[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Nov 15 15:15:09 EST 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, November 15
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3158 down 0.0074
Chicago corn closed steady to slightly higher.
DEC18 HI 3.71 3/4 DEC19 HI 4.02 3/4
LOW 3.66 1/2 LOW 3.98 1/2
CLOSE3.67 1/2 Up 1/2 CLOSE 3.99 Unchanged
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR19+MAR19+MAR19
CK Low 0.70 4.38 172.24 0.75 4.74 186.61
CK High 0.75 4.43 174.20 0.80 4.79 188.57
CK Avg 0.74 -0.32 4.42 173.88 0.78 -0.35 4.77 187.92
Essex Cty 0.75 4.43 174.20 0.75 4.74 186.61
Mdsx Low 0.70 4.38 172.24 0.75 4.74 186.61
Mdsx High 0.75 4.43 174.20 0.85 4.84 190.54
Mdsx Avg 0.73 -0.33 4.40 173.22 0.80 -0.34 4.79 188.57
Hensall 0.70 4.38 172.24 0.80 4.79 188.57
Bruce 0.65 4.33 170.27 0.80 4.79 188.57
Putnam 0.70 4.38 172.24 0.80 4.79 188.57
Burford 0.65 4.33 170.27 0.75 4.74 186.61
Port Perry 0.90 4.58 180.11 0.85 4.84 190.54
Norfolk 0.65 4.33 170.27 0.75 4.74 186.61
Palmerston 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.80 4.79 188.57
Varna 0.70 4.38 172.24 0.80 4.79 188.57
Trenton 0.90 4.58 180.11 0.85 4.84 190.54
Winchester 1.30 4.98 195.86 1.00 4.99 196.45
North Gower 1.25 4.93 193.89 1.05 5.04 198.42
Huron FOB 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.80 4.79 188.57
Kent FOB 1.05 4.73 186.02 0.85 4.84 190.54
Lamb FOB 1.05 4.73 186.02 0.95 4.94 194.48
Mdsx FOB 1.10N/A N/A N/A 4.78 187.98 1.00 4.99 196.45
FOB SW Que 1.37 5.05 198.61N/A
Track 1.25 4.93 193.89N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A 1.24 1.29 1.10 5.09 200.38
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.39 1.23 5.22 205.50
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.20 1.30N/A N/A 4.88 191.92N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A 1.45 1.40 1.45 1.15 5.14 202.35
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.28 5.27 207.47
W O Feed 1.51 5.19 204.20
US Rep 1.79 5.47 215.15
Toledo El. -0.26 3.41 134.32 -0.26 3.73 146.75
MID SD CRN 0.72 1/2 4.401
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.42 1/2
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3158 down 0.0074
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.
JAN19 HI 8.97 1/2 NOV19 HI 9.48
LOW 8.83 3/4 LOW 9.33 1/4
CLOSE8.88 3/4 Up 5 1/4 CLOSE 9.36 3/4 Up 1
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+JAN19
CK Low 2.25 11.14 409.232.00 11.37 417.68
CK High 2.30 11.19 411.072.15 11.52 423.20
CK Average 2.29 -0.3911.18 410.762.09 -0.6311.46 421.11
Essex Cty 2.25 11.14 409.232.10 11.47 421.36
Mdsx Low 2.30 11.19 411.072.15 11.52 423.20
Mdsx High 2.34 11.23 412.542.15 11.52 423.20
Mdsx Average 2.32 -0.3711.21 411.812.15 -0.5911.52 423.20
Hensall 2.30 11.19 411.072.10 11.47 421.36
Bruce 2.30 11.19 411.072.10 11.47 421.36
Putnam 2.30 11.19 411.072.15 11.52 423.20
Burford 2.34 11.23 412.542.15 11.52 423.20
Port Perry 2.30 11.19 411.072.11 11.48 421.73
Norfolk 2.30 11.19 411.072.10 11.47 421.36
Palmerston 2.25 11.14 409.232.05 11.42 419.52
Varna 2.30 11.19 411.072.05 11.42 419.52
Trenton 2.20 11.09 407.402.05 11.42 419.52
Winchester 2.35 11.24 412.912.04 11.41 419.15
North Gower 2.60 11.49 422.092.35 11.72 430.54
Huron FOB 2.40 11.29 414.742.15 11.52 423.20
Kent FOB 2.45 11.34 416.582.10 11.47 421.36
Lambton FOB 2.40 11.29 414.742.20 11.57 425.03
Middlesex FOB2.43 2.50 2.37 2.30 11.32 415.852.31 11.68 429.07
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.75 11.64 427.60 N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.80 11.69 429.442.50 11.87 436.06
Prescott 2.96 11.85 435.322.62 11.99 440.47
Toledo El. -0.59 8.30 304.80-0.39 8.97 329.74
Exchange rate was 1.3158 down 0.0074
Chicago wheat closed narrowly mixed.
