This would keep the 2011 soybean supply tight if not impossible. Beyond
this release the trade will turn its attention to the USDA Forum on February
24th, eager to see how the agency balances the numbers to solve what looks like
an unworkable supply/demand equation.
Forecasts still believe the Western Hemisphere soybean situation is headed
towards unprecedented tightness by March 2012. This situation is not able to
tolerate anything less than record acreage expansion, good weather and high
yields.
WHEAT
Wheat prices rose to new heights during the week as the trade talks of possible
further deterioration in the quality of wheat in Australia’s southern
wheat-belt following heavy flooding. This situation will make global supplies of
quality wheat even tighter. However downgrades will increase supply into the
feed market, as is already being seen with Australian feed wheat undercutting US
corn in some export markets.
The US Soft Red Winter wheat basis continues to ratchet higher while spreads
widen further stimulating elevator operators to carry scarce inventories.
The trade is talking of the possibility of some winterkill possible in the
Midwest with temperatures at or below zero this week.
Contract prices for December 19th, 2011 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $262.26 per tonne ($7.14/bu.), SRW at $267.74 per tonne ($7.29/bu.), HRW
at $282.34 per tonne ($7.68/bu.), and HRS at $312.56 per tonne ($8.51/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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