[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 14 16:08:41 EDT 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 14
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0036 up 0.0006
Chicago corn closed narrowly mixed.
DEC10 HI 5.79 3/4 DEC11 HI 5.26 1/4
LOW 5.65 3/4 LOW 5.16 1/4
CLOSE5.67 1/4 Down 2 CLOSE 5.19 1/2 Up 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC10+MAR11+MAR11
CK Low -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
CK High -0.90 4.77 187.89 -0.80 4.40 173.02
CK Avg -0.98 -1.02 4.70 184.93 -0.84 -0.92 4.35 171.38
Essex Cty -0.90 4.77 187.89 -0.80 4.40 173.02
Mdsx Low -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Mdsx High -0.90 4.77 187.89 -0.80 4.40 173.02
Mdsx Avg -0.97 -1.01 4.71 185.26 -0.83 -0.91 4.36 171.71
Hensall -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Bruce -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Putnam -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Princeton -0.90 4.77 187.89 -0.80 4.40 173.02
Durham -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Norfolk -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Trenton -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.90 4.30 169.09
Winchester -0.80 4.87 191.82 -0.75 4.45 174.99
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Kent FOB -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Lamb FOB -1.00 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Mdsx FOB -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -0.90 4.67 183.95 -0.85 4.35 171.06
FOB SW Que -0.75 4.92 193.79 -0.55 4.65 182.87
Track -0.60 5.07 199.70 N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A -0.75 -0.60 4.60 180.90
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A -0.90 -0.80 N/A
Sarn-Eth -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.70 4.92 193.79 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -1.15 N/A N/A N/A 4.52 178.04 N/A
London-Cas -0.95 -1.00 -1.10 -1.05 4.72 185.92 -0.90 4.30 169.09
Pt.Colb-Cas -0.95 -0.95 -1.05 -0.90 4.72 185.92 -0.85 4.35 171.06
Cardnl-Cas -0.80 -0.80 -0.80 -0.75 4.87 191.82 -0.70 4.50 176.96
W O Feed -0.58 -0.58 5.09 200.48
US Rep -0.25 -0.25 5.42 213.47
Toledo El. -0.40 5.27 207.45 -0.48 4.72 185.73
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.90 4.77 187.89 -0.80 4.40 173.02
Pt. Stanley -0.97 4.70 185.13 -0.83 4.37 171.84
Hamilton -0.77 4.90 193.00 -0.63 4.57179 5/7
MID SD CRN -0.95 4.72 1/4
HI SD CRN -0.90 4.77 1/4
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0036 up 0.0006
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.
NOV10 HI 11.94 1/2 NOV11 HI 11.60
LOW 11.76 LOW 11.43 1/2
CLOSE11.88 1/2 Up 12 CLOSE 11.52 3/4 Up 6 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN11
CK Low -1.28 10.61 389.67-1.13 10.40 382.04
CK High -1.20 10.69 392.61-0.95 10.58 388.66
CK Average -1.23 -1.3210.66 391.65-1.07-1.2410.46 384.39
Essex Cty -1.16 10.73 394.08-1.03 10.50 385.72
Mdsx Low -1.30 10.59 388.93-1.17 10.36 380.57
Mdsx High -1.23 10.66 391.50-0.99 10.54 387.19
Mdsx Average -1.26 -1.3510.63 390.40-1.09-1.2610.44 383.63
Hensall -1.25 10.64 390.77-1.10 10.43 383.15
Bruce -1.25 10.64 390.77-1.10 10.43 383.15
Putnam -1.25 10.64 390.77-1.10 10.43 383.15
Princeton -1.13 10.76 395.18-1.10 10.43 383.15
Durham -1.32 10.57 388.20-1.19 10.34 379.84
Norfolk -1.18 10.71 393.34-1.10 10.43 383.15
Trenton -0.90 10.99 403.63-0.90 10.63 390.49
Winchester -0.74 11.15 409.51-0.74 10.79 396.37
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -1.20 10.69 392.61-1.05 10.48 384.98
Kent FOB -1.23 10.66 391.50-1.10 10.43 383.15
Lambton FOB -1.23 10.66 391.50-1.10 10.43 383.15
Middlesex FOB-1.08-1.08-0.81-0.78 10.81 397.02-0.95 10.58 388.66
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.80-0.70-0.45-0.38 11.09 407.30-0.73 10.80 396.74
Windsor -0.82-0.47-0.42-0.35 11.07 406.57-0.79 10.74 394.54
Winchester -0.65 11.24 412.82-0.66 10.87 399.31
TRANSFER
Hamilton -1.00 N/A N/A N/A 10.89 399.96-0.55 10.98 403.35
Pt. Stanley -1.45 10.44 383.42-1.00 10.53 386.82
Sarnia -0.75 11.14 409.14-0.57 10.96 402.62
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 0.10 11.99 440.370.20 11.73 430.91
Toledo El. -0.48 11.40 418.93-0.54 10.99 403.79
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0036 up 0.0006
Chicago wheat closed mixed.
