[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 20 15:27:52 EDT 2018


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 20
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2889 down 0.0007
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.

      DEC18   HI 3.56  1/4                    DEC18    HI 3.56  1/4
             LOW 3.44  3/4                            LOW 3.44  3/4
            CLOSE3.52  1/2  Up 6 3/4                CLOSE 3.52  1/2  Up 6 3/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC18+DEC18+MAR19
CK Low       1.10                        4.63 182.08  0.85         4.38 172.24
CK High      1.25                        4.78 187.98  0.95         4.48 176.17
CK Avg       1.13                   0.09 4.66 183.39  0.89 -0.09   4.42 173.88
Essex Cty    1.15                        4.68 184.05  0.90         4.43 174.20
Mdsx Low     1.10                        4.63 182.08  0.90         4.43 174.20
Mdsx High    1.10                        4.63 182.08  0.90         4.43 174.20
Mdsx Avg     1.10                   0.06 4.63 182.08  0.90 -0.08   4.43 174.20
Hensall      1.13                        4.65 183.06  0.93         4.45 175.19
Bruce        1.15                        4.68 184.05  0.95         4.48 176.17
Putnam      N/A                                       0.90         4.43 174.20
Burford      1.10                        4.63 182.08  0.90         4.43 174.20
Port Perry   1.10                        4.63 182.08  0.90         4.43 174.20
Norfolk      1.15                        4.68 184.05  0.95         4.48 176.17
Palmerston   1.25                        4.78 187.98  0.90         4.43 174.20
Varna        1.15                        4.68 184.05  0.95         4.48 176.17
Trenton     N/A                                       1.00         4.53 178.14
Winchester  N/A                                       1.27         4.80 188.77
North Gower  1.18                        4.71 185.23  1.25         4.78 187.98
Huron FOB    1.20                        4.73 186.02  1.01         4.54 178.54
Kent FOB     1.20                        4.73 186.02  0.92         4.45 174.99
Lamb FOB     1.05                        4.58 180.11  1.00         4.53 178.14
Mdsx FOB     1.30N/A   N/A   N/A         4.83 189.95  1.00         4.53 178.14
FOB SW Que   1.98                        5.51 216.72N/A
Track        1.48                        5.00 196.84N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A     1.16                 N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A     1.38                 N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A    1.40  1.15  1.15                   1.15         4.68 184.05
Sarn-Eth    N/A  N/A     1.15N/A                      1.15         4.68 184.05
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A    1.30  1.25  1.25                   1.25         4.78 187.98
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A     1.35N/A                    1.35*          4.88 191.92
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.40  1.40                   1.40         4.93 193.89
W O Feed     1.68                        5.20 204.75

US Rep       1.57                        5.10 200.58
Toledo El.  -0.39                        3.14 123.55 -0.39         3.14 123.58


MID SD CRN                                            0.90 1       4.42 1/2
HI SD CRN                                             0.95         4.47 1/2
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.2889 down 0.0007
Chicago soybeans closed moderately higher.

       NOV18   HI 8.55                NOV19    HI 9.15  1/4
              LOW 8.25  1/4                   LOW 8.89  3/4
             CLOSE8.50  1/4  Up 20 1/4      CLOSE 9.11  3/4  Up 19 1/2

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+NOV1+JAN19
CK Low       2.45                     10.95 402.441.72      10.84 398.21
CK High      2.45                     10.95 402.441.90      11.02 404.82
CK Average   2.45                -0.0110.95 402.441.80 -0.6310.91 400.97
Essex Cty    2.25                     10.75 395.091.80      10.92 401.15
Mdsx Low     2.45                     10.95 402.441.75      10.87 399.31
Mdsx High    2.48                     10.98 403.541.75      10.87 399.31
Mdsx Average 2.47                0.01 10.97 402.991.75 -0.6710.87 399.31
Hensall      2.45                     10.95 402.441.75      10.87 399.31
Bruce        2.45                     10.95 402.441.75      10.87 399.31
Putnam       2.55                     11.05 406.111.85      10.97 402.99
Burford      2.52                     11.02 405.011.79      10.91 400.78
Port Perry   2.45                     10.95 402.441.72      10.84 398.21
Norfolk      2.45                     10.95 402.441.75      10.87 399.31
Palmerston   2.50                     11.00 404.271.95      11.07 406.66
Varna        2.50                     11.00 404.271.80      10.92 401.15
Trenton      2.45                     10.95 402.441.80      10.92 401.15
Winchester   2.45                     10.95 402.441.79      10.91 400.78
North Gower  2.65                     11.15 409.782.00      11.12 408.50
Huron FOB    2.55                     11.05 406.111.85      10.97 402.99
Kent FOB     2.45                     10.95 402.441.75      10.87 399.31
Lambton FOB  2.45                     10.95 402.441.90      11.02 404.82
Middlesex FOB2.62 2.56 2.69 2.62      11.12 408.681.88      11.00 404.09

