[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 21 16:06:30 EDT 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 21
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0233 down 0.0012
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
DEC10 HI 5.79 1/2 DEC11 HI 5.34 1/4
LOW 5.61 3/4 LOW 5.21 3/4
CLOSE5.64 1/4 Down 9 1/4 CLOSE 5.22 3/4 Down 9
1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC10+MAR11+MAR11
CK Low -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.85 4.38 172.33
CK High -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
CK Avg -0.85 -1.01 4.79 188.67 -0.83 -1.02 4.40 173.32
Essex Cty -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
Mdsx Low -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.85 4.38 172.33
Mdsx High -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
Mdsx Avg -0.85 -1.01 4.79 188.67 -0.83 -1.03 4.39 172.99
Hensall -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
Bruce -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.85 4.38 172.33
Putnam -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.85 4.38 172.33
Princeton -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
Durham -0.95 4.69 184.74 -0.85 4.38 172.33
Norfolk -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
Trenton -0.95 4.69 184.74 -0.90 4.33 170.37
Winchester -0.70 4.94 194.58 -0.65 4.58 180.21
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.75 4.48 176.27
Kent FOB -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
Lamb FOB -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
Mdsx FOB -0.90 -0.90 -0.85 -0.80 4.74 186.70 -0.85 4.38 172.33
FOB SW Que -0.50 5.14 202.45 -0.45 4.78 188.08
Track -0.48 5.17 203.44 N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A -0.65 -0.60 -0.60 4.63 182.18
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.45 4.78 188.08
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A -0.90 -0.80 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.75 -0.65 -0.60 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.90 N/A N/A N/A 4.74 186.70 N/A
London-Cas N/A -0.75 -0.85 -0.80 -0.65 4.58 180.21
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A -0.70 -0.80 -0.65 -0.60 4.63 182.18
Cardnl-Cas N/A -0.55 -0.55 -0.50 -0.45 4.78 188.08
W O Feed -0.57 -0.59 5.07 199.70
US Rep -0.15 -0.17 5.49 216.23
Toledo El. -0.39 5.25 206.74 -0.49 4.74 186.61
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.85 4.79 188.67 -0.80 4.43 174.30
Pt. Stanley -0.81 4.83 190.25 -0.73 4.50 177.06
Hamilton -0.76 4.88 192.22 -0.52 4.71185 1/3
MID SD CRN -0.85 4.79 1/4
HI SD CRN -0.85 4.79 1/4
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0233 down 0.0012
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV10 HI 12.23 1/2 NOV11 HI 11.75
LOW 12.01 1/2 LOW 11.58
CLOSE12.01 1/2 Down 10 1/2 CLOSE 11.58 1/4 Down 10 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN11
CK Low -1.30 10.72 393.71-1.02 10.56 388.11
CK High -1.24 10.78 395.91-0.90 10.68 392.51
CK Average -1.27 -1.6210.74 394.74-0.96-1.3910.62 390.24
Essex Cty -1.15 10.87 399.22-0.99 10.59 389.21
Mdsx Low -1.30 10.72 393.71-1.21 10.37 381.12
Mdsx High -1.28 10.74 394.44-0.98 10.60 389.58
Mdsx Average -1.29 -1.6410.72 393.95-1.06-1.4910.52 386.51
Hensall -1.28 10.74 394.63-0.98 10.61 389.76
Bruce -1.30 10.72 393.71-1.00 10.58 388.84
Putnam -1.30 10.72 393.71-1.00 10.58 388.84
Princeton -1.21 10.81 397.02-1.04 10.54 387.37
Durham -1.32 10.70 392.97-1.23 10.35 380.39
Norfolk -1.20 10.82 397.38-0.95 10.63 390.68
Trenton -1.00 11.02 404.73-1.00 10.58 388.84
Winchester -0.95 11.07 406.57-0.85 10.73 394.35
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -1.15 10.87 399.22-0.85 10.73 394.35
Kent FOB -1.25 10.77 395.55-0.95 10.63 390.68
Lambton FOB -1.25 10.77 395.55-0.95 10.63 390.68
Middlesex FOB-1.38-1.07-0.82-0.71 10.64 390.77-1.04 10.54 387.37
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.93-0.67-0.42-0.33 11.09 407.30-0.61 10.97 403.17
Windsor -0.78-0.62-0.26-0.19 11.24 412.82-0.55 11.03 405.37
Winchester -0.59 11.43 419.80-0.57 11.01 404.64
TRANSFER
Hamilton -1.00-0.80-0.70-0.60 11.02 404.73-0.40 11.18 410.89
Pt. Stanley -1.45 10.57 388.20-0.80 10.78 396.19
Sarnia -0.88 11.14 409.14-0.56 11.02 405.01
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 0.18 12.20 448.090.30 11.88 436.61
Toledo El. -0.55 11.47 421.44-0.55 11.03 405.39
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0233 down 0.0012
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC10 HI 6.92 1/4 JUL11 HI 7.57 1/2
LOW 6.67 LOW 7.33 1/4
CLOSE 6.68 3/4 Down 14 1/4 CLOSE 7.34 3/4 Down 14 1/2
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC10 HI 7.50 1/2 SEP11 HI 7.75
LOW 7.27 3/4 LOW 7.55
CLOSE 7.28 1/2 Down 15 1/4 CLOSE 7.56 Down 14 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.14 -0.94 -1.61 -0.92
CAD $/bu 5.54 5.75 5.08 6.36
CAD $/tonne 203.68 211.24 186.67 233.83
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -1.20 -2.10 N/A N/A -1.15 -2.15 N/A
