[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 18 15:51:30 EDT 2018


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 18
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3069 up 0.0076
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.

      DEC18   HI 3.73  1/4                    DEC19    HI 4.04
             LOW 3.69  1/2                            LOW 4.01
            CLOSE3.70  3/4  Down 3 1/2              CLOSE 4.02   Down 2 1/2

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC18+MAR19+MAR19
CK Low       0.55                        4.26 167.61  0.75         4.77 187.79
CK High      0.65                        4.36 171.55  0.80         4.82 189.76
CK Avg       0.58                  -0.42 4.29 168.92  0.79 -0.32   4.81 189.43
Essex Cty    0.55                        4.26 167.61  0.75         4.77 187.79
Mdsx Low     0.55                        4.26 167.61  0.80         4.82 189.76
Mdsx High    0.55                        4.26 167.61  0.80         4.82 189.76
Mdsx Avg     0.55                  -0.45 4.26 167.61  0.80 -0.31   4.82 189.76
Hensall      0.55                        4.26 167.61  0.80         4.82 189.76
Bruce        0.60                        4.31 169.58  0.80         4.82 189.76
Putnam       0.65                        4.36 171.55  0.80         4.82 189.76
Burford      0.55                        4.26 167.61  0.80         4.82 189.76
Port Perry   0.85                        4.56 179.42  0.85         4.87 191.72
Norfolk      0.55                        4.26 167.61  0.75         4.77 187.79
Palmerston   0.65                        4.36 171.55  0.80         4.82 189.76
Varna        0.55                        4.26 167.61  0.80         4.82 189.76
Trenton      0.90                        4.61 181.39  0.85         4.87 191.72
Winchester   1.30                        5.01 197.14  0.95         4.97 195.66
North Gower  1.25                        4.96 195.17  0.95         4.97 195.66
Huron FOB    0.85                        4.56 179.42  0.90         4.92 193.69
Kent FOB     0.90                        4.61 181.39  0.85         4.87 191.72
Lamb FOB     1.00                        4.71 185.33  0.80         4.82 189.76
Mdsx FOB     1.05N/A   N/A   N/A         4.76 187.29N/A
FOB SW Que   1.52                        5.23 205.80N/A
Track        1.20                        4.91 193.20N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A     1.16  1.22                   1.06         5.08 199.99
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A     1.36  1.42                   1.23         5.25 206.68
Aylmer-Eth   1.20  1.20  1.25  1.25      4.91 193.20  1.00         5.02 197.63
Sarn-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A    1.25  1.30N/A                      1.05         5.07 199.60
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A    1.35N/A   N/A                     N/A*
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.55N/A                      1.10         5.12 201.57
W O Feed     1.53                        5.24 206.19

US Rep       1.66                        5.37 211.31
Toledo El.  -0.39                        3.32 130.52 -0.26         3.76 148.03


MID SD CRN   0.60                        4.30 3/4
HI SD CRN    0.65                        4.35 3/4
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.3069 up 0.0076
Chicago soybeans closed moderately lower.

       NOV18   HI 8.83  3/4           NOV19    HI 9.42  1/2
              LOW 8.62  3/4                   LOW 9.24  3/4
             CLOSE8.63  1/2  Down 22 1/4    CLOSE 9.24  3/4  Down 20

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+JAN1+JAN19
CK Low       2.60                     11.24 412.821.90      11.15 409.60
CK High      2.85                     11.49 422.001.96      11.21 411.81
CK Average   2.71                0.05 11.35 416.921.94 -0.6411.18 410.89
Essex Cty    2.45                     11.09 407.301.95      11.20 411.44
Mdsx Low     2.80                     11.44 420.161.95      11.20 411.44
Mdsx High    2.81                     11.45 420.531.95      11.20 411.44
Mdsx Average 2.81                0.12 11.44 420.351.95 -0.6311.20 411.44
Hensall      2.83                     11.46 421.081.95      11.20 411.44
Bruce        2.80                     11.44 420.161.80      11.05 405.93
Putnam       2.90                     11.54 423.841.95      11.20 411.44
Burford      2.84                     11.48 421.631.98      11.23 412.54
Port Perry   2.80                     11.44 420.161.94      11.19 411.07
Norfolk      2.80                     11.44 420.161.90      11.15 409.60
Palmerston   2.75                     11.39 418.331.95      11.20 411.44
Varna        2.85                     11.49 422.001.95      11.20 411.44
Trenton      2.85                     11.49 422.001.95      11.20 411.44
Winchester   2.86                     11.50 422.371.91      11.16 409.97
North Gower  2.85                     11.49 422.002.00      11.25 413.27
Huron FOB    2.90                     11.54 423.842.05      11.30 415.11
Kent FOB     2.70                     11.34 416.491.90      11.15 409.60
Lambton FOB  2.95                     11.59 425.682.05      11.30 415.11
Middlesex FOB2.84 3.16 2.97 2.36      11.48 421.632.11      11.36 417.32

