[Farmmarketnews] Todd Austin Grain Commentary for August 24, 2011

Wed Aug 24 16:20:33 EDT 2011

Wednesday August 24, 2011

Commodity
Period
Price  
Weekly Movement

Corn CBOT
Sept
7.31 ¾ 
↑
20 ¼      
cents

Soybeans CBOT
Sept
13.86 ½       
↑
29 ¾          
cents

Wheat CBOT
Sept 
7.49 ¼ 
↑
21 ¾         
cents

Wheat Minn.
Sept 
9.26
↑
9 ¼      
cents

Wheat Kansas
Sept 
8.35
↑
11 ¾        
cents

Canadian $
Sept. 
1.01090
↓
87 
points

CORN
The condition of the U.S. crop is driving the market. It was stressed
throughout July from hot, and in many places, dry weather. Futures had gained on
speculation that dry weather in the U.S. would limit yields. Preliminary reports
in central Indiana and Nebraska indicated that corn yields may be lower than
last year. There are also thoughts that there will be lower corn yields in Ohio
and South Dakota.
Worsening conditions in July and August reflect the extreme heat and increasing
dryness in the Midwest. Average temperatures in the Midwest were as much as 13
degrees Celsius above normal in July. Farms from south-central Minnesota to Ohio
got less than a third of normal rain since July 1. The corn-ear size is
determined early in the plant’s life cycle, when Midwest flooding and cool
temperatures stunted growth. Heat in July damaged corn reproduction, reducing
the number of kernels on each ear. 
SOYBEANS
The fundamentals for soybeans remain supportive for prices. U.S. pod-setting
soy should receive some rainfall at midweek but more is needed soon and this
week's rain will miss some of the driest crop areas. The U.S. Department of
Agriculture recently reported a decline in condition ratings for U.S. corn and
soybeans.
Worries have shifted to soybeans because it is still in a key growing phase,
whereas the corn crop's key growth period has already passed. Soybeans need rain
in August to develop pods and fill them with beans.
WHEAT
U.S. domestic feed demand is expected to remain strong after the U.S.
Department of Agriculture reported cattle placed on feedlots was again higher
than expectations in July. The number of cattle placements has surged in recent
months, due largely to a severe drought in the southern Plains that has scorched
much of the available grazing land.

Russia has joined the growing list of countries with potential wheat quality
issues, also following concerns in Ukraine, where as little as 40% of wheat may
be of milling grade, according to private analysts. Germany, the European
Union's second-ranked producer of the grain, has compromised quality for a
second year in a row, due to wet weather.
Harvest contract prices for August 24, 2011 at the close of the market, are as
follows:
SWW at $261.17 per tonne ($7.11 /bu.), SRW at $257.56 per tonne ($7.01 /bu.),
HRW at $290.01 per tonne ($7.89 /bu.), and HRS at $321.84 per tonne ($8.76
/bu.).
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577

Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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