DEC18 HI 5.09 JUL19 HI 5.35 1/4
LOW 5.03 LOW 5.30 1/4
CLOSE 5.05 1/2 Up 2 1/2 CLOSE 5.31 3/4 Up 1 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC18 HI 5.79 3/4 SEP19 HI 6.04
LOW 5.74 1/2 LOW 5.99 1/4
CLOSE 5.74 3/4 Down 1 1/4 CLOSE 5.99 1/4 Down 1 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.14 1.33 1.14 0.63
CAD $/bu 6.19 6.39 6.19 6.38
CAD $/tonne 227.47 234.72 227.47 234.36
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.15 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
London 1.17 1.30 1.17 N/A 1.24 1.37 1.04 N/A
Hensall 1.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.00 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Bruce 1.10 1.30 1.10 0.60 1.00 1.30 0.95 0.65
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.24 N/A
Norwich 1.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.00 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.00 1.10 N/A N/A 1.20 0.95 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.00 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.15 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.15 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.15 0.95 0.55 N/A 1.10 1.05 N/A
Varna 1.30 1.40 1.10 N/A 1.05 1.30 0.95 N/A
Mitchell 1.15 1.20 1.15 N/A 1.20 1.30 1.00 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.20 1.00 0.50 N/A 1.26 1.21 0.40
W O Feed 1.86
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.79 N/A N/A N/A 1.79 N/A
Toledo El. 5.01US 6.59CA 5.17US 6.78CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.20 1.26 1.20 0.49
CAD $/bu 6.52 6.58 6.52 6.48
CAD $/tonne 239.41 241.82 239.41 238.20
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 493.18
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 145.00
----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for November 14, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, November 14, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.66 ↓ 06 cents
Soybeans CBOT Jan 8.83 ↑ 03 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.04 ↓ 06 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.76 ↓ 05 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 4.81 ↓ 20 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.89 ↑ 02 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7655 ↑ 0.20 points
Corn:
As suggested in last week’s commentary, corn challenged our price point at the $3.80 level, and was stopped once again by the resistance line in the sand. It looks as though we are about to do more backpedaling towards the $3.50-$3.60 support level on the December contract. A break above the tough resistance is at $3.80 is needed to further our pattern and clear the way for a shot at the $4 level on the front month futures. In the short time frame, I feel we are more likely to see $3.50 rather than $4.
Initial support is still seen at the $3.50-$3.60 level on December. Indicators are mixed, with daily signals being positive while the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
It was a quiet week, with the soybeans still within the confines of the $8-$9 box. The November contract goes off the board today, which allows the January contract to become the lead month futures contract. The expiry of November futures could alleviate some downward pressure on futures prices after another attempt at the $9-resistance, as the January contract is just 20 cents from that area.
The key to the future price movement in the soybeans is the ability to break out of the box. Once that is completed, I feel we have a better idea of whether we are heading to $9.50 or $7.50 in the coming months. Until such time, we have no indication on the forward pricing of the spring markets.
Short term indicators are positive, while the primary trend remains down. The $8-$9 box remains intact and if we were to break to the upside, there is tough resistance around the $9.50 level as well.
Wheat:
Wheat rallied to the $5.21 level last week, hitting our predicted resistance in the $5.25 area on the December contract. We quickly backed off, and we are now once again probing the $5 support level. We still like the $4.85-$5 support, and we still need a close above the $5.25 on December to continue our move towards the next resistance level at $5.50.
Indicators are still positive, and the primary trend is neutral to bullish.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, November 14, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $227.61/MT ($6.19/bu), HRW @ $234.90/MT ($6.39/bu),
HRS @ $236.60/MT ($6.44/bu), SRW @ $227.61/MT ($6.19/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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