[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Aug 1 15:37:41 EDT 2018


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, August 1
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2983 down 0.0006
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.

      SEP18   HI 3.73                         DEC18    HI 3.87  1/4
             LOW 3.64                                 LOW 3.78  1/4
            CLOSE3.65   Down 7 1/4                  CLOSE 3.79  1/2  Down 7

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC18+DEC18+DEC18
CK Low       1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.90         4.70 184.83
CK High      1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.95         4.75 186.80
CK Avg       1.15                   0.05 4.80 188.97  0.92 -0.15   4.71 185.49
Essex Cty    1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.95         4.75 186.80
Mdsx Low     1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.90         4.70 184.83
Mdsx High    1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.95         4.75 186.80
Mdsx Avg     1.15                   0.05 4.80 188.97  0.93 -0.14   4.72 185.82
Hensall      1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.95         4.75 186.80
Bruce        1.15                        4.80 188.97  1.00         4.80 188.77
Putnam       1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.90         4.70 184.83
Burford      1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.90         4.70 184.83
Port Perry   1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.90         4.70 184.83
Norfolk      1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.95         4.75 186.80
Palmerston   1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.90         4.70 184.83
Varna        1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.95         4.75 186.80
Trenton      1.15                        4.80 188.97  0.95         4.75 186.80
Winchester   1.15                        4.80 188.97  1.15         4.95 194.68
North Gower  1.15                        4.80 188.97  1.15         4.95 194.68
Huron FOB    1.40                        5.05 198.81  1.00         4.80 188.77
Kent FOB     1.35                        5.00 196.84  0.95         4.75 186.80
Lamb FOB     1.35                        5.00 196.84  0.95         4.75 186.80
Mdsx FOB     1.30  1.35  1.30N/A         4.95 194.87  0.90         4.70 184.83
FOB SW Que   1.68                        5.33 209.83N/A
Track        1.53                        5.18 203.73N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A     1.56  1.15                   1.15         4.95 194.68
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A    1.50  1.55  1.10                   1.10         4.90 192.71
Sarn-Eth     1.35  1.30N/A     1.10      5.00 196.84  1.10         4.90 192.71
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.60  1.15                   1.15         4.95 194.68
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    1.35*          5.15 202.55
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.48  1.25                   1.25         5.05 198.61
W O Feed     1.66                        5.31 209.20

US Rep       1.62                        5.27 207.47
Toledo El.  -0.04                        3.61 142.16 -0.26         3.54 139.22


MID SD CRN                                            0.92   1/2   4.72
HI SD CRN                                             0.95         4.74 1/2
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.2983 down 0.0006
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.

       NOV18   HI 9.15                NOV18    HI 9.15
              LOW 8.99                        LOW 8.99
             CLOSE9.01  3/4  Down 17 1/4    CLOSE 9.01  3/4  Down 17 1/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+NOV1+NOV18
CK Low       2.50                     11.52 423.202.65      11.67 428.71
CK High      2.65                     11.67 428.712.70      11.72 430.54
CK Average   2.58                -0.0811.60 426.202.69 0.04 11.71 430.24
Essex Cty    2.60                     11.62 426.872.70      11.72 430.54
Mdsx Low     2.60                     11.62 426.872.70      11.72 430.54
Mdsx High    2.62                     11.64 427.602.73      11.75 431.65
Mdsx Average 2.61                -0.0611.63 427.242.72 0.06 11.73 431.10
Hensall      2.60                     11.62 426.872.70      11.72 430.54
Bruce        2.60                     11.62 426.872.70      11.72 430.54
Putnam       2.60                     11.62 426.872.70      11.72 430.54
Burford      2.66                     11.68 429.072.77      11.79 433.12
Port Perry   2.59                     11.61 426.502.70      11.72 430.54
Norfolk      2.60                     11.62 426.872.70      11.72 430.54
Palmerston   2.55                     11.57 425.032.65      11.67 428.71
Varna        2.60                     11.62 426.872.70      11.72 430.54
Trenton      2.60                     11.62 426.872.60      11.62 426.87
Winchester   2.57                     11.59 425.772.70      11.72 430.54
North Gower  2.20                     11.22 412.172.42      11.44 420.26
Huron FOB    2.70                     11.72 430.542.80      11.82 434.22
Kent FOB     2.70                     11.72 430.542.70      11.72 430.54
Lambton FOB  2.80                     11.82 434.222.75      11.77 432.38
Middlesex FOB2.66 2.73 2.77  N/A      11.68 429.072.77      11.79 433.12

PROCESSORS
Windsor      2.96                     11.98 440.103.09      12.11 444.87

TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                 3.00      12.02 441.57
Prescott     2.00                     11.02 404.822.88      11.90 437.16

Toledo El.   -0.09                     8.93 328.00-0.39      8.63 317.08


Exchange rate was 1.2983 down 0.0006
Chicago wheat closed mixed.
SEP18      HI         5.66              JUL19   HI      6.01  3/4
           LOW    5.50  3/4                     LOW        5.89
           CLOSE  5.58  1/4  Up 4 1/2           CLOSE   5.96  3/4  Up 4 1/2

Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP18      HI     6.14  1/4             SEP19   HI         6.50
           LOW    6.02  1/2                     LOW     6.42  1/2
           CLOSE  6.08   Up 1 3/4               CLOSE   6.45  3/4  Up 4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.28          1.47            1.41          0.71
CAD $/bu              6.86          7.05            6.99          6.79
CAD $/tonne         251.99        259.15          256.76        249.49


Direct MarkHarvest 2018                 Harvest 2019
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    1.05    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.00    N/A
London      1.22    1.41   1.09    N/A    1.32    1.32   1.06    N/A
Hensall     1.10    N/A    1.05    N/A    1.15    N/A    1.00    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    1.05    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.05    N/A
Bruce       1.10    1.25   1.05   0.55    1.15    1.20   1.00   0.50
Essex        N/A    N/A    1.10    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.05    N/A
Norwich     1.10    N/A    1.05    N/A    1.15    N/A    1.00    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    1.20   1.05    N/A    N/A     1.20   1.05    N/A
Kent Bridge 1.10    N/A    1.05    N/A    1.15    N/A    1.00    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    1.05    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.05    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    1.05    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.05    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.15   1.05   0.55    N/A     1.10   1.05    N/A
Varna       1.25    1.25   1.05    N/A    1.10    1.20   1.00    N/A
Mitchell    1.10    1.20   1.05    N/A    1.15    1.20   1.00    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.59    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.40   1.30   0.60    N/A     1.37   1.32   0.50
W O Feed                   1.60


PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.92    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.88    N/A

Toledo El. 5.65US         7.34CA         5.82US         7.52CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.30          1.36            1.36          0.53
CAD $/bu              7.26          7.33            7.33          6.99
CAD $/tonne         266.90        269.28          269.28        256.92

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             527.46
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm       190.00

---

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 1, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Wednesday, August 1, 2018 Closing Prices

COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.66 ↑ 07 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 8.91 ↑ 25 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 5.60 ↑ 17 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 6.06 ↑ 19 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 5.63 ↑ 23 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.39        ↑ 07 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7700 ↑ 0.38 points

Corn:
Last week we were convinced of a good rebound and were looking for at least $3.70; this  was realized since that last commentary was published. We also received a red buy signal which further strengthened our outlook. Going forward, we see resistance at the $3.80 - $3.90 level on the September contract with much tougher resistance at the $4.10 level on the lead month futures.
Major support is still seen at the $3.30 level.
Short term indicators are now positive but the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans:
Soybeans held their important support level from last week, and as anticipated we did get the bounce we spoke of in our last commentary, rising almost a full dollar per bushel on the September contract since July 16. We hit the $9.10 level on the September futures July 31 before settling back below the $9 level. We also received a red buy signal which looks positive for the short haul.
Our next target is $9.40 then $9.75 before we hopefully challenge the all-important $10 level on the lead month futures. As I mentioned in our last commentary, unless there are more surprises from the Trump camp, I feel the worst is behind us.
Short term indicators are looking positive with immediate overhead resistance is at the $9.75 - $10 level while initial support is seen at the $8.75 level based on the September futures.  Our $8.20 lows are very critical at this point and a retest of this area, although not expected, would not be a good sign technically. The primary trend remains down.

Wheat:
Wheat is behaving exactly as expected. We are marching toward our $5.80 - $6 target and hope to reach it soon. Once we are there, I would expect some significant resistance and a decent correction. I am, however, still of the belief that we have turned the corner on the bear market and that we are now in a neutral to bullish market which according to my analysis, could last for several years. This does not mean that we could not move back to the $5 area but it does look like we should see a steady move higher in the coming months and into 2019.
Support is now seen at $5 while overhead resistance is pegged at the $5.80 - $6 area based on the September futures.
Short and intermediate term indicators are now positive while the primary trend is neutral, and it has now moved back above the 10-year-old downtrend line.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, August 1, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $254.28/MT ($6.92/bu),  HRW @ $261.44/MT ($7.12/bu),
 HRS @ $249.51/MT ($6.79/bu),   SRW @ $259.05/MT ($7.05/bu).

---

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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