[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jun 19 16:01:29 EDT 2019
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, June 19
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3296 down 0.0099
Chicago corn closed lower.
JUL19 HI 4.51 3/4 DEC19 HI 4.63 1/2
LOW 4.38 1/4 LOW 4.50
CLOSE4.41 Down 8 3/4 CLOSE 4.53 1/4 Down 9 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP19+SEP19+DEC19
CK Low 1.35 5.76 226.76 1.15 5.68 223.71
CK High 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.25 5.78 227.65
CK Avg 1.39 -0.05 5.80 228.40 1.23 -0.20 5.76 226.66
Essex Cty 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.25 5.78 227.65
Mdsx Low 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.20 5.73 225.68
Mdsx High 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.25 5.78 227.65
Mdsx Avg 1.40 -0.04 5.81 228.73 1.23 -0.20 5.76 226.66
Hensall 1.43 5.84 229.71 1.25 5.78 227.65
Bruce 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.25 5.78 227.65
Putnam 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.25 5.78 227.65
Burford 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.20 5.73 225.68
Port Perry 1.35 5.76 226.76 1.15 5.68 223.71
Norfolk 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.25 5.78 227.65
Palmerston 1.45 5.86 230.70 1.30 5.83 229.62
Varna 1.40 5.81 228.73 1.25 5.78 227.65
Trenton 1.35 5.76 226.76 1.15 5.68 223.71
Winchester 1.30 5.71 224.79 1.20 5.73 225.68
North Gower 1.25 5.66 222.82 1.20 5.73 225.68
Huron FOB 1.70 6.11 240.54 1.25 5.78 227.65
Kent FOB 1.65 6.06 238.57 1.25 5.78 227.65
Lamb FOB 1.60 6.01 236.60 1.35 5.88 231.58
Mdsx FOB 1.65N/A N/A N/A 6.06 238.57 1.20 5.73 225.68
FOB SW Que 2.05 6.46 254.32 1.35 5.88 231.58
Track 1.88 6.29 247.43N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.70 1.70N/A N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.90 1.95 1.30 5.83 229.62
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 5.88 231.58
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 5.88 231.58
W O Feed 2.02 6.43 253.30
US Rep 2.15 6.56 258.26
Toledo El. 0.27 4.68 184.08 -0.07 4.47 175.82
TRANSFER
Port ColbornN/A 1.40 5.93233 5/9
MID SD CRN 1.20 5.73 1/4
HI SD CRN 1.25 5.78 1/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3296 down 0.0099
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
JUL19 HI 9.13 1/2 NOV19 HI 9.40
LOW 9.01 1/2 LOW 9.27 1/2
CLOSE9.03 1/4 Down 10 1/4 CLOSE 9.28 3/4 Down 11 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+AUG1+NOV19
CK Low 2.28 11.31 415.662.15 11.44 420.26
CK High 2.35 11.38 418.242.25 11.54 423.93
CK Average 2.32 -0.5011.35 417.072.20 -0.6511.49 422.09
Essex Cty 2.35 11.38 418.242.25 11.54 423.93
Mdsx Low 2.23 11.26 413.832.15 11.44 420.26
Mdsx High 2.35 11.38 418.242.20 11.49 422.09
Mdsx Average 2.29 -0.5211.32 416.032.18 -0.6711.46 421.17
Hensall 2.33 11.36 417.322.20 11.49 422.09
Bruce 2.30 11.33 416.402.15 11.44 420.26
Putnam 2.35 11.38 418.242.20 11.49 422.09
Burford 2.28 11.31 415.662.20 11.49 422.09
Port Perry 2.25 11.28 414.562.17 11.46 420.99
Norfolk 2.35 11.38 418.242.25 11.54 423.93
Palmerston 2.25 11.28 414.562.20 11.49 422.09
Varna 2.30 11.33 416.402.20 11.49 422.09
Trenton 2.35 11.38 418.242.20 11.49 422.09
Winchester 2.25 11.28 414.562.25 11.54 423.93
North Gower 2.20 11.23 412.722.23 11.52 423.20
Huron FOB 2.45 11.48 421.912.30 11.59 425.77
Kent FOB 2.55 11.58 425.582.25 11.54 423.93
Lambton FOB 2.40 11.43 420.072.30 11.59 425.77
Middlesex FOB2.50 2.50 2.52 N/A 11.53 423.752.27 11.56 424.67
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.91 11.94 438.812.46 11.75 431.65
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.90 11.93 438.442.75 12.04 442.30
Prescott N/A 2.45 11.74 431.28
Port Colborne N/A 2.66 11.95 439.00
Toledo El. -0.33 8.70 319.67-0.66 8.62 316.83
Exchange rate was 1.3296 down 0.0099
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower to lower.
