[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jun 12 15:25:39 EDT 2019
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, June 12
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3324 up 0.0043
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
JUL19 HI 4.34 1/2 DEC19 HI 4.52 3/4
LOW 4.24 LOW 4.42 3/4
CLOSE4.30 Up 2 1/4 CLOSE 4.48 1/2 Up 1 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP19+SEP19+DEC19
CK Low 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.10 5.59 219.87
CK High 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.15 5.64 221.84
CK Avg 1.35 -0.06 5.65 222.43 1.14 -0.26 5.63 221.51
Essex Cty 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.15 5.64 221.84
Mdsx Low 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.10 5.59 219.87
Mdsx High 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.15 5.64 221.84
Mdsx Avg 1.35 -0.06 5.65 222.43 1.13 -0.27 5.61 220.86
Hensall 1.38 5.68 223.41 1.10 5.59 219.87
Bruce 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.10 5.59 219.87
Putnam 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.10 5.59 219.87
Burford 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.15 5.64 221.84
Port Perry 1.25 5.55 218.49 1.15 5.64 221.84
Norfolk 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.15 5.64 221.84
Palmerston 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.25 5.74 225.78
Varna 1.35 5.65 222.43 1.05 5.54 217.90
Trenton 1.30 5.60 220.46 1.10 5.59 219.87
Winchester 1.20 5.50 216.53 1.20 5.69 223.81
North Gower 1.20 5.50 216.53 1.18 5.67 223.02
Huron FOB 1.63 5.93 233.45 1.15 5.64 221.84
Kent FOB 1.60 5.90 232.27 1.15 5.64 221.84
Lamb FOB 1.60 5.90 232.27 1.15 5.64 221.84
Mdsx FOB 1.60 1.60N/A N/A 5.90 232.27 1.15 5.64 221.84
FOB SW Que 2.04 6.34 249.59 1.25 5.74 225.78
Track 1.80 6.10 240.15N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.60 1.50N/A N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.90 1.95 1.30 5.79 227.75
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 5.84 229.71
W O Feed 1.91 6.21 244.48
US Rep 2.05 6.35 249.99
Toledo El. 0.17 4.47 176.10 -0.13 4.35 171.32
TRANSFER
Port ColbornN/A N/A
MID SD CRN 1.12 1/2 5.61
HI SD CRN 1.15 1 5.63 1/2
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3324 up 0.0043
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.
JUL19 HI 8.83 1/4 NOV19 HI 9.10 1/2
LOW 8.53 1/4 LOW 8.80 3/4
CLOSE8.78 Up 18 3/4 CLOSE 9.05 1/2 Up 18 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+AUG1+NOV19
CK Low 2.05 10.83 397.931.94 11.00 404.00
CK High 2.10 10.88 399.772.05 11.11 408.04
CK Average 2.08 -0.6310.86 399.041.97 -0.7811.03 405.22
Essex Cty 2.05 10.83 397.931.95 11.01 404.36
Mdsx Low 2.03 10.81 397.201.89 10.95 402.16
Mdsx High 2.10 10.88 399.771.95 11.01 404.36
Mdsx Average 2.07 -0.6410.85 398.491.92 -0.8210.98 403.26
Hensall 2.08 10.86 398.851.95 11.01 404.36
Bruce 2.05 10.83 397.931.95 11.01 404.36
Putnam 2.10 10.88 399.771.95 11.01 404.36
Burford 2.08 10.86 399.041.94 11.00 404.00
Port Perry 2.05 10.83 397.931.91 10.97 402.89
Norfolk 2.05 10.83 397.931.95 11.01 404.36
Palmerston 2.15 10.93 401.612.00 11.06 406.20
Varna 2.05 10.83 397.931.95 11.01 404.36
Trenton 2.05 10.83 397.931.90 10.96 402.53
Winchester N/A 2.10 11.16 409.88
North Gower 1.98 10.76 395.362.00 11.06 406.20
Huron FOB 2.20 10.98 403.452.05 11.11 408.04
Kent FOB 2.25 11.03 405.281.95 11.01 404.36
Lambton FOB 2.10 10.88 399.772.10 11.16 409.88
Middlesex FOB2.23 2.30 2.32 N/A 11.01 404.552.08 11.14 409.14
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.58 11.36 417.412.41 11.47 421.27
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.60 11.38 418.142.40 11.46 420.90
Prescott N/A 2.45 11.51 422.74
Port Colborne N/A 2.46 11.52 423.10
Toledo El. -0.36 8.42 309.39-0.67 8.39 308.23
Exchange rate was 1.3324 up 0.0043
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
JUL19 HI 5.28 JUL19 HI 5.28
LOW 5.13 LOW 5.13
CLOSE 5.26 1/4 Up 8 1/4 CLOSE 5.26 1/4 Up 8 1/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL19 HI 5.73 1/2 SEP19 HI 5.82 1/4
LOW 5.61 3/4 LOW 5.70 3/4
CLOSE 5.64 3/4 Down 4 3/4 CLOSE 5.73 Down 5
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.75 1.82 1.62 0.94
CAD $/bu 7.01 7.08 6.88 6.59
CAD $/tonne 257.65 260.09 252.75 242.22
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.50 N/A N/A N/A 1.50 N/A
London 1.63 2.03 1.57 N/A 1.68 2.01 1.55 N/A
Hensall 1.60 N/A 1.50 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.50 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.55 N/A
Bruce 1.55 1.90 1.50 N/A 1.55 1.90 1.50 1.20
Essex N/A N/A 1.50 N/A N/A N/A 1.50 N/A
