[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jul 26 15:23:43 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, July 26
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3062 up 0.0025
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
SEP18 HI 3.65 3/4 DEC18 HI 3.79 3/4
LOW 3.60 1/4 LOW 3.74 1/4
CLOSE3.61 1/2 Up 2 1/4 CLOSE 3.75 3/4 Up 2 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP18+DEC18+DEC18
CK Low 1.00 4.62 181.68 0.90 4.66 183.36
CK High 1.15 4.77 187.59 0.90 4.66 183.36
CK Avg 1.12 0.01 4.73 186.28 0.90 -0.18 4.66 183.36
Essex Cty 1.15 4.77 187.59 0.90 4.66 183.36
Mdsx Low 1.10 4.72 185.62 0.90 4.66 183.36
Mdsx High 1.15 4.77 187.59 0.95 4.71 185.33
Mdsx Avg 1.13 0.01 4.74 186.61 0.93 -0.16 4.68 184.34
Hensall 1.15 4.77 187.59 0.95 4.71 185.33
Bruce 1.15 4.77 187.59 1.00 4.76 187.29
Putnam 1.10 4.72 185.62 0.90 4.66 183.36
Burford 1.10 4.72 185.62 0.90 4.66 183.36
Port Perry 1.10 4.72 185.62 0.90 4.66 183.36
Norfolk 1.15 4.77 187.59 0.90 4.66 183.36
Palmerston 1.00 4.62 181.68 0.90 4.66 183.36
Varna 1.10 4.72 185.62 0.95 4.71 185.33
Trenton 1.15 4.77 187.59 0.95 4.71 185.33
Winchester 1.20 4.82 189.56 1.15 4.91 193.20
North Gower 1.10 4.72 185.62 1.15 4.91 193.20
Huron FOB 1.35 4.97 195.46 0.95 4.71 185.33
Kent FOB 1.35 4.97 195.46 0.90 4.66 183.36
Lamb FOB 1.30 4.92 193.49 0.90 4.66 183.36
Mdsx FOB 1.00 1.00N/A N/A 4.62 181.68 0.90 4.66 183.36
FOB SW Que 1.75 5.37 211.21N/A
Track 1.48 5.09 200.38N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.41 1.08 4.84 190.44
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.50 1.55 1.10 4.86 191.23
Sarn-Eth 1.30 1.35 1.30N/A 4.92 193.49 1.10 4.86 191.23
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.55 1.15 4.91 193.20
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35* 5.11 201.07
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.48 1.25 5.01 197.14
W O Feed 1.66 5.28 207.67
US Rep 1.66 5.28 207.67
Toledo El. -0.04 3.58 140.77 -0.26 3.50 137.68
MID SD CRN 0.90 4.65 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.90 4.65 3/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3062 up 0.0025
Chicago soybeans closed narrowly mixed.
AUG18 HI 8.81 NOV18 HI 8.96
LOW 8.58 1/4 LOW 8.73 1/4
CLOSE8.61 1/4 Up 1/2 CLOSE 8.76 Up 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+AUG1+NOV18
CK Low 2.60 11.21 411.992.55 11.31 415.57
CK High 2.75 11.36 417.502.65 11.41 419.25
CK Average 2.70 0.05 11.31 415.602.60 -0.0311.36 417.35
Essex Cty 2.85 11.46 421.172.65 11.41 419.25
Mdsx Low 2.70 11.31 415.662.60 11.36 417.41
Mdsx High 2.72 11.33 416.402.62 11.38 418.14
Mdsx Average 2.71 0.06 11.32 416.032.61 -0.0211.37 417.78
Hensall 2.70 11.31 415.662.60 11.36 417.41
Bruce 2.70 11.31 415.662.60 11.36 417.41
Putnam 2.70 11.31 415.662.60 11.36 417.41
Burford 2.76 11.37 417.872.66 11.42 419.61
Port Perry 2.69 11.30 415.302.59 11.35 417.04
Norfolk 2.75 11.36 417.502.65 11.41 419.25
Palmerston 2.60 11.21 411.992.60 11.36 417.41
Varna 2.70 11.31 415.662.60 11.36 417.41
Trenton 2.65 11.26 413.832.60 11.36 417.41
Winchester 2.66 11.27 414.192.56 11.32 415.94
North Gower 2.45 11.06 406.482.42 11.18 410.79
Huron FOB 2.80 11.41 419.342.70 11.46 421.08
Kent FOB 2.95 11.56 424.852.65 11.41 419.25
Lambton FOB 2.85 11.46 421.172.75 11.51 422.92
Middlesex FOB2.63 2.57 2.57 N/A 11.24 413.092.79 11.55 424.39
PROCESSORS
Windsor 3.23 11.84 435.143.08 11.84 435.05
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.90 11.66 428.43
Prescott 2.02 10.63 390.682.78 11.54 424.02
Toledo El. 0.10 8.72 320.29-0.39 8.37 307.53
Exchange rate was 1.3062 up 0.0025
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
SEP18 HI 5.53 3/4 JUL19 HI 5.90
LOW 5.32 LOW 5.74
CLOSE 5.36 1/2 Down 6 1/4 CLOSE 5.76 1/2 Down 7 3/4
Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
SEP18 HI 6.11 3/4 SEP19 HI 6.45
LOW 5.82 1/2 LOW 6.27 3/4
CLOSE 5.87 3/4 Up 1/2 CLOSE 6.30 1/2 Down 2 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.25 1.45 1.38 0.69
CAD $/bu 6.62 6.81 6.75 6.57
CAD $/tonne 243.09 250.29 247.89 241.29
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
London 1.22 1.42 1.09 N/A 1.38 1.32 1.12 N/A
Hensall 1.10 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.00 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Bruce 1.10 1.20 1.05 0.55 1.15 1.20 1.00 0.50
