[Farmmarketnews] Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Wed Apr 10 16:15:58 EDT 2019

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for April 10, 2019

By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario

Futures Prices as of close, April 10, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT May 3.62 ↓ 10 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 9.02 ↑ 03 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.58 ↓ 13 cents
Wheat Minn. May 5.30 ↓ 20 cents
Wheat Kansas May 4.27 ↓ 10 cents
Oats CBOT May 2.79 ↓ 08 cents
Canadian $ Jun 0.7520 ↑ 0.05 points

Corn:
Corn had a quiet week, but I can’t help but feel pressure from the charts. Unlike the wheat, the corn has not had a blowout drop. This “throw in the towel” attitude is a necessary signal to see a reversal from a long-term downtrend to an uptrend. With the political noise in the global markets, I can’t help but feel that we are going to see this sell-off before the culmination of the price on the charts, especially after we saw a red sell signal on the weekly chart.
For now, the support is seen at the $3.50 level on the May chart and overhead resistance is pegged at $3.85. The intermediate indicators are neutral, and the primary trend remains down.
Next week I will be switching to the July contract for my analysis.

Soybeans:
The May soybean chart continues to track sideways and may continue for some time. The overall feel of the chart suggests a slow roll over and eventual re-test of the $8.80 bottom from the end of March.  The support line remains now at $8.80 on the May futures and overhead resistance is near the $9.50 level. The charts suggest a continued deterioration of prices in the coming months unless we see a positive report of event to give us temporary relief.  We will switch to the July contract for analysis next week. The overhead resistance line at the $9.30 mark on the futures continues to be a solid wall.

Wheat:
Despite negative news, the Chicago wheat futures performed well again this week as it continues to climb towards our $5 target on the lead month contract.  The May contract is currently quiet at the $4.60 level and appears to be getting ready to challenge the $4.90 - $5 level in the coming weeks. If we were to reverse from these levels, a close below the $4.20 on the May futures could bring us back to the $4 level or lower. For now, the short-term indicators are neutral and we still have a positive tone on the long-term charts.
Good support is still seen at the $4.20 level on the futures and our overhead challenge is still to clear this $4.85 level on a close

Cash Grain prices as of the close, April 10, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $223.87/MT ($6.09/bu), HRW @ $226.32/MT ($6.16/bu),
 HRS @ $224.85/MT ($6.12/bu),  SRW @ $218.98/MT ($5.96/bu).
----

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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