Norwich 1.60 N/A 1.50 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.50 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.85 1.60 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.60 N/A 1.50 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.50 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.50 N/A N/A N/A 1.50 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.50 N/A N/A N/A 1.50 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.95 1.55 1.40 N/A 2.00 1.60 1.20
Varna 1.70 1.90 1.50 N/A 1.60 1.90 1.50 N/A
Mitchell 1.60 1.85 1.50 N/A 1.60 1.85 1.50 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.66 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.70 1.45 0.85 N/A 2.05 1.65 1.15
W O Feed 2.14
TERMINAL
Port Colbor N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.03 2.36 1.90 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.95 N/A N/A N/A 1.95 N/A
Toledo El. 5.46US 7.28CA 5.46US 7.28CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.88 2.22 1.75 1.24
CAD $/bu 7.15 7.48 7.01 6.97
CAD $/tonne 262.54 274.78 257.65 256.06
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 519.75
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 205.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for June 12, 2019
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Futures Prices as of close, June 12, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 4.30 ↑ 15 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 8.78 ↑ 09 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.26 ↑ 35 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.73 ↑ 15 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.62 ↑ 17 cents
Oats CBOT July 3.00 ↑ 08 cents
Canadian $ Jun 0.7500 ↑ 0.45 points
Corn:
Corn traded between the $4 and $4.40 range for the past week and performed as we suggested it would. Going forward, the charts seem to indicate a clear path for price action. Since we are now pushing the upper envelope of the price zone for the July futures, we will need fresh news to capitalize on further upside potential. If we fail to see more newsworthy events in the coming weeks, the prices could slip below the $4 level and correct further, possibly back towards the $3.80 level. However, I personally feel that will not be the case and we will see a significant move in the coming weeks. This will be identified by a close above $4.40 in which case we will see a solid move towards the $4.80 - $5 range on the lead month futures in the summer months. If and when the $4.40 level is convincingly negated on a close, we are embarking a new bull-run that could last for years.
Initial support is seen at $4 and again at $3.80, and our overhead resistance is now $4.40 on the July futures. The primary trend is now neutral, but a close above the $4.50 level would turn this market bullish.
Soybeans:
Soybeans had another quiet week, ending up just eight cents higher than where it started. Soybeans are still the laggard, but as long as we stay above the critical $8 level, there is hope for a move into bullish territory. We did receive a red buy signal from the May 24 weekend and prices are inching higher. The all-important $9.40 level on the July futures is lurking just above and we should see a challenge to that area coming into the summer.
Indicators are still mixed and support is seen at the $8 level on the July futures with major resistance at the $9.25 - $9.40 level. The primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
Wheat ended up the week about 25 cents higher on the July futures, however, we are in a wide range and the chart pattern has not been altered by this swing. The July futures gave us a buy signal back on May 16 and it is still intact. The charts suggest a break above $5.30 would give us at least a 20 cent rally to minor resistance at the $5.50 level and the possibility of a shot at the more significant $6.20 level on the lead month futures and more importantly a full blown bull run. The wheat has been the price percentage leader for the past year, but there may be a contender for this status if we continue to see more of the recent chart action in the corn market.
I believe most of the price generators going forward will be surprises in political and, even more so, weather-related issues. I feel it is only a matter of time before we see a full-blown bull market in the grains.
Indicators are positive with a primary trend neutral to bullish.
The solid support is now at $4.50 on the July futures.
Harvest 2019 prices as of the close, June 12, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $262.59/MT ($7.15/bu), HRW @ $274.84/MT ($7.48/bu),
HRS @ $256.22/MT ($6.97/bu), SRW @ $257.69/MT ($7.01/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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