[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Mar 22 15:19:11 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, March 22
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2887 down 0.0030
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAY18 HI 3.77 1/2 DEC18 HI 3.99 1/2
LOW 3.74 LOW 3.96
CLOSE3.76 Up 1 CLOSE 3.98 Up 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY18+JUL18+JUL18
CK Low 0.70 4.46 175.58 0.70 4.68 184.24
CK High 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.80 4.78 188.18
CK Avg 0.75 -0.26 4.51 177.55 0.75 -0.31 4.73 186.21
Essex Cty 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.75 4.73 186.21
Mdsx Low 0.70 4.46 175.58 0.70 4.68 184.24
Mdsx High 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.75 4.73 186.21
Mdsx Avg 0.75 -0.26 4.51 177.55 0.73 -0.33 4.71 185.23
Hensall 0.78 4.54 178.54 0.74 4.72 185.62
Bruce 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.75 4.73 186.21
Putnam 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.75 4.73 186.21
Burford 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.75 4.73 186.21
Port Perry 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.80 4.78 188.18
Norfolk 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.80 4.78 188.18
Palmerston 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.75 4.73 186.21
Varna 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.75 4.73 186.21
Trenton 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.75 4.73 186.21
Winchester 1.00 4.76 187.39 1.05 5.03 198.02
North Gower 0.99 4.75 187.00 1.03 5.01 197.23
Huron FOB 0.95 4.71 185.42 0.80 4.78 188.18
Kent FOB 0.95 4.71 185.42 0.82 4.80 188.97
Lamb FOB 1.00 4.76 187.39 0.80 4.78 188.18
Mdsx FOB 0.80 0.80 0.80N/A 4.56 179.52 0.75 4.73 186.21
FOB SW Que 1.34 5.10 200.78 1.07 5.05 198.81
Track 1.15 4.91 193.30N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.89 4.87 191.72
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.15 1.15 1.00 4.98 196.05
Sarn-Eth 1.00 1.00 1.00N/A 4.76 187.39N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.20N/A 0.95 4.93 194.09
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 5.08 199.99
W O Feed 1.36 5.12 201.41
US Rep 1.46 5.22 205.50
Toledo El. -0.09 3.67 144.47 -0.26 3.72 146.54
MID SD CRN 0.75 4.51
HI SD CRN 0.80 4.561
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2887 down 0.0030
Chicago soybeans closed narrowly mixed.
MAY18 HI 10.35 1/2 NOV18 HI 10.29 3/4
LOW 10.22 1/4 LOW 10.18 3/4
CLOSE10.29 3/4 Unchanged CLOSE 10.26 3/4 Up 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+MAY1+JUL18
CK Low 2.10 12.40 455.532.15 12.42 456.27
CK High 2.25 12.55 461.042.30 12.57 461.78
CK Average 2.20 -0.6012.50 459.202.22 -0.5812.49 458.90
Essex Cty 2.25 12.55 461.042.20 12.47 458.10
Mdsx Low 2.10 12.40 455.532.18 12.45 457.37
Mdsx High 2.25 12.55 461.042.30 12.57 461.78
Mdsx Average 2.18 -0.6212.47 458.292.24 -0.5612.51 459.57
Hensall 2.20 12.50 459.202.25 12.52 459.94
Bruce 2.25 12.55 461.042.30 12.57 461.78
Putnam 2.35 12.65 464.722.40 12.67 465.45
Burford 2.17 12.47 458.102.25 12.52 459.94
Port Perry 2.10 12.40 455.532.18 12.45 457.37
Norfolk 2.20 12.50 459.202.25 12.52 459.94
Palmerston 2.15 12.45 457.372.20 12.47 458.10
Varna 2.25 12.55 461.042.30 12.57 461.78
Trenton 2.20 12.50 459.202.20 12.47 458.10
Winchester 2.10 12.40 455.532.15 12.42 456.27
North Gower 2.22 12.52 459.942.18 12.45 457.37
Huron FOB 2.25 12.55 461.042.30 12.57 461.78
Kent FOB 2.30 12.60 462.882.20 12.47 458.10
Lambton FOB 2.25 12.55 461.042.40 12.67 465.45
Middlesex FOB2.14 2.34 2.42 2.42 12.44 457.002.29 12.56 461.41
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.65 12.92 474.64
Prescott 2.40 12.70 466.552.56 12.83 471.33
Toledo El. -0.31 9.99 367.00-0.39 9.88 363.06
Exchange rate was 1.2887 down 0.0030
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
MAY18 HI 4.59 3/4 JUL18 HI 4.75 1/4
LOW 4.51 1/4 LOW 4.67
CLOSE 4.55 3/4 Up 2 1/4 CLOSE 4.72 Up 2 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
MAY18 HI 5.94 3/4 SEP18 HI 6.10 1/2
LOW 5.87 LOW 6.04 1/2
CLOSE 5.93 Up 3 3/4 CLOSE 6.08 1/4 Up 1 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.25 1.19 0.99 0.36
CAD $/bu 5.81 5.74 5.55 6.29
CAD $/tonne 213.44 211.08 203.97 231.08
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