London -1.29 -1.09 -1.95 N/A -1.48 -1.33 -2.15 N/A
Hensall -1.10 N/A -1.95 N/A -1.25 N/A -2.15 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -2.00 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A -1.92 N/A N/A N/A -2.48 N/A
Norwich -1.10 N/A -1.95 N/A -1.25 N/A -2.15 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -1.10 N/A -1.95 N/A -1.25 N/A -2.15 N/A
Chatham N/A -1.05 -1.95 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.00 N/A
Brigden N/A -1.05 -1.95 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.00 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.85 -1.36 -0.60 N/A -1.20 -2.00 -0.80
Mitchell -1.10 -1.10 -1.95 N/A -1.25 -1.15 -2.15 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.33 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.23 -0.82 -1.84 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.65 N/A N/A N/A -1.50 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -2.15 N/A N/A N/A -1.95 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.60 -0.63 N/A 0.53 -0.04 -0.77 N/A
Toledo El. 5.79US 5.95CA 6.22US 6.45CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.08 -0.87 -1.60 -0.97
CAD $/bu 6.27 6.48 5.75 6.59
CAD $/tonne 230.41 238.03 211.36 242.32
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 245.00 - 255.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 245.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 398.38 - 401.69
DDG's FOB Sarnia 170.00 - 180.00
Wednesday October 20, 2010
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Dec. 5.7350 ↑ 4 1/4 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov. 12.1200 ↑ 35 1/2 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec. 6.8300 ↓ 19 1/4 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec. 7.4375 ↓ 7 1/4 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec. 7.1550 ↓ 27 1/2 cents
Canadian $ Dec 0.9716 ↓ 49 points
CORN
Corn futures suffered in the commodity sell-off which followed China’s
surprise decision to raise interest rates, for the first time since 2007.
However by Wednesday the trade had started to view the interest rate decision as
a sign of economic strength and improving demand. As a result corn made a
complete reversal with a strong rally.
For Ontario growers the Chinese interest rate decision has helped to rally the
US dollar and deliver some improvement to local basis levels.
Funds viewed the initial fall in corn futures as the cue to liquidate their
corn contracts, capturing some windfall profits from the recent rally. However
funds still maintain an overall long position.
The US harvest continues with extremely poor yield results in Iowa, however
better results are being seen in Minnesota and North Dakota.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans were less impacted by Tuesday’s commodity sell-off than corn or
wheat, and finishing the week above $12 for the nearby contract. Soybeans
continue to battle with corn to secure the necessary 2011 acreage.
Some in the trade now believe November 2011 soybeans may mimic the 2008 pattern
that saw futures surge towards $14.50 in early March.
The extremely fast pace of the North American soybean and corn harvest is
placing significant demands on grain transportation systems, which is driving
barge freight rates to record highs and placing pressure on export basis.
Despite the higher freight rates, barge transport is up 22% from the same time
last year.
Surging meat demand and extraordinarily strong crushing margins continue to
drive Chinese soybean imports. China currently has 5.6 times more hogs than the
US yet meal use is only 1.6 times larger. As industrial livestock production
grows, higher protein use per animal will significantly increase demand.
WHEAT
Wheat lost ground again this week with speculators showing more enthusiasm for
the corn and soybean markets.
The USDA tightened its world wheat ending stock projection by 1.8% from their
September projection. Ending stocks are now 11% tighter than in 2009/10, while
futures are around 30% higher. The change was largely due to smaller production
in the US (down 1.13 million tonnes) and increased feed demand around the world.
Production estimates were also downgraded for Canada (- 300,00 tonnes) and North
Africa (- 400,000 tonnes), while production estimates were increased for the EU
(+ 500,000 tonnes) and Brazil (+ 150,000 tonnes). The Russian and Ukraine
estimates were unchanged.
The 2010/11 world ending stock projection of 174.66 million tonnes is still
much larger than the ending stocks seen in 2008/09 (165.33 million tonnes) and
2007-08 (124.38 million tonnes).
Contract prices for October 20th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWW at $208.06 per tonne ($5.66/bu.), SRW at $191.13 per tonne ($5.20/bu.), HRW
at $215.59 per tonne ($5.87/bu.), and HRS at $238.44 per tonne ($6.49/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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