[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jul 3 15:39:18 EDT 2019
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, July 3
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3048 down 0.0039
Chicago corn closed higher to sharply higher.
SEP19 HI 4.37 DEC19 HI 4.41 1/2
LOW 4.19 3/4 LOW 4.26 1/2
CLOSE4.36 3/4 Up 17 3/4 CLOSE 4.41 1/4 Up 15 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP19+DEC19+DEC19
CK Low 1.40 5.77 227.06 1.25 5.66 222.92
CK High 1.45 5.82 229.02 1.25 5.66 222.92
CK Avg 1.44 0.08 5.81 228.70 1.25 -0.07 5.66 222.92
Essex Cty 1.45 5.82 229.02 1.25 5.66 222.92
Mdsx Low 1.40 5.77 227.06 1.25 5.66 222.92
Mdsx High 1.45 5.82 229.02 1.25 5.66 222.92
Mdsx Avg 1.43 0.07 5.79 228.04 1.25 -0.07 5.66 222.92
Hensall 1.48 5.84 230.01 1.28 5.69 223.91
Bruce 1.45 5.82 229.02 1.25 5.66 222.92
Putnam 1.45 5.82 229.02 1.25 5.66 222.92
Burford 1.45 5.82 229.02 1.25 5.66 222.92
Port Perry 1.40 5.77 227.06 1.20 5.61 220.95
Norfolk 1.45 5.82 229.02 1.25 5.66 222.92
Palmerston 1.40 5.77 227.06 1.25 5.66 222.92
Varna 1.45 5.82 229.02 1.25 5.66 222.92
Trenton 1.30 5.67 223.12 1.25 5.66 222.92
Winchester 1.40 5.77 227.06 1.40 5.81 228.83
North Gower 1.20 5.57 219.18 1.30 5.71 224.89
Huron FOB 1.82 6.19 243.59 1.35 5.76 226.86
Kent FOB 1.70 6.07 238.87 1.25 5.66 222.92
Lamb FOB 1.80 6.17 242.80 1.35 5.76 226.86
Mdsx FOB 2.00 2.10 2.10N/A 6.37 250.68 1.35 5.76 226.86
FOB SW Que 2.61 6.98 274.69 1.34 5.75 226.47
Track 1.85 6.22 244.77N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A 2.45 2.46 2.05 1.53 5.94 233.95
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A 1.79N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 1.90 1.90 1.90 2.00 6.27 246.74 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.70N/A N/A N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A 1.97 1.95 2.00 N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.65 1.50 5.91 232.76
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.80 1.80 1.85 1.50 5.91 232.76
W O Feed 2.09 6.46 254.30
US Rep 2.24 6.61 260.13
Toledo El. 0.39 4.76 187.35 0.13 4.54 178.84
TRANSFER
Port ColbornN/A N/A
MID SD CRN 1.25 5.66 1/4
HI SD CRN 1.25 5.66 1/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3048 down 0.0039
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
AUG19 HI 8.90 1/4 NOV19 HI 9.09 1/4
LOW 8.77 LOW 8.96
CLOSE8.89 3/4 Up 10 CLOSE 9.08 3/4 Up 10
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+NOV1+NOV19
CK Low 2.05 10.95 402.251.90 10.99 403.72
CK High 2.10 11.00 404.092.00 11.09 407.40
CK Average 2.07 -0.4910.96 402.861.94 -0.6211.03 405.25
Essex Cty 2.05 10.95 402.251.90 10.99 403.72
Mdsx Low 2.00 10.90 400.411.90 10.99 403.72
Mdsx High 2.05 10.95 402.251.90 10.99 403.72
Mdsx Average 2.03 -0.5310.92 401.331.90 -0.6510.99 403.72
Hensall 2.05 10.95 402.251.90 10.99 403.72
Bruce 2.05 10.95 402.251.90 10.99 403.72
Putnam 2.05 10.95 402.251.90 10.99 403.72
Burford 2.05 10.95 402.251.95 11.04 405.56
Port Perry 2.02 10.92 401.151.92 11.01 404.46
Norfolk 2.05 10.95 402.251.90 10.99 403.72
Palmerston 2.15 11.05 405.931.95 11.04 405.56
Varna 2.05 10.95 402.251.90 10.99 403.72
Trenton 2.15 11.05 405.931.95 11.04 405.56
Winchester N/A 1.85 10.94 401.88
North Gower 2.05 10.95 402.252.00 11.09 407.40
Huron FOB 2.20 11.10 407.762.00 11.09 407.40
Kent FOB 2.20 11.10 407.761.90 10.99 403.72
Lambton FOB 2.30 11.20 411.441.95 11.04 405.56
Middlesex FOB2.25 2.32 N/A N/A 11.15 409.602.02 11.11 408.13
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.53 11.43 419.892.20 11.29 414.74
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.55 11.45 420.622.35 11.44 420.26
Prescott N/A 2.45 11.54 423.93
Port Colborne N/A 2.34 11.43 419.89
Toledo El. -0.20 8.70 319.74-0.65 8.44 309.97
Exchange rate was 1.3048 down 0.0039
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
SEP19 HI 5.14 1/2 JUL10 HI 5.44 1/2
LOW 5.01 LOW 5.36 1/4
CLOSE 5.14 Up 10 3/4 CLOSE 5.44 Up 5 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP19 HI 5.41 1/2 SEP10 HI 5.88
LOW 5.35 LOW 5.85
CLOSE 5.40 Up 3 3/4 CLOSE 5.88 Up 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.83 2.09 1.70 1.12
CAD $/bu 6.97 7.23 6.84 6.52
CAD $/tonne 256.02 265.61 251.22 239.72
Direct MarkHarvest 2019 Harvest 2020
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.55 N/A N/A N/A 1.15 N/A
London 1.54 1.87 1.54 N/A 0.79 1.31 0.99 N/A
Hensall 1.65 N/A 1.55 N/A 1.35 N/A 1.15 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.20 N/A
Bruce 1.60 1.95 1.55 1.20 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Essex N/A N/A 1.55 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Norwich 1.65 N/A 1.55 N/A 1.35 N/A 1.15 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.90 1.60 N/A N/A 1.50 1.15 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.65 N/A 1.55 N/A 1.35 N/A 1.15 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.55 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.55 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.95 1.55 1.20 N/A 1.57 1.17 0.90
