[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Mar 1 15:27:37 EST 2018


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, March 1
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2847 up 0.0021
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.

      MAY18   HI 3.86  1/2                    DEC18    HI 4.05
             LOW 3.79  1/2                            LOW 3.98  3/4
            CLOSE3.86  1/4  Up 4 1/4                CLOSE 4.04  3/4  Up 3 1/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +MAY18+JUL18+JUL18
CK Low       0.60                        4.46 175.68  0.65         4.70 184.93
CK High      0.70                        4.56 179.62  0.75         4.80 188.87
CK Avg       0.63                  -0.36 4.50 176.99  0.68 -0.36   4.72 185.92
Essex Cty    0.65                        4.51 177.65  0.65         4.70 184.93
Mdsx Low     0.60                        4.46 175.68  0.65         4.70 184.93
Mdsx High    0.65                        4.51 177.65  0.65         4.70 184.93
Mdsx Avg     0.63                  -0.37 4.49 176.67  0.65 -0.38   4.70 184.93
Hensall      0.68                        4.54 178.63  0.68         4.72 185.92
Bruce        0.65                        4.51 177.65  0.65         4.70 184.93
Putnam       0.65                        4.51 177.65  0.65         4.70 184.93
Burford      0.70                        4.56 179.62  0.65         4.70 184.93
Port Perry   0.70                        4.56 179.62  0.65         4.70 184.93
Norfolk      0.70                        4.56 179.62  0.70         4.75 186.90
Palmerston   0.65                        4.51 177.65  0.65         4.70 184.93
Varna        0.70                        4.56 179.62  0.70         4.75 186.90
Trenton      0.75                        4.61 181.59  0.75         4.80 188.87
Winchester   0.98                        4.84 190.64  1.03         5.08 199.89
North Gower  0.96                        4.82 189.85  0.94         4.99 196.35
Huron FOB    0.92                        4.78 188.28  0.75         4.80 188.87
Kent FOB     0.92                        4.78 188.28  0.75         4.80 188.87
Lamb FOB     1.00                        4.86 191.43  0.70         4.75 186.90
Mdsx FOB     0.70  0.70N/A   N/A         4.56 179.62  0.70         4.75 186.90
FOB SW Que   1.28                        5.14 202.45  1.09         5.14 202.25
Track        1.10                        4.96 195.36N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A     1.20N/A                      1.01         5.06 199.10
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A     1.10  1.10                   N/A
Sarn-Eth     1.00N/A   N/A   N/A         4.86 191.43N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.15N/A                      0.95         5.00 196.74
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.10         5.15 202.65
W O Feed     1.23                        5.09 200.40

US Rep       1.39                        5.25 206.78
Toledo El.  -0.09                        3.77 148.52 -0.26         3.79 149.25


MID SD CRN   0.65 1                      4.51 1/4
HI SD CRN    0.70                        4.56 1/4
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.2847 up 0.0021
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.

       MAY18   HI 10.68  3/4          NOV18    HI 10.38
              LOW 10.50  3/4                  LOW 10.27
             CLOSE10.68   Up 12 1/2         CLOSE 10.38   Up 5 3/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +MAY1+MAY1+JUL18
CK Low       2.00                     12.68 465.912.05      12.43 456.72
CK High      2.10                     12.78 469.582.20      12.58 462.24
CK Average   2.08                -0.7512.76 468.972.14 -0.6212.52 459.97
Essex Cty    2.05                     12.73 467.752.05      12.43 456.72
Mdsx Low     2.10                     12.78 469.582.13      12.51 459.66
Mdsx High    2.10                     12.78 469.582.20      12.58 462.24
Mdsx Average 2.10                -0.7312.78 469.582.17 -0.6012.55 460.95
Hensall      2.10                     12.78 469.582.18      12.56 461.32
Bruce        2.10                     12.78 469.582.20      12.58 462.24
Putnam       2.10                     12.78 469.582.20      12.58 462.24
Burford      2.17                     12.85 472.162.20      12.58 462.24
Port Perry   2.10                     12.78 469.582.13      12.51 459.66
Norfolk      2.10                     12.78 469.582.20      12.58 462.24
Palmerston   2.05                     12.73 467.752.10      12.48 458.56
Varna        2.10                     12.78 469.582.15      12.53 460.40
Trenton      2.15                     12.83 471.422.10      12.48 458.56
Winchester   2.30                     12.98 476.932.10      12.48 458.56
North Gower  2.04                     12.72 467.382.06      12.44 457.09
Huron FOB    2.20                     12.88 473.262.25      12.63 464.07
Kent FOB     2.30                     12.98 476.932.15      12.53 460.40
Lambton FOB  2.30                     12.98 476.932.25      12.63 464.07
Middlesex FOB2.23 2.36 2.40 2.40      12.91 474.362.24      12.62 463.71


TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                 2.65      13.03 478.77
Prescott     2.32                     13.00 477.672.54      12.92 474.73

Toledo El.   -0.31                    10.37 381.09-0.38     10.00 367.27


Exchange rate was 1.2847 up 0.0021
Chicago wheat closed sharply higher.
MAY18      HI         5.18              JUL18   HI         5.31
           LOW    4.89  1/2                     LOW        5.03
           CLOSE  5.15  1/2  Up 20 1/2          CLOSE   5.28  1/2  Up 21 1/4

Minni wheat closed moderately higher to higher.
MAY18      HI         6.36              SEP18   HI         6.47
           LOW    6.19  1/2                     LOW     6.35  3/4
           CLOSE  6.34  3/4  Up 13              CLOSE   6.46  1/2  Up 8 3/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.40          1.34            1.27          0.46
CAD $/bu              6.56          6.49            6.43          6.81
CAD $/tonne         240.98        238.62          236.26        250.06


Direct MarkHarvest 2017                 Harvest 2018
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.90    N/A
London      1.04    1.30   0.85    N/A    1.29    1.03   0.90    N/A
Hensall     1.00    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.05    N/A    0.90    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.00    N/A
Bruce       1.00    1.00   0.85   0.15    1.05    0.90   0.90   0.35
Essex        N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.86    N/A
Norwich     1.00    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.05    N/A    0.90    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     0.85   0.90    N/A
Kent Bridge 1.00    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.05    N/A    0.90    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.90    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.95    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.90    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.95    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.80   0.80    N/A    N/A     0.75   0.85   0.35
Varna       1.15    1.00   0.85    N/A    1.10    0.90   0.90    N/A
Mitchell    1.00    1.00   0.85    N/A    1.05    0.90   0.90    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   1.26    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.27   1.21   0.26    N/A     1.30   1.23   0.38
W O Feed                   1.37


PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.47    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.49    N/A

Toledo El. 5.08US         6.52CA         5.24US         6.71CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.36          1.23            1.17          0.41
CAD $/bu              6.65          6.52            6.46          6.88
CAD $/tonne         244.27        239.56          237.20        252.75

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             550.28
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      220.00 - 245.00

---


Ontario Grain Market Commentary for February 28, 2018

By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Wednesday, February 28, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.74 ↑ 08 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 10.55 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.95 ↑ 35 cents
Wheat Minn. May 6.22 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat Kansas May 5.22 ↑ 40 cents
Chicago Oats May 2.70 ↑ 10 cents
Canadian $ Mar .7290 ↓ 1.00 points

Corn:
To repeat last week’s commentary, we are at the weekly trend line and could encounter stiff resistance here before a possible pullback before we punch through this area. Of course we may also not see the pull-back, in which case we could see a short covering rally from the short positions.
If the pull back is implemented, I would look for a re-test of the $3.60 - $3.70 support level, based on the May contract. Even though we may negate the $3.85 (May) trend-line on a close, this would not reverse the actual trend but rather neutralize it as we saw in the wheat. Before I am confident enough to admit a reversal of the main trend, I would need to see a close above $4 on the lead month contract (March). Meanwhile, we are currently trading at $3.85 on the May contract and are flirting with the seven- year-old downtrend being broken.
 Initial support is now at $3.60 on the May contract while overhead resistance is at $3.85 also on the May contract. The primary trend is still down.

Soybeans:
The May soybean chart, which has given us two red buy signals, is behaving as expected. The four-year-old down trend line has been negated but the main trend line is still intact. This is enough to turn this weekly trend neutral. The weekly chart shows a clear break of the down trend line, and the momentum is starting to build as we push through the tough resistance from the main trend line at $10.75 - $11. Support is seen on the May charts at the $10 level while our overhead resistance level is still at the $10.75 - $11 level.
Short term indicators are positive and the primary trend is neutral. A close above $11 would be very positive and turn our bear market into a possible bullish pattern for an end of the six-year-old bear market.

Wheat:
The May contract continues to impress and even though we have been neutralized from the seven-year-old bear market for some time, we still have a little more work before we can call this a bull market. Going forward we are still working off the red buy signal received back on January 2 and we should continue to move higher into the spring.
We will move our support line on the May chart back to the $4.50 level. Our overhead resistance based on May of the $5 - $5.20 level was met this week as we reached a high of $5  on the May contract before settling back at $4.95. This is the main trendline and there is a very real possibility we could get a correction before we challenge this one again. The pullback is not mandatory but it is more common. However, if we see a strong move through this $5.10 area on a close, I would expect that we could see a larger short covering rally before the pull back to this area, which will then be viewed as the new support zone.
Indicators are positive.  Both daily and weekly indicators are now bullish, and our primary trend is neutral.

Cash Grain  prices as of the close, February 28, are as follows:
SWW @ $231.12 ($6.29/bu), HRW @ $228.76/MT ($6.23/bu),
----

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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