[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Ahmed Chilmeran Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Dec 14 15:51:08 EST 2011
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, December 14
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0406 up 0.0122
Chicago corn closed lower.
MAR12 HI 5.98 DEC12 HI 5.54
LOW 5.80 1/4 LOW 5.39
CLOSE5.80 3/4 Down 13 3/4 CLOSE 5.40 1/2 Down 14
1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR12+MAR12+MAY12
CK Low -0.35 5.46 214.85 -0.55 4.86 191.13
CK High -0.30 5.51 216.82 -0.50 4.91 193.10
CK Avg -0.33 -0.57 5.48 215.71 -0.51 -0.73 4.90 192.77
Essex Cty -0.40 5.41 212.88 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Mdsx Low -0.35 5.46 214.85 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Mdsx High -0.30 5.51 216.82 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Mdsx Avg -0.33 -0.57 5.48 215.84 -0.50 -0.73 4.91 193.10
Hensall -0.28 5.53 217.80 -0.48 4.93 194.09
Bruce -0.30 5.51 216.82 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Putnam -0.30 5.51 216.82 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Burford -0.35 5.46 214.85 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Port Perry -0.40 5.41 212.88 -0.55 4.86 191.13
Norfolk -0.32 5.49 216.03 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Palmerston -0.30 5.51 216.82 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Varna -0.30 5.51 216.82 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Trenton -0.25 5.56 218.79 -0.55 4.86 191.13
Winchester -0.35 5.46 214.85 -0.50 4.91 193.10
North Gower -0.19 5.62 221.15 -0.29 5.12 201.37
Huron FOB N/A N/A
Kent FOB -0.32 5.49 216.03 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Lamb FOB -0.32 5.49 216.03 -0.50 4.91 193.10
Mdsx FOB -0.35 -0.25 -0.20N/A 5.46 214.85 -0.50 4.91 193.10
FOB SW Que 0.05 5.86 230.60 -0.10 5.31 208.85
Track 0.18 5.98 235.52N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.50 4.91 193.10
Jhnstwn-Eth -0.25 0.25 0.30 0.35 5.56 218.79 -0.25 5.16 202.94
Aylmer-Eth -0.05 0.05 0.10 0.05 5.76 226.66 N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.05 5.81 228.63N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.10N/A N/A N/A 5.71 224.69-0.30* 5.11 200.97
London-Cas -0.05 -0.05 0.00 0.00 5.76 226.66 -0.30 5.11 200.97
Pt.Colb-Cas -0.05 0.10 0.15 0.15 5.76 226.66 -0.25 5.16 202.94
Cardnl-Cas -0.40 0.10 0.15 0.15 5.41 212.88 -0.25 5.16 202.94
W O Feed 0.19 0.15 6.00 236.11
US Rep 0.75 0.71 6.56 258.16
Toledo El. -0.06 5.74 226.17 -0.45 4.96 195.15
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.00 5.81228 5/8 -0.20 5.21205
MID SD CRN -0.32 1/2 5.48 1/4
HI SD CRN -0.30 5.50 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0406 up 0.0122
Chicago soybeans closed moderately lower.
JAN12 HI 11.19 1/4 NOV12 HI 11.42 1/2
LOW 10.94 1/4 LOW 11.15 3/4
CLOSE11.00 Down 18 1/2 CLOSE 11.21 1/2 Down 20
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAR1+MAY12
CK Low -0.40 10.60 389.48-0.65 10.57 388.20
CK High -0.33 10.67 392.06-0.50 10.72 393.71
CK Average -0.37 -0.8310.63 390.59-0.59-1.0510.63 390.52
Essex Cty -0.18 10.82 397.57-0.39 10.83 397.75
Mdsx Low -0.39 10.61 389.85-0.60 10.62 390.03
Mdsx High -0.35 10.65 391.32-0.54 10.68 392.24
Mdsx Average -0.37 -0.8310.63 390.59-0.57-1.0410.65 391.14
Hensall -0.35 10.65 391.32-0.60 10.62 390.03
Bruce -0.35 10.65 391.32-0.60 10.62 390.03
Putnam -0.35 10.65 391.32-0.60 10.62 390.03
Burford -0.39 10.61 389.85-0.54 10.68 392.24
Port Perry -0.42 10.58 388.75-0.57 10.65 391.14
Norfolk -0.28 10.72 393.89-0.52 10.70 392.97
Palmerston -0.35 10.65 391.32-0.60 10.62 390.03
Varna -0.50 10.50 385.81-0.65 10.57 388.20
Trenton -0.45 10.55 387.65-0.55 10.67 391.87
Winchester -0.32 10.68 392.42-0.31 10.91 400.69
North Gower -0.24 10.76 395.36 N/A
Huron FOB N/A N/A
Kent FOB -0.33 10.67 392.06-0.58 10.64 390.77
Lambton FOB -0.33 10.67 392.06-0.58 10.64 390.77
Middlesex FOB0.08 -0.18-0.18-0.20 11.08 407.12-0.43 10.79 396.28
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 0.30 0.05 0.00 0.00 11.30 415.20-0.10 11.12 408.41
Windsor 0.04 0.04 -0.10-0.15 11.04 405.65-0.16 11.06 406.20
Winchester -0.32 10.68 392.42-0.29 10.93 401.43
TRANSFER
Hamilton 0.50 N/A N/A N/A 11.50 422.55-0.10 11.12 408.41
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 0.60 11.60 426.230.25 11.47 421.27
Toledo El. -0.19 10.81 397.29-0.60 10.61 389.88
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0406 up 0.0122
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR12 HI 6.02 3/4 JUL12 HI 6.35
LOW 5.79 LOW 6.13 1/4
CLOSE 5.80 3/4 Down 19 3/4 CLOSE 6.15 Down 18 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR12 HI 8.31 SEP12 HI 7.70
LOW 8.13 1/2 LOW 7.60
CLOSE 8.15 3/4 Down 14 1/4 CLOSE 7.61 1/2 Down 15
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.03 0.92 0.29 -0.08
CAD $/bu 5.84 6.73 6.10 8.08
CAD $/tonne 214.63 247.16 224.19 296.92
Direct MarkHarvest 2011 Harvest 2012
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.50 -0.10 N/A N/A 0.50 -0.25 N/A
London -0.07 0.66 0.04 N/A N/A 0.62 -0.16 N/A
