[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Dec 22 16:10:50 EST 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, December 22
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0148 down 0.0027
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.
MAR11 HI 6.09 3/4 DEC11 HI 5.51 1/2
LOW 6.00 LOW 5.43 1/4
CLOSE6.09 Up 6 3/4 CLOSE 5.50 Up 4 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAY11
CK Low -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
CK High -0.70 5.39 212.19 -0.70 4.80 188.97
CK Avg -0.74 -0.83 5.36 210.82 -0.70 -0.80 4.80 188.97
Essex Cty -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Mdsx Low -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Mdsx High -0.70 5.39 212.19 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Mdsx Avg -0.73 -0.83 5.36 210.88 -0.70 -0.80 4.80 188.97
Hensall -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Bruce -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Putnam -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Princeton -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Durham -0.85 5.24 206.29 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Norfolk -0.71 5.38 211.80 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Trenton -0.80 5.29 208.26 -0.80 4.70 185.03
Winchester -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Kent FOB -0.71 5.38 211.80 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Lamb FOB -0.71 5.38 211.80 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Mdsx FOB -0.75 -0.70 -0.65 -0.65 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
FOB SW Que -0.50 5.59 220.07 -0.50 5.00 196.84
Track -0.33 5.77 226.96N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.60 4.90 192.90
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.50 5.00 196.84
Aylmer-Eth N/A -0.60 -0.60 -0.65 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.70 -0.45 -0.50 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.55N/A N/A N/A 5.54 218.10N/A
London-Cas N/A -0.65 -0.65 -0.65 -0.45 5.05 198.81
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.30 -0.35 5.15 202.75
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.35 5.15 202.75
W O Feed -0.34 -0.36 5.75 226.37
US Rep 0.20 0.18 6.29 247.63
Toledo El. -0.12 5.97 234.95 -0.48 5.02 197.69
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.75 5.34 210.23 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Pt. Stanley -0.70 5.39 212.19 -0.70 4.80 188.97
Hamilton -0.30 5.79 227.94 -0.50 5.00196 5/6
MID SD CRN -0.72 1/2 5.36 1/2
HI SD CRN -0.70 5.39
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0148 down 0.0027
Chicago soybeans closed narrowly mixed.
JAN11 HI 13.33 NOV11 HI 12.54 1/2
LOW 13.17 1/2 LOW 12.43
CLOSE13.28 3/4 Up 2 1/2 CLOSE 12.48 1/2 Down 1 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR11
CK Low -0.68 12.61 463.25-0.86 11.63 427.15
CK High -0.60 12.69 466.19-0.80 11.69 429.35
CK Average -0.63 -0.8412.66 465.01-0.83-1.0611.65 428.17
Essex Cty -0.55 12.74 468.02-0.79 11.70 429.72
Mdsx Low -0.66 12.63 463.98-0.85 11.64 427.51
Mdsx High -0.58 12.71 466.92-0.80 11.69 429.35
Mdsx Average -0.61 -0.8212.67 465.70-0.83-1.0611.65 428.13
Hensall -0.60 12.69 466.19-0.83 11.66 428.43
Bruce -0.60 12.69 466.19-0.80 11.69 429.35
Putnam -0.60 12.69 466.19-0.80 11.69 429.35
Princeton -0.53 12.76 468.76-0.87 11.62 426.78
Durham -0.68 12.61 463.25-0.87 11.62 426.78
Norfolk -0.55 12.74 468.02-0.67 11.82 434.13
Trenton -0.55 12.74 468.02-0.85 11.64 427.51
Winchester -0.55 12.74 468.02-0.85 11.64 427.51
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.50 12.79 469.86-0.80 11.69 429.35
Kent FOB -0.60 12.69 466.19-0.73 11.76 431.92
Lambton FOB -0.60 12.69 466.19-0.73 11.76 431.92
Middlesex FOB-0.49-0.39-0.39-0.34 12.80 470.23-0.68 11.81 433.76
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.20-0.14-0.14-0.09 13.09 480.88-0.40 12.09 444.05
Windsor -0.19-0.19-0.30-0.27 13.10 481.25-0.52 11.97 439.64
Winchester -0.45 12.84 471.70-0.70 11.79 433.02
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.25 N/A N/A N/A 13.04 479.05-0.40 12.09 444.05
Pt. Stanley -0.70 12.59 462.51-0.85 11.64 427.51
Sarnia -0.22 13.07 480.15-0.48 12.01 441.11
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 0.20 13.49 495.580.15 12.64 464.26
Toledo El. -0.18 13.10 481.51-0.54 11.95 438.92
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0148 down 0.0027
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
MAR11 HI 7.85 1/4 JUL11 HI 8.23 1/2
LOW 7.56 LOW 7.97 1/2
CLOSE 7.83 1/2 Up 18 1/2 CLOSE 8.22 1/2 Up 16 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
MAR11 HI 8.75 SEP11 HI 8.72 1/4
LOW 8.51 LOW 8.54
CLOSE 8.69 3/4 Up 12 CLOSE 8.71 1/4 Up 12 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.64 -0.08 -0.49 -0.68
CAD $/bu 7.20 7.76 7.35 8.02
CAD $/tonne 264.43 284.96 270.03 294.75
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.70 -1.00 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.80 N/A
London -0.78 -0.68 -0.98 N/A -0.95 -0.95 -1.82 N/A