JUL19 HI 5.31 JUL19 HI 5.31
LOW 5.14 1/4 LOW 5.14 1/4
CLOSE 5.22 1/4 Down 9 1/4 CLOSE 5.22 1/4 Down 9 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
JUL19 HI 5.52 SEP19 HI 5.58 3/4
LOW 5.39 1/2 LOW 5.45 3/4
CLOSE 5.41 1/2 Down 10 3/4 CLOSE 5.48 1/2 Down 10 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.72 1.79 1.59 0.85
CAD $/bu 6.94 7.01 6.81 6.27
CAD $/tonne 255.14 257.59 250.26 230.35
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.65 N/A N/A N/A 1.65 N/A
London 1.68 2.08 1.62 N/A 1.73 2.06 1.60 N/A
Hensall 1.75 N/A 1.65 N/A 1.75 N/A 1.65 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.60 N/A
Bruce 1.70 2.05 1.65 N/A 1.65 2.00 1.60 1.20
Essex N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.65 N/A
Norwich 1.75 N/A 1.65 N/A 1.75 N/A 1.65 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.00 1.70 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.75 N/A 1.65 N/A 1.75 N/A 1.65 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 2.05 1.65 1.40 N/A 2.09 1.64 1.20
Varna 1.85 2.05 1.65 N/A 1.70 2.00 1.60 N/A
Mitchell 1.75 2.00 1.65 N/A 1.75 2.00 1.65 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.91 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.70 1.60 0.85 N/A 2.09 1.69 1.15
W O Feed 2.27
TERMINAL
Port Colbor N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.08 2.42 1.95 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.92 N/A N/A N/A 1.85 N/A
Toledo El. 5.42US 7.21CA 5.42US 7.21CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.85 2.19 1.72 1.14
CAD $/bu 7.08 7.41 6.94 6.63
CAD $/tonne 260.03 272.24 255.14 243.54
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 517.98
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00
Futures Prices as of close, June 19, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 4.41 ↑ 11 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 9.03 ↑ 25 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.22 ↓ 05 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.48 ↓ 25 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.57 ↓ 05 cents
Oats CBOT July 2.85 ↓ 15 cents
Canadian $ Sep 0.7530 ↑ 0.45 points
Corn:
Corn broke through our target of $4.40 and I am of the opinion that we have turned the corner on this trend. The downtrend started back in August 2012 when corn topped out at a record $8.43 per bushel on the September futures contract. Since that date, we have ben sliding lower to the recent lows of $3.01 per bushel in September 2016. Markets tend to trend for several years and once a trend is reversed it will usually run for several years in the new direction. Just to clarify, this does not mean corn will explode to the upside, but rather the hedge funds and professional traders will view corn as a bull market and buy the dips as opposed to selling the rallies as they would in a bear market. Even in a bull market, we need to expect market corrections and sideways movement for prolonged periods.
Initial support is seen at $4.25 and while major support is now at the $.385 - $4 range on the July futures. The primary trend is now neutral to bullish. Once this current correction is complete, I expect a re-test of the recent highs of $4.64 on the July futures and later this summer a shot towards our next target of $5 per bushel.
Soybeans:
Soybeans once again rallied to our overhead target zone of $9.25 and has pulled back. Soybeans are not as resilient as the other grains, however, there could still be surprises during the growing season. July futures show overhead resistance at the $9.25 to $9.50 level on the front month contract, while support is seen at the $8.50 level. The charts are friendly at this point, but we need much higher prices before the technical indicators turn positive as we have seen with both wheat and corn.
Indicators are still mixed and support is seen at the $8.50 level on the July futures with major resistance at the $9.25 - $9.40 level. The primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
Wheat rallied exactly to our $5.50 resistance level as indicated in our last commentary before reversing. I am very happy with the progress on our technical charts, however, I feel we need to have a good correction before resuming our bullish momentum. My first support is back to the $5 level on the July futures and possibly we could see a move back to the $4.80 level. I feel very strongly that the weather issues that were responsible for most of this rally will return at a later date and it will fuel this bullish move along with political uncertainties, possibly for the remainder of the year. The real test will come when we break through the $6 level on the futures. At that point we will be in a full-blown bull market which could last for years.
Indicators are positive with a primary trend neutral to bullish.
The solid support is now at $4.80 on the July futures.
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Harvest 2019 prices as of the close, June 19, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $259.54/MT ($7.06/bu), HRW @ $271.73/MT ($7.40/bu),
HRS @ $242.95/MT ($6.61/bu), SRW @ $254.66/MT ($6.93/bu).
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20190619/82a17ef7/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: corn.txt
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20190619/82a17ef7/attachment-0001.txt>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: grain.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 512662 bytes
Desc: grain.pdf
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20190619/82a17ef7/attachment-0002.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 619972 bytes
Desc: wheatcom.pdf
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20190619/82a17ef7/attachment-0003.pdf>
More information about the Farmmarketnews
mailing list