[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hobam Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Nov 4 15:58:30 EDT 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, November 4
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0024 down 0.0068
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC10 HI 5.95 3/4 DEC11 HI 5.58
LOW 5.80 1/2 LOW 5.48
CLOSE5.90 Up 9 CLOSE 5.54 1/2 Up 5
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAR11
CK Low -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
CK High -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
CK Avg -0.85 -0.88 5.05 198.81 -0.85 -0.90 4.70 184.83
Essex Cty -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Mdsx Low -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Mdsx High -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Mdsx Avg -0.85 -0.88 5.05 198.81 -0.85 -0.90 4.70 184.83
Hensall -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Bruce -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Putnam -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Princeton -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Durham -1.20 4.70 185.03 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Norfolk -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Trenton -0.95 4.95 194.87 -0.90 4.65 182.87
Winchester -0.80 5.10 200.78 -0.75 4.80 188.77
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Kent FOB -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Lamb FOB -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Mdsx FOB -0.85 -0.85 -0.80 -0.75 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
FOB SW Que -0.90 5.00 196.84 -0.50 5.05 198.61
Track -0.40 5.50 216.53N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.65 4.90 192.71
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.50 5.05 198.61
Aylmer-Eth N/A -0.95 -0.85 -0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.60 -0.60 -0.50 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.65N/A N/A N/A 5.25 206.68N/A
London-Cas N/A -0.80 -0.75 -0.75 -0.55 5.00 196.64
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A -0.75 -0.55 -0.50 -0.50 5.05 198.61
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.35 5.20 204.52
W O Feed -0.52 -0.53 5.38 211.64
US Rep 0.00 0.00 5.90 232.27
Toledo El. -0.26 5.64 221.99 -0.47 5.07 199.63
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.85 4.70 184.83
Pt. Stanley -0.88 5.02 197.63 -1.04 4.51 177.35
Hamilton -0.85 5.05 198.81 -0.53 5.02197 3/7
MID SD CRN -0.85 5.05
HI SD CRN -0.85 5.05
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0024 down 0.0068
Chicago soybeans closed higher.
JAN11 HI 12.79 NOV11 HI 12.21 1/2
LOW 12.38 1/2 LOW 11.86
CLOSE12.74 3/4 Up 37 1/4 CLOSE 12.15 1/2 Up 29
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR11
CK Low -1.50 11.25 413.27-1.23 10.93 401.43
CK High -1.41 11.34 416.58-1.03 11.13 408.77
CK Average -1.47 -1.5311.28 414.45-1.11-1.2211.04 405.76
Essex Cty -1.33 11.42 419.52-1.14 11.02 404.73
Mdsx Low -1.50 11.25 413.27-1.27 10.89 399.96
Mdsx High -1.44 11.31 415.48-1.03 11.13 408.77
Mdsx Average -1.47 -1.5311.28 414.38-1.13-1.2411.02 404.98
Hensall -1.48 11.27 414.19-1.08 11.08 407.12
Bruce -1.45 11.30 415.11-1.10 11.06 406.20
Putnam -1.45 11.30 415.11-1.05 11.11 408.04
Princeton -1.33 11.42 419.52-1.19 10.97 402.89
Durham -1.47 11.28 414.38-1.22 10.94 401.79
Norfolk -1.42 11.33 416.21-1.22 10.94 401.79
Trenton -1.45 11.30 415.11-1.20 10.96 402.53
Winchester -1.31 11.44 420.26-1.06 11.10 407.67
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -1.30 11.45 420.62-1.00 11.16 409.88
Kent FOB -1.47 11.28 414.38-1.22 10.94 401.79
Lambton FOB -1.47 11.28 414.38-1.22 10.94 401.79
Middlesex FOB-1.30-1.00-0.95 N/A 11.45 420.62-1.20 10.96 402.53
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.95-0.65-0.58-0.52 11.80 433.48-0.78 11.38 417.96
Windsor -0.89-0.54-0.49-0.48 11.86 435.69-0.81 11.35 416.86
Winchester -1.15 11.60 426.14-0.90 11.26 413.55
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.90-0.70 N/A N/A 11.85 435.32-0.70 11.46 420.90
Pt. Stanley -1.35 11.40 418.79-1.20 10.96 402.53
Sarnia -0.95 11.80 433.48-0.63 11.53 423.47
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.32 12.43 456.63-0.13 12.03 441.84
Toledo El. -0.37 12.38 454.73-0.53 11.62 426.97
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0024 down 0.0068
Chicago wheat closed higher.
DEC10 HI 7.19 1/2 JUL11 HI 7.91
LOW 6.92 3/4 LOW 7.67
CLOSE 7.13 3/4 Up 23 1/2 CLOSE 7.87 Up 22 1/4
Minni wheat closed higher.
