Wednesday July 23, 2014
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Sep
3.62
?
16 
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Aug
12.01
?
14
cents
Wheat CBOT
Sep
5.30
?
8 
cents
Wheat Minn.
Sep
6.22
?
6
cents
Wheat Kansas
Sep
6.23
?
14
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
Sept
0.9304
?
12
points




CORN:
 
The premium of corn prices relative to other crop prices began to fade during the 2013-14 marketing year. Current estimates or forecasts for the 2013-14 marketing year reflect a soybean/corn price ratio of 2.92, a wheat/corn price ratio of 1.54, and a soybean meal/corn price ratio of 3.20. The soybean/corn price ratio will be higher than in the 2005-06 marketing year. Increasing livestock prices and declining feed prices have restored livestock/feed price ratios to the highest levels in at least four years.
The price of corn for the 2014-15 marketing year has declined by about $1.50 since early May and the price of corn relative to most other agricultural commodity prices has declined sharply.  
First line of support at the $4.25 level on the weekly chart failed after the July long weekend opening the door for a test of the next support level of $3.50 followed by the $3.00 level basis the lead month. The trend is still negative and overhead resistance is now the old $4.25 support level. 

SOYBEANS:

The IP soybean crop in Northern Ontario continues to do well, says the latest update from Thompsons. The crop has very little stress, with disease and insect pressure low in all fields. Rhizoctonia Root Rot, Septoria Brown Spot are being seen at trace levels. Relatively no insect feeding was seen. Magnesium Deficiency and Ozone Injury were noted in a couple of fields at trace levels as well. The majority of weeds are being controlled, with Volunteer Corn being the most common escape.
   The IP crop in the South is also coming along nicely. Fields are fairly clean of weeds, insects, and diseases. Any issues that are being seen in fields are of minimal concern.

WHEAT:

The Wheat Quality Council's Hard Red Spring Wheat tour's first day yield in South Dakota averaged 48.1 bushels per acre, higher than last year's 43.5 bpa. That estimate includes both spring and winter wheat varieties. The average for spring wheat yield from 156 fields was calculated at 48.3 bpa, compared to 43.3 bpa from last year. Scouts measured six winter wheat fields with an average yield of 42.9.
"This is the biggest day one average we've seen over the last five years," said Ben Handcock, executive director of the Wheat Quality Council, which hosts the tour. 
Scouts reported spring wheat is about a month to six weeks away from harvest, with crops in the western parts of the state closer to maturity than wheat in the eastern part of the state. Yields also generally improved as scouts drove toward Bismarck, N.D. 
Wheat prices continue to deteriorate on Chicago with the September contract down $2.25 per bushel since its May 6 high of $7.51.  A total of 40 of the past 53 trading days have seen lower closes.

Short term support is seen around $5.15 on Sept Wheat with the next major support between $4.80 and $5.00 on the lead month contract. 


2014 harvest prices as of the close of July 23 are as follows:
SWW at $199.42/mt ($5.43/bu), SRW at $185.60/mt ($5.05/bu), HRW at $203.37/mt ($5.53/bu), HRS at $215.41/mt ($5.86/bu).


       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for July 23 2014 
       By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario