[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jan 6 15:59:31 EST 2011
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, January 6
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9954 up 0.0007
Chicago corn closed moderately lower to lower.
MAR11 HI 6.21 1/2 DEC11 HI 5.60 1/4
LOW 6.00 1/4 LOW 5.49 1/4
CLOSE6.02 Down 17 1/4 CLOSE 5.50 Down 8 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAY11
CK Low -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
CK High -0.78 5.24 206.29 -0.80 4.70 185.03
CK Avg -0.80 -0.79 5.22 205.63 -0.80 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Essex Cty -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Mdsx Low -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Mdsx High -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Mdsx Avg -0.80 -0.79 5.22 205.50 -0.80 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Hensall -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Bruce -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Putnam -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Princeton -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Durham -0.90 5.12 201.57 -0.85 4.65 183.06
Norfolk -0.78 5.24 206.29 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Trenton -0.85 5.17 203.53 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Winchester -0.75 5.27 207.47 -0.75 4.75 187.00
North Gower -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Huron FOB -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Kent FOB -0.78 5.24 206.29 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Lamb FOB -0.78 5.24 206.29 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Mdsx FOB -0.80 -0.75 -0.75N/A 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
FOB SW Que -0.75 5.27 207.47 -0.60 4.90 192.90
Track -0.35 5.67 223.22N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.65 4.85 190.94
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.50 5.00 196.84
Aylmer-Eth -0.60 -0.60 -0.65 -0.60 5.42 213.38N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.50 -0.55 -0.45 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.60N/A N/A N/A 5.42 213.38-0.7* 4.80 188.97
London-Cas -0.65 -0.55 -0.65 -0.65 5.37 211.41 -0.50 5.00 196.84
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A -0.45 -0.40 -0.40 5.10 200.78
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.35 -0.40 5.10 200.78
W O Feed -0.37 -0.37 5.65 222.43
US Rep 0.20 0.20 6.22 244.87
Toledo El. -0.12 5.90 232.28 -0.47 5.03 198.02
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Pt. Stanley -0.80 5.22 205.50 -0.75 4.75 187.00
Hamilton -0.65 5.37 211.41 -0.55 4.95194 7/8
MID SD CRN -0.79 5.23
HI SD CRN -0.78 5.241
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9954 up 0.0007
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
MAR11 HI 13.98 3/4 NOV11 HI 13.00 3/4
LOW 13.76 LOW 12.84
CLOSE13.78 Down 15 1/2 CLOSE 12.86 Down 9 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAY1+MAY11
CK Low -1.05 12.73 467.75-1.15 11.71 430.27
CK High -1.00 12.78 469.58-1.04 11.82 434.31
CK Average -1.03 -1.0012.75 468.48-1.10-1.1011.76 432.18
Essex Cty -0.88 12.90 473.99-0.99 11.87 436.15
Mdsx Low -1.05 12.73 467.75-1.15 11.71 430.27
Mdsx High -0.94 12.84 471.79-1.04 11.82 434.31
Mdsx Average -0.99 -0.9712.79 469.83-1.09-1.0911.77 432.47
Hensall -1.05 12.73 467.75-1.15 11.71 430.27
Bruce -1.05 12.73 467.75-1.15 11.71 430.27
Putnam -1.05 12.73 467.75-1.15 11.71 430.27
Princeton -0.95 12.83 471.42-0.98 11.88 436.52
Durham -0.96 12.82 471.05-1.06 11.80 433.58
Norfolk -0.95 12.83 471.42-1.02 11.84 435.05
Trenton -0.90 12.88 473.26-1.00 11.86 435.78
Winchester -0.90 12.88 473.26-0.95 11.91 437.62
North Gower -0.90 12.88 473.26-0.90 11.96 439.45
Huron FOB -0.85 12.93 475.10-1.05 11.81 433.94
Kent FOB -1.00 12.78 469.58-1.08 11.78 432.84
Lambton FOB -1.00 12.78 469.58-1.08 11.78 432.84
Middlesex FOB-0.77-0.72-0.67 N/A 13.01 478.04-0.97 11.89 436.88
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.53-0.43-0.38-0.30 13.25 486.85-0.65 12.21 448.64
Windsor -0.50-0.50-0.49-0.54 13.28 487.96-0.79 12.07 443.50
Winchester -0.77 13.01 478.04-0.82 12.04 442.39
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.70 N/A N/A N/A 13.08 480.61-0.65 12.21 448.64
Pt. Stanley -1.15 12.63 464.07-1.10 11.76 432.11
Sarnia -0.62 13.16 483.55-0.71 12.15 446.44
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.10 13.68 502.65-0.15 12.71 467.01
Toledo El. -0.28 13.50 496.06-0.53 12.33 453.05
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9954 up 0.0007
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR11 HI 8.09 3/4 JUL11 HI 8.47
LOW 7.87 3/4 LOW 8.27 1/4
CLOSE 7.89 Down 19 1/4 CLOSE 8.28 1/4 Down 18
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR11 HI 9.00 1/2 SEP11 HI 8.99
LOW 8.81 3/4 LOW 8.85 1/4
CLOSE 8.83 3/4 Down 15 1/4 CLOSE 8.87 3/4 Down 12
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.76 -0.21 -0.61 -0.52
CAD $/bu 7.13 7.68 7.28 8.32
CAD $/tonne 261.85 282.02 267.35 305.77
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.75 -1.05 N/A N/A -1.05 -1.95 N/A