London 0.90 1.22 0.77 N/A 1.20 0.94 0.81 N/A
Hensall 1.10 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.90 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Bruce 1.10 1.10 0.90 0.25 1.15 1.00 0.95 0.50
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.83 N/A
Norwich 1.10 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.90 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 0.95 N/A N/A 1.00 1.00 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.10 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.90 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.00 0.90 0.25 N/A 1.00 1.00 0.50
Varna 1.25 1.20 0.95 N/A 1.20 1.10 1.00 N/A
Mitchell 1.10 1.10 0.85 N/A 1.15 1.00 0.90 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.01 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.09 0.95 0.26 N/A 1.22 1.16 0.30
W O Feed 1.52
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.44 N/A N/A N/A 1.36 N/A
Toledo El. 4.61US 5.94CA 4.67US 6.02CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.23 1.11 1.04 0.34
CAD $/bu 5.95 5.83 5.76 6.42
CAD $/tonne 218.77 214.04 211.67 235.94
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 531.32
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 225.00 - 230.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for March 21, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.75 ↓ 13 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 10.30 ↓ 02 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.53 ↓ 25 cents
Wheat Minn. May 5.90 ↓ 32 cents
Wheat Kansas May 4.84 ↓ 40 cents
Chicago Oats May 2.31 ↓ 24 cents
Canadian $ Mar .7768 ↑ 0.25 points
Corn:
My last report suggested that we would head towards the $4 level on the Chicago May contract after breaking the four-year-old downtrend line at the $3.75 level based on the May futures. We reached $3.96 and have since pulled back to test the breakout at the $3.75 level. The speed of this correction suggests that we may dip below the intermediate trend line which would signal a neutralized intermediate trend instead of a bullish tone going forward for the next few weeks.
Initial support is still at $3.70 on the May contract while overhead resistance is still at $4 also on the May contract. Short term indicators are positive but the primary trend, is still down.
Soybeans:
For those of you who follow my commentary, I was looking for stiff resistance on the May contract at the $10.80 level and the charts did not fail me. At this point in the analysis, we should expect to see once again the $10 level challenged for solid support on the May contract.
The $10.80 level on the lead month is coincident with the six-year-old down trend line and it was expected to offer up stiff resistance. The big question now is whether or not we continue all the way back to the $9.50 level to retest the support or do we try once again from the $10 level on the May futures contract.
Initial support is seen on the May charts at the $10 - $10.20 level, while our overhead resistance level is still at the $10.80 level.
Indicators are mixed as the short term indicators are now negative, the intermediate trend is neutral, all while the primary trend is down.
Wheat:
Based on the May Chicago wheat contract we did see an assault on the primary trend line at the $5.08 level last week before it failed. As mentioned many times, the primary trend line is a good spot to sell some of your product when the need is there and we did reach it last week.
Meanwhile, the intermediate down trend line turned neutral many months ago on the weekly chart, while the $5.10 - $5.25 price point is necessary to end the bear market on the primary trend.
The reversal from the $5.08 level was quite severe and for that reason I would expect continued weakness even though we may have a bounce from the $4.40 level on the May contract.
Daily indicators are now bearish while the intermediate trend is still neutral, but the primary trend is still down.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, March 21, are as follows:
SWW @ $219.96 ($5.90/bu), HRW @ $212.22/MT ($5.78/bu),
HRS @ $235.17/MT ($6.40/bu), SRW @ $209.86/MT ($5.71/bu).
----
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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