[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jun 21 15:18:05 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, June 21
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3281 down 0.0013
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
JUL18 HI 3.59 DEC18 HI 3.80 1/2
LOW 3.49 1/4 LOW 3.71
CLOSE3.57 Up 2 3/4 CLOSE 3.78 1/4 Up 2 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP18+SEP18+DEC18
CK Low 0.85 4.42 174.01 0.80 4.58 180.41
CK High 1.00 4.57 179.91 0.90 4.68 184.34
CK Avg 0.94 -0.17 4.51 177.62 0.83 -0.31 4.61 181.39
Essex Cty 0.95 4.52 177.94 0.80 4.58 180.41
Mdsx Low 0.95 4.52 177.94 0.80 4.58 180.41
Mdsx High 0.95 4.52 177.94 0.80 4.58 180.41
Mdsx Avg 0.95 -0.17 4.52 177.94 0.80 -0.33 4.58 180.41
Hensall 0.95 4.52 177.94 0.80 4.58 180.41
Bruce 0.90 4.47 175.98 0.75 4.53 178.44
Putnam 0.90 4.47 175.98 0.75 4.53 178.44
Burford 0.95 4.52 177.94 0.80 4.58 180.41
Port Perry 0.95 4.52 177.94 0.85 4.63 182.37
Norfolk 0.95 4.52 177.94 0.80 4.58 180.41
Palmerston 1.00 4.57 179.91 0.85 4.63 182.37
Varna 0.95 4.52 177.94 0.80 4.58 180.41
Trenton 0.90 4.47 175.98 0.90 4.68 184.34
Winchester 1.11 4.68 184.24 1.16 4.94 194.58
North Gower 1.09 4.66 183.46 1.15 4.93 194.18
Huron FOB 1.10 4.67 183.85 0.85 4.63 182.37
Kent FOB 1.10 4.67 183.85 0.85 4.63 182.37
Lamb FOB 1.10 4.67 183.85 0.85 4.63 182.37
Mdsx FOB 0.95 0.95N/A N/A 4.52 177.94 0.85 4.63 182.37
FOB SW Que 1.68 5.25 206.68N/A
Track 1.30 4.87 191.72N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.06 4.84 190.64
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.13 4.91 193.40
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.30 1.30 1.00 4.78 188.28
Sarn-Eth 1.15 1.20 1.25N/A 4.72 185.82N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.35 1.35 1.10 4.88 192.22
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.20 4.98 196.15
W O Feed 1.49 5.06 199.36
US Rep 1.54 5.11 201.17
Toledo El. 0.00 3.57 140.54 -0.27 3.52 138.45
MID SD CRN 0.85 4.63 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.90 4.68 1/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3281 down 0.0013
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
JUL18 HI 8.91 1/4 NOV18 HI 9.12 1/2
LOW 8.78 1/4 LOW 8.99 1/4
CLOSE8.80 1/2 Down 9 CLOSE 9.01 1/2 Down 9
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+AUG1+NOV18
CK Low 2.50 11.31 415.392.49 11.51 422.74
CK High 2.60 11.41 419.062.60 11.62 426.78
CK Average 2.55 -0.2511.36 417.292.53 -0.3211.55 424.27
Essex Cty 2.50 11.31 415.392.45 11.47 421.27
Mdsx Low 2.51 11.32 415.762.49 11.51 422.74
Mdsx High 2.60 11.41 419.062.70 11.72 430.45
Mdsx Average 2.56 -0.2511.36 417.412.60 -0.2711.61 426.59
Hensall 2.58 11.38 418.142.70 11.72 430.45
Bruce 2.50 11.31 415.392.45 11.47 421.27
Putnam 2.45 11.26 413.552.40 11.42 419.43
Burford 2.58 11.39 418.332.56 11.58 425.31
Port Perry 2.48 11.29 414.652.46 11.48 421.63
Norfolk 2.60 11.41 419.062.70 11.72 430.45
Palmerston 2.55 11.36 417.222.55 11.57 424.94
Varna 2.55 11.36 417.222.70 11.72 430.45
Trenton 2.55 11.36 417.222.60 11.62 426.78
Winchester 2.30 11.11 408.042.38 11.40 418.69
North Gower 2.40 11.21 411.712.40 11.42 419.43
Huron FOB 2.65 11.46 420.902.80 11.82 434.13
Kent FOB 2.65 11.46 420.902.60 11.62 426.78
Lambton FOB 2.65 11.46 420.902.60 11.62 426.78
Middlesex FOB2.75 2.81 2.75 N/A 11.56 424.572.72 11.74 431.19
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.97 11.78 432.662.70 11.72 430.45
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 3.00 12.02 441.48
Prescott 2.34 11.15 409.512.93 11.95 438.90
Toledo El. -0.20 8.61 316.21-0.40 8.62 316.60
Exchange rate was 1.3281 down 0.0013
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
JUL18 HI 4.98 3/4 JUL18 HI 4.98 3/4
LOW 4.82 1/4 LOW 4.82 1/4
CLOSE 4.95 1/4 Up 7 CLOSE 4.95 1/4 Up 7
Minni wheat closed steady to slightly higher.