PROCESSORS
Windsor      2.79                     11.43 419.80 N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton     3.00                     11.64 427.512.20      11.45 420.62
Prescott     3.07                     11.71 430.092.57      11.82 434.22

Toledo El.   -0.72                     7.92 290.87-0.39      8.86 325.46


Exchange rate was 1.3069 up 0.0076
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC18      HI     5.19  1/2             JUL19   HI      5.56  1/2
           LOW        5.11                      LOW     5.49  3/4
           CLOSE  5.13   Down 4 1/2             CLOSE   5.51  3/4  Down 2 3/4

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC18      HI     5.90  1/2             SEP19   HI      6.14  1/4
           LOW    5.84  1/2                     LOW     6.12  3/4
           CLOSE  5.85   Down 3 1/4             CLOSE   6.12  3/4  Down 2

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.12          1.31            1.12          0.62
CAD $/bu              6.25          6.44            6.25          6.47
CAD $/tonne         229.54        236.75          229.54        237.71


Direct MarkHarvest 2018                 Harvest 2019
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.95    N/A
London      0.97    1.23   0.90    N/A    1.21    1.34   1.01    N/A
Hensall     0.90    N/A    0.90    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.90    N/A
Bruce       0.85    1.20   0.80   0.60    1.00    1.30   0.95   0.65
Essex        N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.00    N/A
Norwich     0.90    N/A    0.90    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    1.00   0.80    N/A    N/A     1.20   0.95    N/A
Kent Bridge 0.90    N/A    0.90    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.95    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.95    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.15   0.95    N/A    N/A     1.10   1.05    N/A
Varna       1.00    1.30   0.90    N/A    1.05    1.30   0.95    N/A
Mitchell    0.90    1.05   0.90    N/A    1.15    1.25   0.95    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.26    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.20   1.00   0.50    N/A     1.26   1.21   0.40
W O Feed                   1.44


PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.57    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.78    N/A

Toledo El. 5.05US         6.60CA         5.37US         6.98CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.20          1.26            1.20          0.47
CAD $/bu              6.72          6.78            6.72          6.60
CAD $/tonne         246.80        249.18          246.80        242.50

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             501.89
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm       205.00



Wednesday, October 17, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.74 ↑ 11 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.86 ↑ 25 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.17 ↑ 05 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.88 ↓ 04 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.21 ↑ 04 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.95        ↑ 12 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7695 ↑ 0.25 points

Corn:
Our red buy signal on the daily chart back on October 1 continues to perform.
We reached our upside target area of $3.80 on October 15 and have since moved back to the $3.75 area. Initial support is now seen at the $3.65 level on December.  Indicators are neutral, but the primary trend is still down. We still need a close above the $4.40 level on the lead month contract to get excited about a major trend reversal.
Soybeans:
Soybeans are still working towards our upside target of $9 on the November futures.  This range of $8 - $9 is still a critical area. A close below the $8 level on November futures would signal more downside, while a break up through the $9.20 level on a close on November, could push us toward the $9.50 level and change the dynamics of our charts to a more bullish scenario.
Our weekly and primary indicators are still negative with a green light on the short-term indicators. Major overhead resistance is now at the $9.20 level, while initial support is seen at the $8 level based on the November futures.  The primary trend remains down.


Wheat:

Wheat continues in our well-defined range of $5 - $5.30 on the December contract. This is well defined and suggests we will see a break to the upside towards our next target of $5.50 in the coming weeks.  Solid support still seen at the $5 level on December Chicago.
Last commentary, we suggested we would see a rise to at least $6 per bushel on the HRS. This week the December HRS contract topped out at $6.02 ½ on October 15.

Good support is still seen at the $5 area on December Chicago futures while overhead resistance is now back at $5.50.

All indicators are positive, and the primary trend is still mildly bullish.  Wheat is still the leading grain of the three in the race for a major trend reversal.



Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, October 17, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $230.51/MT ($6.27/bu),  HRW @ $237.68/MT ($6.47/bu),
 HRS @ $237.92/MT ($6.48/bu),   SRW @ $230.51/MT ($6.27/bu).

Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario



Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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