Wednesday, February 18, 2014
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Mar
3.84
?
         3
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Mar
9.96
?
18
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar
5.28
?
3
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar
5.82
?
8
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar
5.48
?
10
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
Mar
.8005
?
135
points



CORN:  
While corn remains the biggest domestic crop, prices have tumbled so much after two years of record harvests that the grain prices are now less than it costs some farmers to produce. For the first time since the 1970s, corn planting will decline for a third straight season, while soybean acreage expands to the most ever, a Bloomberg survey of analysts showed.
On the charts:  The $3.80 - $3.90 level is currently the trading range on the March contract.  Any movement outside of that range could dictate the direction for the next month until the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report is released in March. The long term indicators are looking bearish while the intermediate and daily charts are still neutral. 
SOYBEANS:
The prospect of increased soybean planting in the U.S., the world’s biggest producer and exporter, comes as farmers in South America begin harvesting their biggest crops ever, which will add more pressure to the already bulging carry-outs in the world soybean supplies.
On the charts:  The week of February 18th saw soybeans recapture 50% of the January through February losses with a range of $10.60 high and $9.55 low, settling on February 18 at $9.95 per bushel on the March contract. Price movement could be further restricted until the much anticipated USDA report on March 31. Indicators are neutral on the day chart but still remain bearish on both the mid and long term charts. 




WHEAT:

Wheat futures gave back early gains after reaching $5.47 on the March contract after Egypt's Gasc grain authority ditched proposals for buying U.S. wheat - citing prices more than 25% higher than it has been paying for European supplies.
On the charts:  The March wheat contract finally broke through our $5.35 overhead resistance level as of this writing.  We could now be setting up for a rally into the spring, providing we can hold the $5.20 short term support on the lead month chart.  Upside resistance is now pegged at the $5.50 - $5.60 level. Short term signals are neutral but this downtrend still remains intact.



2014 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE February 18, 2015

SWW @ $272.88/mt ($7.43/bu), SRW @ $238.65/mt ($6.56/bu),
HRW @ $256.91/mt ($6.99/bu), HRS @ $247.33/mt ($6.73/bu).



Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for February 18 2015