Varna 1.65 1.95 1.55 N/A 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Mitchell 1.65 1.90 1.55 N/A 1.35 1.50 1.15 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.63 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 2.05 1.65 1.10 N/A 1.57 1.27 0.80
W O Feed 2.19
TERMINAL
Port Colbor 1.89 2.22 1.89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Toledo El. 5.39US 7.03CA 5.39US 7.02CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 20 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.39 1.65 1.32 0.87
CAD $/bu 6.83 7.09 6.76 6.75
CAD $/tonne 250.83 260.40 248.44 247.96
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 496.16
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00 - 200.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for July 3, 2019
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Futures Prices as of close, July 3, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Sep 4.36 ↓ 08 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 8.96 ↓ 11 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 5.14 ↓ 28 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.40 ↓ 20 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 4.44 ↓ 35 cents
Oats CBOT Sep 2.85 ↑ 05 cents
Canadian $ Sep 0.7660 ↑ 0.25 points
Corn:
Corn had a very healthy pull-back this week as we probed the down-side to the to the $4.13 level on the futures before finding support. This is about a 50 cent pullback from the $4.69 highs of June 17. Going into the long July 4 weekend we are finding renewed strength as the September crop is back to the mid $4.30 range. The chart pattern suggests this is a short covering rally as the long weekend is not a time to be short this market. The momentum however, suggests we will see more downside before we challenge our recent multi year highs of $4.69 on the current September futures contract.
I am still confident that we have turned the corner on the bear market in corn, but this will take time to play out as we closely monitor both the political and environmental reports. The trend change suggests prices will continue to advance into future months but like most commodities, it will be two steps forward and one step back. Charts suggest a new bull market could see higher prices for the next several years as more weather and political issues come to light. The key word to describe the movement in the coming months would have to be volatility.
Initial support is seen at $4 on the September futures.
The primary trend is now neutral to bullish. Once this current correction is complete, I expect a re-test of the recent highs of $4.69 on the September futures and later this summer a shot towards our next target of $5 per bushel.
We are now using the September futures for analysis purposes.
Soybeans:
September soybeans once again rallied to our overhead target zone of $9.35 ($9.25 on July) and have failed to penetrate the trend line. We received a mild sell signal on the charts this week, but in spite of that, we managed to close about 10 cents higher at $$9.08 on the September futures. The charts suggest more downward pressure and consolidation barring any unforeseen weather or political issues.
Overhead resistance is still pegged at the $9.35 to $9.50 level on the front month contract, while support is seen at the $8.50 level.
Indicators are still mixed, and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
After failing at the $5.58 highs on the July contract, we moved quickly back to our target of $5. As indicated in our last report, this created an outside day, which is a negative for the short-term outlook. Despite this sell signal we managed to gain 10 cents to close at $5.13 on the September futures. Again, I believe this is short covering in advance of the upcoming July 4 weekend.
I am expecting more down side in the coming weeks providing there are no surprises in the news. We have a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report due on July 11 which could also impact prices.
Indicators are positive with a primary trend neutral to bullish. Solid support is now at $4.70 on the September futures while overhead resistance remains at the recent highs of $5.50 - $5.60 also on September.
Harvest 2019 prices as of the close, July 3, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $256.06/MT ($6.97/bu), HRW @ $265.65/MT ($7.23/bu),
HRS @ $239.75/MT ($6.53/bu), SRW @ $251.26/MT ($6.84/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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