JUL18 HI 5.61 1/4 SEP18 HI 5.72 3/4
LOW 5.52 LOW 5.62 1/4
CLOSE 5.52 3/4 Unchanged CLOSE 5.64 3/4 Up 1 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.52 1.45 1.25 0.35
CAD $/bu 6.47 6.40 6.21 5.88
CAD $/tonne 237.78 235.34 228.02 216.06
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 1.15 N/A
London 1.11 1.45 1.11 N/A 1.24 1.24 1.11 N/A
Hensall 1.15 N/A 1.10 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.15 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Bruce 1.15 1.15 1.10 N/A 1.20 1.30 1.15 0.55
Essex N/A N/A 0.95 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Norwich 1.15 N/A 1.10 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.15 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A 1.15 1.15 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.15 N/A 1.10 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.15 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.00 1.00 0.35 N/A 1.10 1.05 0.55
Varna 1.35 1.25 1.05 N/A 1.30 1.30 1.10 N/A
Mitchell 1.15 1.15 1.10 N/A 1.20 1.30 1.15 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.68 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.24 1.04 0.16 N/A 1.51 1.37 0.30
W O Feed 1.58
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.89 N/A N/A N/A 1.89 N/A
Toledo El. 5.05US 6.71CA 5.05US 6.71CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.49 1.56 1.47 0.39
CAD $/bu 6.44 6.51 6.42 6.04
CAD $/tonne 236.80 239.24 235.82 221.92
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 511.26
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 250.00 - 260.00
----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for June 20, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, June 20, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 3.55 ↓ 20 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 8.90 ↓ 46 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.88 ↓ 29 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.52 ↓ 32 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.88 ↓ 52 cents
Chicago Oats July 2.39 ↑ 07 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7530 ↓ 1.41 points
Corn:
Rough week in the grain markets as we had a price rout that saw many support levels annihilated. The July corn contract hit $3.40 and is now trading 15 cents higher at the $3.55 level. This has done damage to the short term charts but not the long term charts. Are we seeing a washout before a major trend reversal? Possibly. But it will take time before we see the volatility and prices to stabilize. We did receive a red sell signal on the weekly chart but we are still positive on the primary or monthly charts.
Short term indicators are negative but oversold. Support is now seen at $3.25 on the weekly charts.
Current overhead resistance is still seen at the $3.75 - $4 level on July, while support is seen at the $3.25 - $3.35 level based on the lead month futures contract.
Soybeans:
Soybeans acted as expected. We saw a hard break of more than $1 in the month of June. The critical $10.80 major overhead resistance level failed once again and prices started a massive correction. Our last commentary suggested that $8.50 was a very real possibility and a week later, here we are. There are, however, a couple of positive points with the price drop. The first one is that the two-year-old bottom price of $8.40 held up very nicely and the prices rebounded within hours. The second positive point is that indicators are oversold and a rebound is expected from these levels even if only for a short time.
Short term indicators are negative, while the intermediate trend, as indicated on the weekly chart, is neutral to mildly bullish. The primary trend needs to see a close above the $10.80 level on the lead month futures contract to reverse the six-year-old bear market in soybeans. Until we have a convincing close above that level, the primary trend remains down.
Wheat:
The Chicago wheat fared better than the other grains after the Trump words of war over tariffs with China. The wheat charts still remain relatively neutral to mildly bullish. We did get below our initial $4.80 support line but it did not tarry and quickly rebounded. We did however, receive a short term red sell signal which is concerning for more downside.
Going forward we should see more volatility and news from the Trump camp with regards to further pressure with talks of sanctions. If this war of words continues, we could expect to see further sell-offs and increased volatility. In the end, I still feel we will see a compromise and the grains should quickly contain losses and possibly rebound after the dust settles. Of course this is all happening as we approach harvest which in itself could produce its own issues.
Solid support is seen at a major support level near the $4.40 - $4.50 based on the lead month contract.
Short term indicators are negative while the primary trend is still mildly bullish.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, June 20, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $233.61/MT ($6.36/bu), HRW @ $236.06/MT ($6.42/bu),
HRS @ $221.40/MT ($6.03/bu), SRW @ $232.64/MT ($6.33/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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