Wednesday January 29, 2014



Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Corn CBOT
March
4.27 ½   
?
1 ¼
cents
Soybeans CBOT
March
12.69 ¼  
?
10 ¼
cents
Wheat CBOT
March
5.51 ½ 
?
10
cents
Wheat Minn.
March
5.98
?
18 ¾ 
cents
Wheat Kansas
March
6.08 ¾ 
?
12 ½ 
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
March
0.8945
?
66
points

CORN:
US corn exports remain strong, continuing above the pace required to meet this year's USDA’s export estimate of 1.45 billion bushels. Inspections recently were reported to be 28.7 million bushels, well above trade estimates.

Ethanol production in the US averaged 900,000 barrels per day for the week ending January 24, down slightly from the previous week. Total ethanol production for the week was 6.300 million bushels. Stocks tallied in at 16.932 million barrels, down slightly from the previous week.

SOYBEANS:
Anticipation of a large South American soybean crop continues to pressure the market. It has been rumoured that China will eventually cancel contracts to buy US soybeans and instead buy less expensive Brazilian beans. The expectation that demand will shift to South America has pulled US prices down this past week.
 
According to Oil World, global oilseed production will be larger than previous estimates. This is partially due to improving prospects for Brazilian soybeans. They peg Brazil’s crop at 89.5 million tonnes while reducing Argentina’s to 54 million tonnes, on account of dry weather. It should be noted that Brazil has begun its soybean harvest and although it is early, initial indications are that yields are reported as good.

WHEAT:
Egypt once again is in the news with its recent GASC tender. Egypt bought 180,000 tonnes of Russian origin wheat and 60,000 tonnes of US origin wheat.  January purchases totalled 1.13m tonnes. Egypt had tightened its moisture requirement from 13.5 percent to 13.0 percent which effectively eliminated France from the tender.
 
US wheat areas remain cold and dry. If this current weather pattern remains, some are considering a lower wheat production level for next harvest.  As the crop remains dormant, we will not know the extent of damage until we get closer to spring. Even if the dryness persists, it is also spring moisture that is critical in determining winter wheat potential. 

2013 contract prices for January 29, at the market close, are as follows:
SWW at $207.77 per tonne ($5.65/bu.), SRW at $201.62 per tonne ($5.49 /bu.), HRW at $218.03 per tonne ($5.93 /bu.), and HRS at $206.33 per tonne ($5.62 /bu.)








       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for January 29, 2014 
       By Todd Austin, Grain Farmers of Ontario