[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Dec 8 16:04:45 EST 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, December 8
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0099 up 0.0006
Chicago corn closed moderately higher to higher.
MAR11 HI 5.75 DEC11 HI 5.34 1/2
LOW 5.52 1/4 LOW 5.17 1/4
CLOSE5.74 1/2 Up 12 3/4 CLOSE 5.33 3/4 Up 9 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAY11
CK Low -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.75 4.59 180.60
CK High -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.70 4.64 182.57
CK Avg -0.75 -0.83 5.00 196.64 -0.71 -0.79 4.63 182.24
Essex Cty -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.75 4.59 180.60
Mdsx Low -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.75 4.59 180.60
Mdsx High -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.70 4.64 182.57
Mdsx Avg -0.75 -0.83 5.00 196.64 -0.72 -0.79 4.62 181.91
Hensall -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.65 4.69 184.54
Bruce -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.70 4.64 182.57
Putnam -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.70 4.64 182.57
Princeton -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.75 4.59 180.60
Durham -1.00 4.75 186.80 -0.70 4.64 182.57
Norfolk -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.70 4.64 182.57
Trenton -0.85 4.90 192.71 -0.80 4.54 178.63
Winchester -0.85 4.90 192.71 -0.70 4.64 182.57
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.70 5.05 198.61 -0.70 4.64 182.57
Kent FOB -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.70 4.64 182.57
Lamb FOB -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.70 4.64 182.57
Mdsx FOB -0.75 -0.65 -0.60N/A 5.00 196.64 -0.70 4.64 182.57
FOB SW Que -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.60 4.74 186.51
Track -0.35 5.40 212.39N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.55 4.79 188.48
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.55 4.79 188.48
Aylmer-Eth -0.80 -0.75 -0.70 -0.75 4.95 194.68N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.60 -0.35 -0.35 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Cas N/A N/A -0.75 -0.90 -0.55 4.79 188.48
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A -0.70 -0.45 -0.45 4.89 192.41
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.40 4.94 194.38
W O Feed -0.36 -0.37 5.39 212.00
US Rep 0.25 0.24 6.00 236.01
Toledo El. -0.12 5.62 221.38 -0.48 4.86 191.36
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.75 5.00 196.64 -0.75 4.59 180.60
Pt. Stanley -0.80 4.95 194.68 -0.80 4.54 178.63
Hamilton -0.50 5.25 206.49 -0.50 4.84190 4/9
MID SD CRN -0.75 4.99 1/2
HI SD CRN -0.75 4.99 1/2
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0099 up 0.0006
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.
JAN11 HI 12.96 1/2 NOV11 HI 12.12 1/2
LOW 12.66 1/2 LOW 11.82 3/4
CLOSE12.96 Up 10 1/2 CLOSE 12.12 1/2 Up 12 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR11
CK Low -0.76 12.20 448.27-1.05 11.08 406.94
CK High -0.70 12.26 450.48-0.94 11.19 410.98
CK Average -0.74 -0.9212.22 449.01-0.99-1.1611.14 409.21
Essex Cty -0.66 12.30 451.95-1.07 11.06 406.20
Mdsx Low -0.75 12.21 448.64-1.00 11.13 408.77
Mdsx High -0.69 12.27 450.85-0.98 11.15 409.51
Mdsx Average -0.72 -0.9012.24 449.74-0.99-1.1611.14 409.26
Hensall -0.75 12.21 448.64-1.00 11.13 408.77
Bruce -0.75 12.21 448.64-1.00 11.13 408.77
Putnam -0.75 12.21 448.64-1.00 11.13 408.77
Princeton -0.70 12.26 450.48-1.03 11.10 407.67
Durham -0.74 12.22 449.01-1.00 11.13 408.77
Norfolk -0.66 12.30 451.95-0.97 11.16 409.88
Trenton -0.85 12.11 444.97-1.05 11.08 406.94
Winchester -0.66 12.30 451.95-0.92 11.21 411.71
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.55 12.41 455.99-0.90 11.23 412.45
Kent FOB -0.71 12.25 450.11-0.97 11.16 409.88
Lambton FOB -0.71 12.25 450.11-0.97 11.16 409.88
Middlesex FOB-0.65-0.55-0.50-0.50 12.31 452.32-0.86 11.27 413.92
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.31-0.24-0.18-0.13 12.65 464.81-0.49 11.64 427.51
Windsor -0.18-0.28-0.27-0.21 12.78 469.58-0.56 11.57 424.94
Winchester -0.60 12.36 454.15-0.75 11.38 417.96
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.20 N/A N/A N/A 12.76 468.85-0.50 11.63 427.15
Pt. Stanley -0.60 12.36 454.15-1.00 11.13 408.77
Sarnia -0.30 12.66 465.18-0.56 11.57 424.94
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.10 12.86 472.52-0.17 11.96 439.27
Toledo El. -0.18 12.78 469.49-0.54 11.59 425.76
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0099 up 0.0006
Chicago wheat closed narrowly mixed.
MAR11 HI 7.92 1/2 JUL11 HI 8.12
LOW 7.66 1/4 LOW 7.86 1/2
CLOSE 7.84 Down 3/4 CLOSE 8.06 1/4 Up 3
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR11 HI 8.67 SEP11 HI 8.61
LOW 8.42 LOW 8.41 1/4
CLOSE 8.62 3/4 Up 7 3/4 CLOSE 8.53 3/4 Up 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.75 -0.50 -0.80 -0.79
CAD $/bu 7.09 7.34 7.04 7.83
CAD $/tonne 260.41 269.72 258.54 287.88
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.50 -1.05 N/A N/A -0.90 -1.75 N/A
London -0.83 -0.78 -1.03 N/A -1.03 -0.98 -1.89 N/A
Hensall -0.80 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.00 N/A -1.80 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.75 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.93 N/A N/A N/A -1.11
Essex N/A N/A -1.06 N/A N/A N/A -1.88 N/A
Norwich -0.80 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.00 N/A -1.90 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.80 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.00 N/A -1.90 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.72 -1.00 N/A N/A -1.02 -1.90 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.72 -1.00 N/A N/A -1.02 -1.90 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.47 -0.97 -0.62 N/A -0.97 -1.77 -0.82
Mitchell -0.80 -0.65 -1.05 N/A -1.00 -0.90 -1.90 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.76 N/A N/A N/A -1.41
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.90 -0.60 -0.96 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.35 N/A N/A N/A -1.30 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -0.90 N/A N/A N/A -1.75 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.62 -0.40 N/A 0.37 0.12 -0.59 N/A
Toledo El. 7.31US 7.41CA 7.53US 7.64CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.00 -0.64 -1.51 -0.94
CAD $/bu 7.06 7.42 6.56 7.60
CAD $/tonne 259.51 272.56 240.88 279.08
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 260.00 - 275.00
Bayport Oats 305.00
Bayport Barley 240.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 395.85 - 402.46
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 165.00 - 200.00
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Mar.
5.7450
↑
8 1/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan.
13.0500
↑
22
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar.
7.8400
↑
44
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar.
8.6275
↑
57 1/4
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar.
8.3750
↑
92
cents
Canadian $
Mar.
0.9932
↑
110
points
CORN
Corn markets had a mixed week as the US congress and white house made an
informal deal to extend ethanol subsidies. However the size of the subsidy and
the length of the extension remain unknown. Many expect the current 45c/gallon
subsidy to be lowered to 36c/gallon.
The prospect of much of the Australian wheat crop being downgraded to feed is
weighing on the feed market. A boost in Australian feed wheat exports will curb
North American corn exports.
With funds maintaining a large long position (427,000 contracts) new buying
interest is being tempered. The trade is also expecting funds to sell out of
corn in early January to rebalance their positions.
The trade is expecting Fridays USDA update to lower US corn carryout from 827
mmt to around 803 mmt.
The latest Stats Canada report shows Ontario produced 7.7 million metric tonnes
of grain corn, up 21.5 per cent from 6.4 million tonnes in 2009. Harvested acres
rose 5.7 per cent from 1.8 million acres in 2009 to 1.9 million acres and at 164
bushels per acre yields reached a record high.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans had a choppy week as the market tried to process potential changes to
US biodiesel subsidies. A deal appears to have been reached to extend the
$1/gallon subsidies which expired in 2009, to cover 2010 and 2011. The decision
is expected to stimulate US biodiesel production which is currently running at
just 8% of capacity and well below the mandated levels.
The trade is watching generally beneficial rains in parts of Brazil however
Argentina remains dry. Analysts have been lowering South American production
estimates and many believe China is responding to the South American production
threat by building up their soybean inventory levels.
The trade expects the USDA to lower its old crop US soybean carryout on Friday
to 167 mmt from the 185 mmt November estimate.
For a second year in a row, a record area of soybeans were harvested in
Ontario. Harvested area went up 1.8 per cent to more than 2.4 million acres.
Yield increased 14.4 per cent to 46 bushels per acre reaching the same record
high as in 2006. As a result, production also hit a record three million tonnes,
up 16.4 per cent from 2009.
WHEAT
The recent wheat price surge continued this week before tapering off as the
trade debates a wide range of Australian crop damage scenarios. Rains continue
to affect both quality and quantity of wheat there however the latest production
estimate was at 26.8 mmt, well above the USDA’s November forecast of 24 mmt.
A tighter world supply situation is prompting analysts to increase US export
forecast despite logistical challenges, including the risk of cold weather
reducing barge traffic. Total US carryout is expected to drop towards 760 mmt vs
the 848 mmt forecast from USDA in November.
Russia may extend its grain export ban if weather remains unfavorable.
Meanwhile better rains in the Middle East have improved production prospects.
Stats Canada numbers show Ontario winter wheat production declining for a
second year in a row, down 4.7 per cent from 2009 levels to 1.8 million tonnes.
Harvested area also declined, dropping 12.4 per cent to 815,000 acres. Yield
however, rose 6.4 bushels per acre or 8.8 per cent to 79.5 bushels per acre.
Contract prices for December 8th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $260.15 per tonne ($7.08/bu.), SRW at $258.31 per tonne ($7.03/bu.), HRW
at $269.33 per tonne ($7.33/bu.), and HRS at $287.61 per tonne ($7.83/bu.).
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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