DEC10 HI 7.87 SEP11 HI 8.18
LOW 7.63 1/4 LOW 7.95 3/4
CLOSE 7.84 3/4 Up 22 1/2 CLOSE 8.14 1/4 Up 21 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.92 -0.77 -1.07 -0.92
CAD $/bu 6.22 6.37 6.06 6.93
CAD $/tonne 228.38 233.92 222.84 254.59
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.95 -1.70 N/A N/A -1.10 -1.90 N/A
London -0.99 -0.89 -1.64 N/A -1.29 -1.14 -2.09 N/A
Hensall -0.80 N/A -1.55 N/A -1.15 N/A -1.90 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -2.00 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.82 N/A N/A N/A -1.04
Essex N/A N/A -1.78 N/A N/A N/A -2.08 N/A
Norwich -0.80 N/A -1.55 N/A -1.15 N/A -1.90 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.80 N/A -1.55 N/A -1.15 N/A -1.90 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.75 -1.58 N/A N/A -1.05 -2.07 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.75 -1.58 N/A N/A -1.05 -2.07 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.74 -1.35 -0.55 N/A -1.02 -1.98 -0.79
Mitchell -0.80 -0.70 -1.55 N/A -1.15 -1.00 -1.90 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.15 N/A N/A N/A -1.31
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.04 -0.68 -1.61 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.65 N/A N/A N/A -1.65 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -1.10 N/A N/A N/A -2.10 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.63 -0.57 N/A 0.32 -0.23 -0.03 N/A
Toledo El. 6.49US 6.52CA 6.84US 6.90CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.24 -0.94 -1.65 -1.04
CAD $/bu 6.63 6.93 6.22 7.10
CAD $/tonne 243.52 254.64 228.70 261.04
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 250.00 - 255.00
Bayport Oats 305.00
Bayport Barley 235.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 405.88 - 408.08
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 155.00 - 190.00
Wednesday November 3, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
5.8100
↑
3 3/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
12.3700
↑
13 1/4
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
7.2675
↑
36 1/2
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
7.5850
↓
3 3/4
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
7.5975
↑
13 1/3
cents
Canadian $
Dec
0.9932
↑
232
points
CORN
Corn values finished slightly higher after a volatile week partly due to the
rally in wheat and cotton prices.
Since 2006 cotton plantings have reduced by 3.38 million acres in the US, with
production mostly being handed over to corn. If the strong rally in cotton
prices continues, almost all these acres could be returned to cotton production
in 2011.
Another factor which may restrict corn plantings is fertilizer prices,
particularly ammonia which has almost doubled in price in the last 12 months. If
prices continue to rise, corn may lose acres to lower input crops such as
soybeans and wheat.
The US Federal Reserve announced plans for more quantitative easing (money
printing) in 2011. The $600 billion dollar announcement is on top off the
$250-300 billion program already planned for 2011. The additional supply of US
dollars will devalue the currency against the Canadian dollar.
SOYBEANS
Nearby soybean futures finished 13.5 cents higher for the week after a choppy
week of trading.
The USDA is expected to increase their soybean demand forecast in the November
9 supply/demand update. This should offset any increase in the production
estimate. Early season soybean exports from the US are up 39% from the high
amounts exported at this time last year.
This week the Chinese Government announced plans to continue purchasing
domestic soybeans to bolster local prices and build the country’s stockpile.
The Chinese Government is paying Chinese producers a fixed price equivalent to
US$15.26 dollars per bushel (US$570 per tonne).
Ontario growers should have by now received their RMP renewal notices ahead of
the November 25 deadline. Pre-harvest prices will be released by Agricorp on
Monday 8th November.
WHEAT
Wheat had a very mixed week, with disappointing US crop ratings producing a
solid 4 day rally before a sharp sell-off due to profit taking. The US crop was
rated 46% good/excellent, down 1% from last week and compared to 64% last year.
This is now the worst rated US winter wheat crop since 2001.
Ontario wheat basis levels have improved considerably in the past week as
export demand strengthens.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) this week responded to
criticism that the Variable Storage Rate (VSR) system implemented this year has
failed to make futures and cash prices converge at contract expiry. Cash prices
in Kansas City recently traded as much as $1.95/bushel below the futures price
at expiry. The CFTC said it is determined to solve the convergence issues in the
wheat futures market, but ruled out placing limits on speculators.
On Wednesday a trader’s mistake caused the Minneapolis wheat exchange to
briefly jump 30 cents higher before returning to normal less than a minute
later, by which time several hundred contracts had changed hands.
Contract prices for November 3rd, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $235.99 per tonne ($6.42/bu.), SRW at $221.12 per tonne ($6.02/bu.), HRW
at $247.15 per tonne ($6.73/bu.), and HRS at $253.93 per tonne ($6.91/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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