[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jan 17 15:18:39 EST 2019
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, January 17
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3242 up 0.0017
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.
MAR19 HI 3.81 1/2 DEC19 HI 4.04 1/4
LOW 3.73 3/4 LOW 3.98 3/4
CLOSE3.80 Up 6 CLOSE 4.03 1/4 Up 4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR19+MAY19+MAY19
CK Low 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
CK High 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.90 4.93 194.18
CK Avg 0.95 -0.21 4.75 187.00 0.86 -0.33 4.89 192.61
Essex Cty 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Mdsx Low 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Mdsx High 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Mdsx Avg 0.95 -0.21 4.75 187.00 0.85 -0.34 4.88 192.22
Hensall 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Bruce 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Putnam 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Burford 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Port Perry 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.90 4.93 194.18
Norfolk 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Palmerston 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Varna 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.85 4.88 192.22
Trenton 0.95 4.75 187.00 0.90 4.93 194.18
Winchester 1.15 4.95 194.87 1.15 5.18 204.03
North Gower 1.15 4.95 194.87 1.12 5.15 202.84
Huron FOB 1.25 5.05 198.81 0.95 4.98 196.15
Kent FOB 1.20 5.00 196.84 0.90 4.93 194.18
Lamb FOB 1.30 5.10 200.78 0.95 4.98 196.15
Mdsx FOB 1.25 1.25N/A N/A 5.05 198.81 0.95 4.98 196.15
FOB SW Que 1.65 5.45 214.56N/A
Track 1.50 5.30 208.65N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A 1.49 1.55 1.12 5.15 202.84
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.14 5.17 203.63
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.47 1.47 1.52 1.12 5.15 202.84
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.50 1.45 1.50 N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.50 1.15 5.18 204.03
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.25 5.28 207.96
W O Feed 1.68 5.48 215.82
US Rep 1.81 5.61 220.86
Toledo El. -0.16 3.64 143.34 -0.26 3.77 148.34
MID SD CRN 0.95 4.75
HI SD CRN 0.95 4.75
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3242 up 0.0017
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.
MAR19 HI 9.12 NOV19 HI 9.50 3/4
LOW 8.94 1/4 LOW 9.37 1/4
CLOSE9.07 3/4 Up 13 1/4 CLOSE 9.48 1/4 Up 10 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAR1+MAY19
CK Low 2.04 11.12 408.502.18 11.66 428.52
CK High 2.10 11.18 410.702.25 11.73 431.10
CK Average 2.08 -0.6511.16 409.892.24 -0.6211.72 430.58
Essex Cty 2.05 11.13 408.872.30 11.78 432.93
Mdsx Low 2.08 11.16 409.972.22 11.70 429.99
Mdsx High 2.10 11.18 410.702.25 11.73 431.10
Mdsx Average 2.09 -0.6411.17 410.342.24 -0.6311.72 430.54
Hensall 2.05 11.13 408.872.25 11.73 431.10
Bruce 2.00 11.08 407.032.25 11.73 431.10
Putnam 2.10 11.18 410.702.25 11.73 431.10
Burford 2.08 11.16 409.972.22 11.70 429.99
Port Perry 2.04 11.12 408.502.18 11.66 428.52
Norfolk 2.05 11.13 408.872.25 11.73 431.10
Palmerston 1.90 10.98 403.352.33 11.81 434.04
Varna 2.00 11.08 407.032.25 11.73 431.10
Trenton 2.10 11.18 410.702.25 11.73 431.10
Winchester 2.09 11.17 410.342.23 11.71 430.36
North Gower 2.22 11.30 415.112.25 11.73 431.10
Huron FOB 2.10 11.18 410.702.35 11.83 434.77
Kent FOB 2.15 11.23 412.542.25 11.73 431.10
Lambton FOB 1.95 11.03 405.192.40 11.88 436.61
Middlesex FOB2.00 2.14 2.20 2.32 11.08 407.032.34 11.82 434.40
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.59 N/A N/A N/A 11.67 428.712.72 12.20 448.37
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.35 11.43 419.892.70 12.18 447.63
Prescott 1.90 10.98 403.352.60 12.08 443.96
Toledo El. -0.60 8.48 311.65-0.53 8.95 328.98
Exchange rate was 1.3242 up 0.0017
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR19 HI 5.22 1/2 JUL19 HI 5.32 1/4
LOW 5.09 LOW 5.20 1/4
CLOSE 5.17 3/4 Up 5 1/4 CLOSE 5.28 1/4 Up 5 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
MAR19 HI 5.74 SEP19 HI 5.91
LOW 5.62 3/4 LOW 5.82 3/4
CLOSE 5.72 Up 7 CLOSE 5.90 1/2 Up 6 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.55 1.61 1.41 0.80
CAD $/bu 6.72 6.79 6.59 6.52
CAD $/tonne 247.06 249.49 242.19 239.39
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.30 N/A N/A N/A 1.15 N/A
London 1.47 1.34 1.27 N/A 1.48 1.35 1.22 N/A
Hensall 1.50 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.55 N/A 1.15 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.15 N/A
