[Farmmarketnews] Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

[Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report]

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for January 22, 2020
By Todd Austin, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Wednesday, January 22, 2020
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.88¾ ↑ 1¼ cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.13¾ ↓ 15 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.77¾ ↑ 4½ cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.55½ ↓ ¾ cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.92½ ↓ 4 cents
Oats CBOT Mar 3.13¼ ↑ 7½ cents

Canadian $ Mar 0.7607 ↓ 58 points

CORN:
There were rumours of Chinese purchase of U.S. corn last week which gave the market a sizeable one-day gain. Since then the corn futures market has eased slightly.  Although the trade was anticipating between 450 – 800,000 tonnes, U.S. export inspections totalled approximately 386,000 tonnes. This estimate is down from the past week and substantially lower for the same time last year.   Export shipments were below the necessary pace required to reach the USDA export estimates for the 2019-2020 marketing year.

SOYBEANS:
U.S. soybean exports tallied in at the upper end of trade estimates, at 1.2 million tonnes. The soy market has tempered this news with projections of a large South American soybean harvest.  The trade is watching to see if China buys U.S soybeans or if they continue to buy from South America.  The U.S. China Phase 1 trade deal indicates that China will buy U.S. farm goods based on ‘market conditions’, which has added to this uncertainty.

WHEAT:
Hard red wheat (HRW) has been a major share of all U.S. wheat exports, while soft red (SRW) wheat has held a much smaller share of exports. With the Black Sea region expanding its exports, the global share of U.S. exports has been significantly reduced. This has led to an increase in U.S. wheat inventory, even at times where planted acreage has been decreasing. HRW stocks have risen while SRW's have dropped and are seen as having a tighter supply.

The aforementioned factors have significantly impacted the Kansas City Wheat Futures where HRW is traded, trading at a discount to the Chicago wheat futures. Traditionally Kansas City has traded at a premium to Chicago.


2019 cash prices for January 22, 2020, at the market close, are as follows:

SWW at $293.56/mt ($7.99/bu), HRW at $300.81/mt ($8.19/bu),
HRS at $253.83/mt ($6.91/bu), and SRW at $288.73/mt ($7.86/bu).

We currently offer 2020 and 2021 harvest prices as well, please call
1-800-265-0550 for more information.

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Blair Andrews

Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News

University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus



Email:fmnc at uoguelph.ca

Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577

Fax. 519-674-1530

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Grain Farmers of Ontario








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