Wednesday January 15, 2014



Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Corn CBOT
March
4.25 ¾ 
?
8 ¾ 
cents
Soybeans CBOT
March
13.18
?
48 ¾ 
cents
Wheat CBOT
March
5.67 ¾ 
?
21
cents
Wheat Minn.
March
6.14
?
13
cents
Wheat Kansas
March
6.20 ½ 
?
16 ½ 
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
March
0.91160
?
122
points

CORN:
The January 10 USDA report recalculated the US corn yield to be 158.8 bushels per acre, down from December’s report of 160.4 bushels per acre. The trade had been anticipating a higher average yield as evident from falling futures. Ending stocks were recalculated to be 1.63 billion bushels, which is still a very comfortable carryout. The futures market reacted with a rally within seconds of the report being issued.
 
New crop expectations are lower corn acreage than in 2013, as the market waits for new crop acreage estimates over the next couple of months. The USDA’s March report will include prospective plantings for the 2014 crop year.

SOYBEANS:
The USDA continues to show tight carryout soybean stocks in the US. Markets continue to indicate an immediate need for soybeans, as seen in the inverse spreads between nearby futures months and further out futures months. This has kept the soybean futures stronger relative to falling corn values.
 
Chinese demand is supporting the higher bean price as China continues to buy from the US. However, the trade is waiting for the eventual slowdown of US purchases while shifting to cheaper South American supplies.

WHEAT:
The US wheat supply remains comfortable again this year. However, carry out has been slowly decreasing year after year, as acreage shifts from wheat to either corn or soybeans. Globally, wheat stocks and carryout are up, albeit slightly, from last year.
 
The US has sold wheat to Egypt for February movement.  News of this sparked futures higher. The Egyptian wheat harvest will begin around March and there may not be as much Egyptian purchasing from now until after their harvest.

2013 contract prices for January 15, at the market close, are as follows:
SWW at $210.65 per tonne ($5.73/bu.), SRW at $204.61 per tonne ($5.57/bu.), HRW at $220.73 per tonne ($6.01/bu.), and HRS at $209.14 per tonne ($5.69/bu.)








       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for January 15, 2014 
       By Todd Austin, Grain Farmers of Ontario