[Farmmarketnews] Todd Austin Grain Commentary for Aug. 11, 2011

[Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report]

Wednesday August 10, 2011

Commodity
Period
Price  
Weekly Movement

Corn CBOT
Sept
6.78     
↓
28    
cents

Soybeans CBOT
Sept
12.95 ½       
↓
65       
cents

Wheat CBOT
Sept 
6.85      
↓
25 ½      
cents

Wheat Minn.
Sept 
8.37 ¼        
↓
 7 ½  
cents

Wheat Kansas
Sept 
7.85   
↓
 23     
cents

 
 
 
 

Canadian $
Sept. 
1.0045  
↓
332  
points

 
CORN
According to the CME group, corn futures will be allowed to rise or fall by 40
cents per bushel in daily trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. This represents
an increase over the current 30 cent daily limit. Beginning August 22, the
initial price limit will increase to 40 cents per bushel, and expandable to 60
cents when at least two contracts in a calendar year close at limit offer or
limit bid on the previous trading day.
All eyes will be focused on tomorrow’s USDA report as the trade focus moves to
the upcoming crop report and supply / demand report to be released on August 11.
Last month, the USDA pegged corn yield at 158.7 bushels per acre. Most estimates
since then are estimating closer to 155. 
SOYBEANS
The USDA is expected to lower projections for the upcoming soybean crop, while
projecting comfortable inventories ahead of the fall harvest. The consensus of
industry analysts is that the USDA will trim the yield and production outlook
for the soybean crop from its July forecast. 
A Dow Jones Newswire survey projects the U.S. soybean crop at 3.174 billion
bushels with a yield of 42.8 bushels per acre. July data showed the crop at
3.225 billion bushels with 43.4 bushels per acre.
Soybean stockpiles in the U.S., Argentina and Brazil should rise 21 percent,
according to Oil World. The Hamburg based researcher reports that inventories
will total 57.8 million tonnes on Sept.1, the second highest level ever for that
date, and up from 47.9 million tonnes a year ago.
WHEAT
World stock markets were sent tumbling on fears of a slide back into recession
for the United States, reinforced by a downgrade of the U.S.  credit rating, as
well as the Euro debt crisis. The grain and oilseed markets fell in sympathy
with the selloff in global stocks and commodities.
This past week, Egypt bought Russian wheat for the sixth straight tender.  This
should be viewed as bearish news for North American exporters.  According to a
recent report, U.S. wheat offers were about $4 per tonne lower than those from
Russia, after being closer to $40 to $50 more expensive, earlier this year.
Winter wheat harvest continues in Ontario, with an estimated 80% complete.
Spring wheat harvest has begun in some areas.  Quality remains good overall.
Harvest contract prices for August 10, 2011 at the close of the market, are as
follows:
SWW at $245.08 per tonne ($6.67 /bu.), SRW at $235.93 per tonne ($6.42 /bu.),
HRW at $272.51 per tonne ($7.42 /bu.), and HRS at $300.77 per tonne ($8.19
/bu.).
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577

Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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