[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jun 27 15:33:54 EDT 2019


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, June 27
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3079 down 0.0017
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.

      SEP19   HI 4.51  1/2                    DEC19    HI 4.56  3/4
             LOW 4.45  1/4                            LOW 4.50  1/4
            CLOSE4.45  3/4  Down 3 3/4              CLOSE 4.51   Down 3 1/2

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +SEP19+SEP19+DEC19
CK Low       1.40                        5.86 230.60  1.25         5.76 226.76
CK High      1.45                        5.91 232.57  1.25         5.76 226.76
CK Avg       1.43                   0.04 5.88 231.58  1.25 -0.11   5.76 226.76
Essex Cty    1.45                        5.91 232.57  1.25         5.76 226.76
Mdsx Low     1.40                        5.86 230.60  1.25         5.76 226.76
Mdsx High    1.45                        5.91 232.57  1.25         5.76 226.76
Mdsx Avg     1.43                   0.04 5.88 231.58  1.25 -0.11   5.76 226.76
Hensall      1.48                        5.93 233.55  1.28         5.79 227.75
Bruce        1.40                        5.86 230.60  1.25         5.76 226.76
Putnam       1.45                        5.91 232.57  1.25         5.76 226.76
Burford      1.40                        5.86 230.60  1.25         5.76 226.76
Port Perry   1.35                        5.81 228.63  1.20         5.71 224.79
Norfolk      1.45                        5.91 232.57  1.25         5.76 226.76
Palmerston   1.34                        5.80 228.24  1.25         5.76 226.76
Varna        1.45                        5.91 232.57  1.25         5.76 226.76
Trenton      1.29                        5.75 226.27  1.25         5.76 226.76
Winchester  N/A                                       1.16         5.67 223.22
North Gower  1.20                        5.66 222.73  1.20         5.71 224.79
Huron FOB    1.75                        6.21 244.38  1.25         5.76 226.76
Kent FOB     1.70                        6.16 242.41  1.25         5.76 226.76
Lamb FOB     1.75                        6.21 244.38  1.35         5.86 230.70
Mdsx FOB     1.65  1.65N/A   N/A         6.11 240.44  1.30         5.81 228.73
FOB SW Que   2.27                        6.73 264.85  1.28         5.79 227.94
Track        1.85                        6.31 248.32N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A     2.32                   1.73         6.24 245.66
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A     1.86                 N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      N/A
Sarn-Eth    N/A    1.70  1.70N/A                    N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     2.05  2.10                 N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.50         6.01 236.60
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.80  1.80                   1.50         6.01 236.60
W O Feed     2.05                        6.51 256.19

US Rep       2.15                        6.61 260.13
Toledo El.   0.34                        4.80 188.87  0.07         4.58 180.13

TRANSFER
Port ColbornN/A                                       1.40         5.91232 2/3

MID SD CRN                                            1.25         5.76
HI SD CRN                                             1.25         5.76
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.3079 down 0.0017
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.

       AUG19   HI 9.04                NOV19    HI 9.22  3/4
              LOW 8.89  1/2                   LOW 9.07  3/4
             CLOSE8.93  3/4  Down 6         CLOSE 9.12  1/4  Down 6

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +AUG1+AUG1+NOV19
CK Low       2.10                     11.04 405.562.00      11.12 408.68
CK High      2.19                     11.13 408.872.10      11.22 412.36
CK Average   2.15                -0.4611.09 407.522.02 -0.6011.15 409.54
Essex Cty    2.15                     11.09 407.402.00      11.12 408.68
Mdsx Low     2.13                     11.07 406.661.99      11.11 408.31
Mdsx High    2.15                     11.09 407.402.00      11.12 408.68
Mdsx Average 2.14                -0.4711.08 407.032.00 -0.6211.12 408.50
Hensall      2.18                     11.11 408.312.00      11.12 408.68
Bruce        2.15                     11.09 407.402.00      11.12 408.68
Putnam       2.15                     11.09 407.402.00      11.12 408.68
Burford      2.18                     11.12 408.502.04      11.16 410.15
Port Perry   2.15                     11.09 407.402.01      11.13 409.05
Norfolk      2.15                     11.09 407.402.00      11.12 408.68
Palmerston   2.09                     11.03 405.192.05      11.17 410.52
Varna        2.20                     11.14 409.232.00      11.12 408.68
Trenton      2.14                     11.08 407.032.05      11.17 410.52
Winchester    N/A                                 1.95      11.07 406.84
North Gower  2.05                     10.99 403.722.00      11.12 408.68
Huron FOB    2.35                     11.29 414.742.00      11.12 408.68
Kent FOB     2.30                     11.24 412.912.00      11.12 408.68
Lambton FOB  2.40                     11.34 416.582.15      11.27 414.19
Middlesex FOB2.25 2.25 2.33  N/A      11.19 411.072.12      11.24 413.09