PROCESSORS
Windsor      2.46                     10.96 402.80 N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton     2.75                     11.25 413.462.05      11.17 410.34
Prescott     2.75                     11.25 413.462.33      11.45 420.62

Toledo El.   -0.64                     7.86 288.73-0.32      8.80 323.20


Exchange rate was 1.2889 down 0.0007
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC18      HI     5.25  3/4             JUL19   HI         5.59
           LOW        5.16                      LOW     5.50  1/2
           CLOSE  5.24   Up 1 1/2               CLOSE   5.56  1/4  Up 1 1/4

Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
DEC18      HI         5.91              SEP19   HI         6.20
           LOW        5.83                      LOW     6.15  3/4
           CLOSE  5.88  1/2  Up  1/2            CLOSE   6.18  1/2  Down  1/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.06          1.26            1.06          0.54
CAD $/bu              6.30          6.50            6.30          6.43
CAD $/tonne         231.59        238.69          231.59        236.09


Direct MarkHarvest 2018                 Harvest 2019
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.80    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.90    N/A
London      0.91    0.97   0.78    N/A    1.13    N/A    0.87    N/A
Hensall     0.90    N/A    0.80    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.90    N/A
Bruce       0.85    1.15   0.80   0.55    1.15    1.30   0.95   0.65
Essex        N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.86    N/A
Norwich     0.90    N/A    0.80    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    1.00   0.80    N/A    N/A     1.20   0.95    N/A
Kent Bridge 0.90    N/A    0.80    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.80    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.90    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.80    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.90    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.15   0.95   0.55    N/A     1.10   1.05    N/A
Varna       1.00    1.20   0.80    N/A    1.15    1.30   0.95    N/A
Mitchell    0.90    1.05   0.80    N/A    1.15    1.25   0.95    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.02    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.10   0.90   0.45    N/A     1.20   1.10   0.30
W O Feed                   1.44


PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.45    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.72    N/A

Toledo El. 5.09US         6.56CA         5.41US         6.96CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.14          1.21            1.14          0.42
CAD $/bu              6.70          6.77            6.70          6.60
CAD $/tonne         246.30        248.67          246.30        242.64

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             497.59
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      220.00 - 225.00


Wednesday, September 19, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.46 ↓ 05 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.30 ↓ 08 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.22 ↑ 18 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.86 ↑ 21 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.26 ↑ 20 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.49        ↑ 06 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7746 ↑ 0.55 points

Corn:
As expected, corn is being pressured by the soy complex, and the $3.30 support level we have spoken of is within striking distance. A close below the $3.30 support line on the December futures will set us up for a test of the $3 price on the futures.
Initial support is seen at the $3.30 level and more significant support at the $3 level on December.  All indicators are neutral to bearish and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans:
We are getting closer to the all-important $8 price level on the November contract. We remain bearish and I feel we could see a much larger drop in price if we were to close below the $8 futures price on November heading into the fall and harvest season.
The charts continue to look bearish and the flag we mentioned in previous reports suggest a break in prices which could propel us towards the $7 price before Christmas. This, of course, is just my opinion and my analysis of the charts.
All indicators are negative with immediate overhead resistance now at the $8.50 level, while initial support is seen at the $8 level based on the December futures.  Our $8 lows are very critical at this point and a retest of this area could lead to a capitulation and the making of a bottom in prices going into the new year.
All indicators remain negative and the primary trend remains down.




Wheat:

Our $4.90 target area on the downside in the December futures was realized as we touched $4.95 on September 14. We are rebounding in price and are currently back to the $5.25 level on the December contract. Our next challenge on the December futures is an attempt to reach the $5.40-$5.50 level on December.
The weakness in the other grains are weighing on wheat, but unless we break down in soybeans and corn as described above, wheat could limit its sell-off to a simple re-test of $4.90 or possibly even this summer’s lows at the $4.50 level.

Initial support is still seen at the $4.90 level on December futures while overhead resistance is now back at $5.50. Major support is closer to $4, but unless we see a complete meltdown in corn and beans, the likelihood of seeing this number is slim.

Short and intermediate term indicators are negative while the primary trend is still mildly bullish.




Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, September 19, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $230.96/MT ($6.29/bu),  HRW @ $238.07/MT ($6.48/bu),
 HRS @ $236.18/MT ($6.43/bu),   SRW @ $230.96/MT ($6.29/bu).

Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario




Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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