Essex N/A N/A 1.09 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Norwich 1.10 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.00 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.05 1.05 N/A N/A 1.05 1.05 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.10 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.00 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.10 1.00 0.55 N/A 1.10 0.95 N/A
Varna 1.25 1.25 1.05 N/A 1.10 1.20 1.00 N/A
Mitchell 1.10 1.20 1.05 N/A 1.15 1.20 1.00 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.84 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.40 1.35 0.60 N/A 1.36 1.36 0.50
W O Feed 1.60
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.90 N/A N/A N/A 1.87 N/A
Toledo El. 5.44US 7.10CA 5.62US 7.31CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.28 1.35 1.35 0.53
CAD $/bu 7.05 7.11 7.11 6.84
CAD $/tonne 258.90 261.29 261.29 251.25
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 523.17
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00 - 200.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for July 25, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, July 25, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.59 ↑ 12 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 8.66 ↑ 18 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 5.43 ↑ 48 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.87 ↑ 49 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 5.41 ↑ 53 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.32 ↓ 02 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7668 ↑ 0.68 points
Corn:
The week was good for corn prices as the $3.35 support line held very nicely and it looks like we are now in a rebound mode and our expected bounce in prices is underway from the oversold condition of the last couple of weeks. The next trick is to know the point at which the rebound will run out of steam. Technically, we are hoping for at least $3.70 and possibly $3.80 before the September contract expires.
Current overhead resistance is still seen at $3.70 - $3.80 and looking at the weekly chart, there is a very good chance that if the recent $3.30 level holds on a retest, it could prove to be the bottom of the market for 2018.
Support is still seen at the $3.30 level, and below there, we have nothing until we challenge the $3 mark.
Indicators are negative and the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
Once again the September soybean futures continue to find support in the $8.40 price range but only after slipping to the $8.20 area for a couple of sessions. As of July 25, we are 45 cents higher on the close at the $8.66 level on September and well on our way to the bounce that we eagerly were awaiting.
Our next target is a retest of the $9 area on the September futures from where we fell off the cliff. If we can manage to get back into the $9 - $10 comfort range before the September futures expire, I feel the worst will be behind us.
I have been expecting the $8.50 level in the soybeans for many months, as the commentaries can attest, but now that we have fulfilled that target, I feel the worst could be over and this could turn out to be the beginning of a long term market reversal when looking in the rear view mirror come 2019. If prices were to fail on a retest of the $8.40 level, we could see a fall of at least 50 cents to a dollar lower, testing a 2008 low of $7.75.
Immediate overhead resistance is at the $8.75 - $9 level while good support is seen at the $8.30 level based on the September futures. The primary trend remains down.
Wheat:
Wheat continues to dominate as this week recorded another 50 cent gain in the futures prices at the CBOT. We received yet another buy signal on wheat this week and the technicals look as though we could see higher prices in the weeks ahead. The wave count suggests a possible test of the $5.80 - $6 futures price before the expiry of the September futures contract. Of course this is just the projection.
Support is now seen at $5 while overhead resistance is pegged at the $5.50 - $5.70 area.
Short and intermediate term indicators are now positive while the primary trend is neutral, and it is still above the 10-year-old downtrend line.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, July25, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $247.96/MT ($6.75/bu), HRW @ $255.14/MT ($6.94/bu),
HRS @ $240.31/MT ($6.54/bu), SRW @ $252.75/MT ($6.88/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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