Hensall -0.70 N/A -0.90 N/A -0.90 N/A -1.75 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.83 N/A N/A N/A -1.01
Essex N/A N/A -0.94 N/A N/A N/A -1.86 N/A
Norwich -0.70 N/A -0.90 N/A -0.90 N/A -1.80 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.70 N/A -0.90 N/A -0.90 N/A -1.80 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.70 -0.86 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.82 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.70 -0.86 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.82 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.37 -0.88 -0.52 N/A -0.87 -1.69 -0.72
Mitchell -0.70 -0.65 -0.90 N/A -0.90 -0.90 -1.80 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.72 N/A N/A N/A -1.34
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia -0.53 -0.12 -0.53 N/A -0.81 -0.50 -1.48 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.25 N/A N/A N/A -1.21 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -0.75 N/A N/A N/A -1.66 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.63 -0.38 N/A 0.40 0.15 -0.57 N/A
Toledo El. 7.41US 7.52CA 7.40US 7.53CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.97 -0.62 -1.43 -0.91
CAD $/bu 7.25 7.61 6.79 7.80
CAD $/tonne 266.49 279.58 249.66 286.59
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 275.00
Bayport Oats 320.00
Bayport Barley 260.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 399.82 - 407.53
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 165.00 - 200.00
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Mar.
6.0900
↑
24 3/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan.
13.2875
↑
32 1/4
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar.
7.8350
↑
18 3/4
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar.
8.6975
↑
27
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar.
8.4450
↑
29 1/2
cents
Canadian $
Mar.
0.9845
↓
97
points
CORN
Corn finished the week higher despite index funds starting to reduce their
holdings of corn futures, in order to rebalance their positions before 2011
begins. However in early January funds are expected to again pour new capital
into the market, with the view that longer term market fundamentals support
higher prices. At present funds already hold a record long position of 453,000
contracts.
The trade remains concerned over hot dry weather in Argentina and is beginning
to lower their corn production estimates from this region.
The USDA is widely expected to increase corn use for ethanol estimates in the
upcoming supply and demand report with weekly and monthly data suggesting a much
stronger grind than the 4.8 billion tonnes usage projected by USDA currently.
Meanwhile ethanol and gasoline prices continue to rally sharply higher.
The trade is looking ahead to the key USDA final production and stocks report
on January 12th and the USDA conference in February to determine how much corn
will be planted in 2011.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded higher on ideas of a tightening old crop and new crop US supply
and demand situation.
The trade remains concerned over hot and generally dry conditions in Argentina,
with crop estimates being downgraded. Smaller shipments from both Argentina and
potentially Brazil, could push additional demand back to the US and further
tighten the already snug US supply demand situation. World demand could be
deferred into the US 2011-12 soybean cycle, setting the stage for incredibly
tight supplies for the coming 2 years.
China’s November soybean imports from the US were reported at near 3.8 mmt vs
2.7 mmt last year. While Argentina shipped over 900,000 tonnes this year vs zero
last year. Higher prices have reportedly sunk Chinese crush margins into
negative territory.
WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures continued to rise this week, as the trade watched erratic
price movement in the Australian wheat markets. Overall the trade has become
marginally less concerned about wheat quality issues in recent days as warm dry
weather enables harvest to ramp up in many regions.
However in the US HRW areas, hot dry conditions continue to threaten
production. Some producers are already talking of ripping up wheat to replant
with sorghum and other crops if drought persists.
Ukraine winter crop conditions have improved in recent weeks, however Russia
has indicated that it may stay out of the wheat export markets through to July
2011, unless production rebounds dramatically. Russian state lenders have
repossessed assets valuing US$2 billion from local producers and grain companies
who failed to repay their debts.
US weekly export inspections were at 23 million vs 13.7 last year. Cumulative
loadings are up 31% from a year ago with USDA forecasting annual exports up 42%.
Contract prices for December 22nd, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $264.74 per tonne ($7.21/bu.), SRW at $270.25 per tonne ($7.36/bu.), HRW
at $285.31 per tonne ($7.77/bu.), and HRS at $294.96 per tonne ($8.03/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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