DEC10 HI 7.12 1/4 JUL11 HI 7.58 3/4
LOW 6.97 1/2 LOW 7.47 3/4
CLOSE 7.00 3/4 Down 2 CLOSE 7.56 1/4 Up 5 3/4
Minni wheat closed mixed.
DEC10 HI 7.59 SEP11 HI 7.71
LOW 7.47 1/2 LOW 7.59 1/2
CLOSE 7.50 Down 1 CLOSE 7.68 3/4 Up 6 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.26 -1.06 -1.71 -1.05
CAD $/bu 5.75 5.95 5.30 6.45
CAD $/tonne 211.30 218.70 194.64 236.94
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -1.35 -2.15 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.15 N/A
London -1.39 -1.19 -2.04 N/A -1.59 -1.34 -2.24 N/A
Hensall -1.25 N/A -2.10 N/A -1.35 N/A -2.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -2.00 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -1.19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A -2.15 N/A N/A N/A -2.10 N/A
Norwich -1.25 N/A -2.10 N/A -1.35 N/A -2.00 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -1.25 N/A -2.10 N/A -1.35 N/A -2.30 N/A
Chatham N/A -1.20 -2.10 N/A N/A -1.35 -2.30 N/A
Brigden N/A -1.20 -2.10 N/A N/A -1.35 -2.30 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.94 -1.97 -1.09 N/A -1.30 -2.08 -1.24
Mitchell -1.25 -1.20 -2.10 N/A -1.35 -1.20 -2.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.33 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.08 -0.77 -1.74 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -1.65 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -2.15 N/A N/A N/A -2.10 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.46 -0.75 N/A 0.37 -0.19 -0.90 N/A
Toledo El. 6.11US 6.15CA 6.43US 6.53CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.20 -1.00 -1.71 -1.10
CAD $/bu 6.36 6.56 5.85 6.59
CAD $/tonne 233.61 241.07 214.96 242.00
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 240.00 - 245.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 230.00
FOB Hm Cymbal 389.67 - 397.39
DDG's FOB Sarnia 155.00 - 180.00
Wednesday October 13, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
5.6925
↑
80 3/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
11.7650
↑
114 1/2
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
7.0225
↑
44 1/4
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
7.5100
↑
45 3/4
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
7.5100
↑
41
cents
Canadian $
Dec
0.9949
↑
61
points
CORN
Values consolidated after Friday’s limit up reaction to the smaller than
expected US corn crop estimate. After this sharp re-adjustment the trade may now
face several weeks of limited new information inputs. The trade will however
continue to debate the direction of final crop estimates fearing further
reductions in production.
US corn stocks will now decline to minimally acceptable levels this year and an
additional 9 million acres will be required next year to stabilize supply and
demand. Total world grain supplies will decline nearly 2.2 billion bushels after
a moderately smaller US crop and one of the worst droughts in history in the
FSU.
As world buffer stocks are eroded, demand rationing is likely to occur and a
global food crisis will become more likely.
SOYBEANS
Nearby soybean opened up more than $1 on Monday morning. US yield expectations
were smaller than expected in last Friday’s USDA report and ideas of larger
demand now finds traders fearing only a moderate stock building this year and an
extreme acreage battle next year competing with corn. Without an expansion of US
soy plantings in 11-12 US stocks could decline to intolerably tight levels.
Chinese soybean imports were up 68% during September compared with last year.
October loadings are projected to be up 51% and November 64% higher. Overall the
USDA expect China to import 9% more soybeans this year.
Weekly US soybean exports are strong at 37.9 million bushels with last week
revised up to 26 million and compared to 25.5 million last year.
WHEAT
Wheat markets were boosted higher by the corn market rally following Friday’s
USDA report. However since then values then traded independently lower. The
wheat market does not appear to be suffering the same supply tightness as the
corn and soybean markets. While world coarse grain and oilseeds S&D situations
tighten dramatically in 11-12, world wheat supplies could stabilize with
beneficial weather.
US winter wheat planting is now 70% complete, with indications SRW plantings
may be as much as 3 million acres higher than last year.
Some better moisture for the Former Soviet Union and continued good weather in
Western Canada is weighing on wheat markets.
Contract prices for October 13th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $211.59 per tonne ($5.76/bu.), SRW at $194.97 per tonne ($5.31/bu.), HRW
at $218.98 per tonne ($5.96/bu.), and HRS at $236.81 per tonne ($6.44/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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