[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jan 13 16:26:25 EST 2011
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, January 13
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9868 down 0.0096
Chicago corn closed higher.
MAR11 HI 6.49 1/2 DEC11 HI 5.72 3/4
LOW 6.33 1/4 LOW 5.62
CLOSE6.42 1/2 Up 11 1/2 CLOSE 5.70 1/2 Up 10 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAY11
CK Low -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.90 4.81 189.16
CK High -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.85 4.86 191.13
CK Avg -0.85 -0.80 5.58 219.48 -0.89 -0.85 4.81 189.49
Essex Cty -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.85 4.86 191.13
Mdsx Low -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.90 4.81 189.16
Mdsx High -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.85 4.86 191.13
Mdsx Avg -0.85 -0.80 5.58 219.48 -0.88 -0.84 4.82 189.82
Hensall -0.87 5.56 218.89 -0.89 4.82 189.56
Bruce -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.90 4.81 189.16
Putnam -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.90 4.81 189.16
Princeton -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.85 4.86 191.13
Durham -0.90 5.53 217.51 -0.95 4.76 187.20
Norfolk -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.90 4.81 189.16
Trenton -0.90 5.53 217.51 -0.95 4.76 187.20
Winchester -0.80 5.63 221.45 -0.75 4.96 195.07
North Gower -1.00 5.43 213.57 -0.90 4.81 189.16
Huron FOB -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.85 4.86 191.13
Kent FOB -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.90 4.81 189.16
Lamb FOB -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.90 4.81 189.16
Mdsx FOB -0.85 -0.80 -0.85 -0.80 5.58 219.48 -0.90 4.81 189.16
FOB SW Que -0.81 5.62 221.05 -0.57 5.14 202.16
Track -0.38 6.05 238.18N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.70 5.01 197.04
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.65 5.06 199.01
Aylmer-Eth -0.60 -0.60 -0.65 -0.60 5.83 229.32N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.50 -0.55 -0.45 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.70N/A N/A N/A 5.73 225.38-0.80* 4.91 193.10
London-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.65 5.30 208.65 -0.45 5.26 206.88
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.40 5.31 208.85
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.35 -0.40 5.31 208.85
W O Feed -0.42 -0.41 6.01 236.41
US Rep 0.10 0.11 6.53 256.88
Toledo El. -0.16 6.27 246.70 -0.47 5.24 206.23
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.85 5.58 219.48 -0.85 4.86 191.13
Pt. Stanley -0.89 5.54 217.90 -0.83 4.88 191.92
Hamilton -0.72 5.71 224.60 -0.67 5.04198 2/9
MID SD CRN -0.85 5.57 1/2
HI SD CRN -0.85 5.57 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9868 down 0.0096
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
MAR11 HI 14.32 1/2 NOV11 HI 13.27 1/4
LOW 14.13 LOW 13.08
CLOSE14.16 Up 1 CLOSE 13.12 1/2 Up 4 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAY1+MAY11
CK Low -1.25 12.91 474.36-1.30 11.83 434.49
CK High -1.18 12.98 476.93-1.11 12.02 441.48
CK Average -1.22 -1.1012.94 475.39-1.23-1.1311.89 436.99
Essex Cty -1.08 13.08 480.61-1.14 11.99 440.37
Mdsx Low -1.25 12.91 474.36-1.30 11.83 434.49
Mdsx High -1.21 12.95 475.83-1.16 11.97 439.64
Mdsx Average -1.23 -1.1112.93 474.97-1.24-1.1411.89 436.70
Hensall -1.25 12.91 474.36-1.30 11.83 434.49
Bruce -1.25 12.91 474.36-1.30 11.83 434.49
Putnam -1.25 12.91 474.36-1.30 11.83 434.49
Princeton -1.14 13.02 478.40-1.18 11.95 438.90
Durham -1.29 12.87 472.89-1.28 11.85 435.23
Norfolk -1.15 13.01 478.04-1.19 11.94 438.54
Trenton -1.30 12.86 472.52-1.10 12.03 441.84
Winchester -1.05 13.11 481.71-1.00 12.13 445.52
North Gower -1.00 13.16 483.55-1.00 12.13 445.52
Huron FOB -1.05 13.11 481.71-1.25 11.88 436.33
Kent FOB -1.20 12.96 476.20-1.25 11.88 436.33
Lambton FOB -1.20 12.96 476.20-1.25 11.88 436.33
Middlesex FOB-1.20-1.15-1.15 N/A 12.96 476.20-1.14 11.99 440.37
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.85-0.85-0.80-0.70 13.31 489.06-0.80 12.33 452.87
Windsor -0.74-0.74-0.73-0.79 13.42 493.10-0.91 12.22 448.82
Winchester -0.94 13.22 485.75-0.93 12.20 448.09
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.90 N/A N/A N/A 13.26 487.22-0.85 12.28 451.03
Pt. Stanley -1.35 12.81 470.69-1.30 11.83 434.49
Sarnia -0.92 13.24 486.49-0.84 12.29 451.40
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.36 13.80 507.06-0.26 12.87 472.71
Toledo El. -0.28 13.88 510.09-0.53 12.60 462.93
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9868 down 0.0096
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
MAR11 HI 7.87 1/2 JUL11 HI 8.39 1/2
LOW 7.69 1/4 LOW 8.22
CLOSE 7.83 1/2 Up 13 CLOSE 8.37 1/2 Up 14 1/2
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
MAR11 HI 8.97 1/4 SEP11 HI 9.09 1/4
LOW 8.80 LOW 8.91
CLOSE 8.93 3/4 Up 16 1/4 CLOSE 9.08 Up 17
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.81 -0.26 -0.66 -0.57
CAD $/bu 7.03 7.57 7.17 8.37
CAD $/tonne 258.14 278.17 263.60 307.41
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.75 -1.10 N/A N/A -1.15 -2.05 N/A
London -0.77 -0.77 -1.12 N/A -1.09 -1.09 -2.04 N/A
Hensall -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.20 N/A -2.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.95 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.30