Hensall -0.10 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A -0.20 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.70 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.30
Essex N/A N/A -0.06 N/A N/A N/A -0.23 N/A
Norwich -0.10 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A -0.20 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.10 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A -0.20 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.56 0.04 N/A N/A 0.63 -0.16 N/A
Brigden N/A 0.56 0.04 N/A N/A 0.63 -0.16 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.80 -0.02 -0.20 N/A 0.58 -0.25 -0.10
Varna -0.15 0.70 -0.15 N/A 0.20 0.80 -0.25 N/A
Mitchell -0.10 0.60 0.00 N/A 0.00 0.70 -0.20 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.53 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 0.38 N/A N/A N/A -0.55 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.97 0.45N/A 0.36 1.19 0.46N/A
Toledo El. 5.66US 5.89CA 6.12US 6.38CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 12 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.15 0.99 -0.06 0.37
CAD $/bu 6.30 7.14 6.09 7.98
CAD $/tonne 231.56 262.18 223.91 293.38
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 285.00 - 295.00
Bayport Oats 310.00
Bayport Barley 280.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 338.64 - 346.35
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 170.00 - 178.00
Wednesday December 14, 2011
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement - Wednesday to Friday
Corn CBOT
Mar
5.8075
↓
8.50
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan
11.0000
↓
8.00
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar
5.8075
↓
9.00
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar
8.1575
↓
5.75
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar
6.3550
↓
20.50
cents
Canadian $
Mar
0.9596
↓
183.00
points
Last week's summit agreement by the 26 European Union states with Britain
dissenting, had strong overtones but only a short lived positive ripple in
financial markets. German chancellor Angela Merkel and Bundesbank chief Jens
Weidmann echoed the need for European solidarity and to stray away from the
illusion of a silver bullet solution. Other members like France expressed the
need for another summit early in 2012 to discuss growth measures to offset the
currently placed austerity measures. Moody’s credit rating agency intends to
review the ratings of all 27 members of the EU in the first quarter of 2012
after EU leaders offered little to resolve the crisis in last Fridays summit.
Investors are bracing for a possible mass downgrade for all European countries.
A Reuter’s poll suggests a brighter US economic growth in 2012; however it may
be wise to take it with a grain of salt given the present conditions of high
unemployment and a weak housing market. Canadian household debt, the ratio of
household mortgages, consumer credit and loans to disposable income swelled to a
record high in the third quarter with over 150%. According to Mark Carney,
Canada’s central banker this puts Canadians in more debt than their American
and British counterparts and that household debt was is one of the biggest, home
grown risks to the financial system.
CORN
Corn futures traded higher on Tuesday over concerns of adverse weather
conditions in Argentina and Brazil, but lost its modest gains on Wednesday over
European debt fears and ease of global supplies. Forecasts of dryer weather will
reduce soil moisture and increase stress on crops in parts of Argentina,
Paraguay and Brazil according to T-Storm Weather LLC. If drier than normal South
American weather lingers, a lower crop outlook could potentially increase demand
for North American supplies.
SOYBEANS
Soybean prices rose initially on speculation that dry weather may affect crops
in parts of Brazil and Argentina. However, Morgan Stanley lowered its price
forecasts on Wednesday for soybean among other agricultural commodities because
of rising global supplies and European debt concerns. A gap in South American
soybean could potentially be filled with North American supplies.
WHEAT
Wheat fell in Chicago following USDA’s earlier crop report which estimated
higher US ending stock for 2010-11 by 16 million bushels and a record forecast
of 689 million tons for global wheat supplies in 2011-12. A weaker euro showed
signs of boosting European export prospects earlier when Egypt, the world's
largest wheat importer bought 180,000 tonnes of Russian, French and Argentine
wheat in its latest tender. Morgan Stanley cut its price forecasts for wheat and
other agricultural commodities following the USDA’s higher than expected
commodity estimates.
Harvest contract prices for December 14, 2011 at market close, are as follows:
SWW at $214.72 per tonne ($5.84/bu.), SRW at $246.26 per tonne ($6.73/bu.),
HRW at $297.04 per tonne ($8.08 /bu.), and HRS at $224.29 per tonne ($6.10
/bu.).
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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