Bruce 1.50 1.55 1.30 1.10 1.50 1.45 1.20 1.00
Essex N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 1.20 N/A
Norwich 1.50 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.55 N/A 1.15 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 1.30 N/A N/A 1.30 1.15 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.50 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.55 N/A 1.15 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 1.20 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 1.20 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.60 1.15 1.10 N/A 1.50 1.20 1.00
Varna 1.50 1.60 1.30 N/A 1.40 1.50 1.20 N/A
Mitchell 1.50 1.30 1.30 N/A 1.55 1.30 1.15 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.74 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.35 1.20 0.64 N/A 1.39 1.29 0.51
W O Feed 1.87
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.88 N/A N/A N/A 1.84 N/A
Toledo El. 5.13US 6.79CA 5.13US 6.79CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.51 1.57 1.38 0.78
CAD $/bu 6.79 6.86 6.66 6.69
CAD $/tonne 249.49 251.92 244.63 245.72
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 489.65
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 185.00
--
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for January 16, 2019
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Futures Prices as of close, January 16, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Mar 3.74 ↓ 08 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 8.94 ↓ 25 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.12 ↓ 08 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.65 ↓ 05 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.95 ↓ 10 cents
Oats CBOT Mar 2.95 ↑ 10 cents
Canadian $ Mar 0.7555 ↓ .20 points
Corn:
Corn slipped last week and broke a very short-term support line. This, however, is not a critical line but it bears watching. If we close below $3.70, I feel we may probe the downside for a while longer. Meanwhile, the $3.85 overhead resistance on the March contract will be a tough obstacle to overcome. With the U.S. Department of Agriculture affected by the government shutdown, we may get a few surprises when the reports finally show up on the news wires. Meanwhile, we should keep to a close trading range. Indicators this week appear to be mixed with the short term showing downward pressure while the intermediate trend is still intact and, of course, the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
Like corn, we are seeing weakness in the soybean complex. The daily charts flashed a short-term sell signal today and the uncertainty in the global markets are not helping matters. The March futures support is now at the $8.85 level and a close below that level will likely be cause for more downside probing.
Short-term indicators are now neutral while the primary trend remains down. Support line is at $8.85 and resistance remains at the $9.40 level on the March contract.
Wheat:
Wheat checked back to test the $5 area on the March contract once again and it found good support. Until we get more data from the missing reports it seems we are rangebound. Although I have been touting wheat as the strongest performer for the past few months, we are seeing price pressure from the charts.
We now have our support line well established at the $5 mark on the March futures and our overhead resistance stands at the $5.40 level. We need to stay above the $5 support to keep the positive tone in the futures.
Overall, the weekly charts still look very constructive and if I had to make a decision on marketing, I would be looking for higher prices in the spring. Of course, this is only my opinion and the shenanigans that are happening in both the political and financial arenas will prove to be the judges of whether or not I’m correct.
All indicators are neutral to bullish.
Starting on February 6 2019, GFO will be hosting online webinars for those interested in learning how to utilize futures and options for hedging purposes in most agricultural products. These webinars will be hosted by myself. You can call me directly at 519-767-4123 or signup online at https://gfo.ca/event/grain-marketing-webinar-intro-to-futures/
Harvest 2019 Grain prices as of the close, January 16, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $246.65/MT ($6.71/bu), HRW @ $249.08/MT ($6.78/bu),
HRS @ $242.28/MT ($6.59/bu), SRW @ $241.80/MT ($6.58/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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