Essex N/A N/A -1.03 N/A N/A N/A -2.09 N/A
Norwich -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.20 N/A -2.10 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.20 N/A -2.10 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.80 -1.12 N/A N/A -1.20 -2.08 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.80 -1.12 N/A N/A -1.20 -2.08 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.59 -1.09 -0.37 N/A -1.09 -1.86 -0.96
Mitchell -0.70 -0.60 -1.05 N/A -1.20 -1.15 -2.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.19 N/A N/A N/A -1.70
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.00
TERMINAL
Sarnia -0.85 -0.36 -0.80 N/A -1.14 -0.85 -1.79 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.60 N/A N/A N/A -1.35 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -1.00 N/A N/A N/A -1.80 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.53 -0.36 N/A 0.19 -0.06 -0.76 N/A
Toledo El. 7.46US 7.39CA 7.65US 7.59CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.15 -0.81 -1.60 -1.06
CAD $/bu 7.22 7.57 6.77 8.02
CAD $/tonne 265.32 278.09 248.91 294.68
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 275.00 - 280.00
Bayport Oats 320.00
Bayport Barley 260.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 422.85 - 428.37
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 180.00 - 215.00
Wednesday 12 January 2011
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Mar.
6.3100
↑
11 3/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Mar.
14.1500
↑
29
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar.
7.7050
↓
37 3/4
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar.
8.7750
↓
21 1/2
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar.
8.5200
↓
21 1/4
cents
Canadian $
Mar.
1.0122
↑
103
points
CORN
Corn continued to rise with the USDA lowering its production estimate by 93
million bushels from the November figure. The yield estimate has been dropped
from 154.3 to 152.8, some 8 bu/acre below trend.
The USDA redistributed 100 million bushels from corn feed use to ethanol
production. Exports were left unchanged to pull US ending stocks down to a
historically tight 745 million bushels. This is almost 1 billion bushels below
last year’s carryout.
Most traders see the possibility of an even larger corn for ethanol usage
figure to pull US ending stocks down to no more than three weeks worth of usage
at the end of the year. Even with expanded plantings next year and trend yields,
US stocks will remain at near demand rationing levels. The year to year acreage
expansion required across all three crops is unprecedented and many will see
this as highly unlikely, leaving at least one crop desperately short of supplies
by next year.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures surged higher as the market was surprised by the USDA lowering
its final US soybean production estimate by 46 million bushels. US soy use was
also cut by 16 million bushels to project ending stocks of 140 million bushels
which is very tight but still acceptable.
South American production was cut by 1.5 mmt, however the trade is fearing
further cuts are likely in the February update with hot conditions continuing in
Argentina and reports of irreversible losses emerging. Some analysts are
predicting an Argentine crop as small as 40 – 45 mmt vs the USDA’s 50.5mmt
estimate. This would create an impossibly tight US supply/demand situation.
The trade is watching the continued deterioration in margins for livestock
feeding and biodiesel production in Europe. Meanwhile Argentina expects to
increase biodiesel capacity from 1.8 to 2.5 mmt next year.
WHEAT
Wheat values lost ground in the lead into the USDA report, but afterward was
pulled higher by corn and soybeans. The USDA estimated winter wheat plantings at
41 million acres vs 37.4 million last year, which was generally in-line with the
trade’s expectations. This type of winter plantings with increased abandonment
and lower yields could produce a national US wheat crop near 2.1 billion bushels
next year.
World wheat stocks are predicted to decline 21 mmt year this year. In the US,
wheat ending stocks are projected at 818 million bushels, with the USDA dropping
feed use by 10 million bushels and increasing export forecasts by 50 million
bushels.
An arctic blast has brought cold temperatures to US HRW areas prompting fears
of additional winterkill. Meanwhile, the Texas wheat crop is rated 45% poor with
the crop condition index down 17% from last year.
Food security concerns are emerging around the world. Algeria is asking for
prompt shipment on contracts to quell food riots there, while Saudi Arabia is
reportedly starting to build food reserve stocks. The French Agricultural
Minister has hinted the country may seek to limit exports to address wheat
shortages, however later reversed his comments.
Contract prices for December 13th, 2011 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $252.82 per tonne ($6.88/bu.), SRW at $258.27 per tonne ($7.03/bu.), HRW
at $272.82 per tonne ($7.42/bu.), and HRS at $300.81 per tonne ($8.19/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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