London -0.83 -0.73 -1.03 N/A -0.95 -1.00 -1.95 N/A
Hensall -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.10 N/A -2.00 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.95 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.60
Essex N/A N/A -0.96 N/A N/A N/A -1.97 N/A
Norwich -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.10 N/A -2.00 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.70 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.10 N/A -2.00 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.70 -1.08 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.03 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.70 -1.08 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.03 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.52 -1.02 -0.78 N/A -1.02 -1.82 -0.88
Mitchell -0.70 -0.60 -1.05 N/A -1.10 -1.05 -2.00 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.03 N/A N/A N/A -1.60
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.00
TERMINAL
Sarnia -0.75 -0.40 -0.80 N/A -1.04 -0.74 -1.63 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.55 N/A N/A N/A -1.50 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -1.00 N/A N/A N/A -1.95 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.58 -0.31 N/A 0.25 0.00 -0.70 N/A
Toledo El. 7.46US 7.45CA 7.45US 7.45CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.10 -0.75 -1.55 -1.00
CAD $/bu 7.18 7.53 6.73 7.88
CAD $/tonne 263.91 276.77 247.38 289.45
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 275.00
Bayport Oats 320.00
Bayport Barley 250.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 414.59 - 416.79
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 180.00 - 200.00
Wednesday 5 January 2011
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Mar.
6.1925
↓
4 3/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan.
13.8600
↑
20
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar.
8.0820
↑
9
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar.
8.9900
↑
15 3/4
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar.
8.7325
↑
15 1/2
cents
Canadian $
Mar.
1.0019
↑
38
points
CORN
Corn futures finished slightly lower after an erratic week of trading. The
trade is adjusting their positions ahead of the January 12 USDA production and
stocks report.
Many expect the report to show larger corn use for ethanol projections which
would help offset any increase in corn production. Nevertheless the trade fears
US stocks will be pulled down to bare minimum levels triggering some old crop
demand rationing.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation’s Food Price Index is at the highest
level ever, surpassing the previous record in 2008. The organisation expects
record corn prices to head even higher.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has delayed plans to set
position limits on agriculture futures. Members of the commission appear to be
split on the issue; however a compromise position is expected in the coming
week.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures recovered to finish higher for the week as traders reflect on
bullish long term supply and demand fundamentals. The trade was perhaps also
influenced by a Goldman Sachs analyst suggesting soybeans are an attractive long
term investment, preferable to wheat.
Crush margins have reportedly improved in China, which is expected to trigger
more imports in the near future.
The US will need 5 to 6 million more soybean acres by spring or the
supply/demand situation will force prices sharply higher in a demand rationing
situation.
The South American weather outlook is mixed with some soybean areas in
Argentina receiving beneficial moisture while the overall forecast is for below
normal precipitation and hotter temperatures.
WHEAT
Wheat values continued to climb this week on the back of forecasts for a major
cold wave in Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska in the coming week. The trade is
watching the situation closely to see if the area receives the required snowfall
to insulate the crop against winterkill. This is occurring while the trade was
already apprehensive over the mediocre to poor condition of the US hard red
winter wheat crop.
Farm Futures magazine is estimating US winter wheat plantings at 42.3 million
vs 37.4 last
year. This type of production would find US stocks declining significantly year
to year, particularly after factoring in abandonment and a possible yield
decline; however stocks would still be maintained at adequate levels.
The trade is becoming less concerned over any possible quality or quantity
impact to the Australian wheat crop after recent torrential rains, although the
expected disruptions to logistics may impact the market.
Contract prices for December 5th, 2011 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $268.72 per tonne ($7.31/bu.), SRW at $274.22 per tonne ($7.46/bu.), HRW
at $288.88 per tonne ($7.86/bu.), and HRS at $311.15 per tonne ($8.47/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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