PROCESSORS
Windsor      2.64                     11.58 425.402.24      11.36 417.50

TRANSFER
Hamilton     2.65                     11.59 425.772.45      11.57 425.22
Prescott      N/A                                 2.45      11.57 425.22
Port Colborne N/A                                 2.43      11.55 424.48

Toledo El.   -0.26                     8.68 318.79-0.65      8.47 311.17


Exchange rate was 1.3079 down 0.0017
Chicago wheat closed mixed.
JUL19      HI     5.55  1/4             JUL19   HI      5.55  1/4
           LOW    5.41  1/4                     LOW     5.41  1/4
           CLOSE  5.47  1/2  Up 3 3/4           CLOSE   5.47  1/2  Up 3 3/4

Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
JUL19      HI     5.57  1/4             SEP19   HI      5.68  1/4
           LOW        5.47                      LOW        5.58
           CLOSE  5.51  1/2  Up 1 1/4           CLOSE   5.61  1/2  Up 2

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.69          1.75            1.55          0.78
CAD $/bu              7.16          7.23            7.03          6.30
CAD $/tonne         263.11        265.51          258.30        231.39


Direct MarkHarvest 2018                 Harvest 2019
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.55    N/A
London      1.65    2.04   1.58    N/A    1.71    2.03   1.58    N/A
Hensall     1.65    N/A    1.55    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.55    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.60    N/A
Bruce       1.60    1.95   1.55    N/A    1.60    1.95   1.55   1.20
Essex        N/A    N/A    1.55    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.55    N/A
Norwich     1.65    N/A    1.55    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.55    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     1.90   1.60    N/A
Kent Bridge 1.65    N/A    1.55    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.55    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    1.55    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.55    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    1.55    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.55    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.90   1.50   1.40    N/A     1.85   1.50   1.20
Varna       1.75    1.95   1.55    N/A    1.65    1.90   1.55    N/A
Mitchell    1.65    1.90   1.55    N/A    1.65    1.90   1.55    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   2.00    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     2.05   1.65   1.10
W O Feed                   2.21

TERMINAL
Port Colbor  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    2.04    2.37   1.91    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.88    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.88    N/A

Toledo El. 5.70US         7.45CA        5.70US          7.45CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.95          2.21            1.82          1.21
CAD $/bu              7.42          7.68            7.29          6.82
CAD $/tonne         272.72        282.33          267.91        250.61

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal            506.19
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      190.00

---


Ontario Grain Market Commentary for June 27, 2019

By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Futures Prices as of close, June 27, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 4.40 ↑ 00 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 8.88 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.47 ↑ 25 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.58 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.68 ↑ 11 cents
Oats CBOT July 2.80 ↓ 05 cents
Canadian $ Sep 0.7440 ↑ 1.15 points


Corn:
Corn broke through our target of $4.40 and as expected pulled back to the support of $4.40. Our weekly high was $4.64 on Chicago July futures. From this level, I expect consolidation and a pullback to lower prices for the short term. The key here is that the back of the bear is broken but it does not mean we have to continue higher immediately. It is difficult to determine the amount of price reduction that we will see but there is good support at the $4 level if it heads lower. The trend change is more in tune with the prices going forward and this chart suggests that we are beginning a march toward higher prices that will last for years.
Initial support is seen at $4.25 and while major support is now at the $4 range on the July futures. The primary trend is now neutral to bullish. Once this current correction is complete, I expect a re-test of the recent highs of $4.64 on the July futures and later this summer a shot towards our next target of $5 per bushel.

Soybeans:
Soybeans once again rallied to our overhead target zone of $9.25 and have failed to penetrate the trend line. This will eventually lead to a large correction if the futures are unable to clear this area. We are now approaching the first notice day on the July futures which is likely to add downward pressure on prices for the next couple of weeks. Overhead resistance is at the $9.25 to $9.50 level on the front month contract, while support is seen at the $8.50 level.
Indicators are still mixed, but the primary trend is still down.

Wheat:
Wheat is still finding trouble at our overhead resistance of $5.50 on the July futures. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report issued on June 28 could cause some sparks. If we close through our $5.50 level, there is a good chance we will see $6 very quickly. If the report is bearish, expect a prolonged pullback towards the $5 mark on the July futures. We are entering the first notice day on the July futures which could also impact prices to the upside. On the other side we have the June 28 stocks report, a long weekend coming up in the U.S., and the July 11 USDA report. Bottom line is we should see some fireworks appropriate for the July 4 celebrations.
Indicators are positive with a primary trend neutral to bullish.
The solid support is now at $4.80 on the July futures.

Harvest 2019 prices as of the close, June 27, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $272.68/MT ($7.42/bu), HRW @ $282.28/MT ($7.68/bu),
 HRS @ $250.58/MT ($6.82/bu),  SRW @ $267.88/MT ($7.29/bu).

---

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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