[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 26 15:13:43 EDT 2017
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 26
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2839 up 0.0038
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
DEC17 HI 3.52 DEC18 HI 3.97 1/2
LOW 3.49 1/2 LOW 3.95
CLOSE3.50 1/2 Down 1/2 CLOSE 3.96 1/4 Down 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC17+MAR18+MAR18
CK Low 0.65 4.16 163.58 0.65 4.61 181.59
CK High 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.70 4.66 183.55
CK Avg 0.69 -0.24 4.20 165.22 0.66 -0.35 4.62 181.91
Essex Cty 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.70 4.66 183.55
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.16 163.58 0.65 4.61 181.59
Mdsx High 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.70 4.66 183.55
Mdsx Avg 0.68 -0.25 4.18 164.56 0.68 -0.34 4.64 182.57
Hensall 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.71 4.67 183.95
Bruce 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.65 4.61 181.59
Putnam 0.65 4.16 163.58 0.55 4.51 177.65
Burford 0.80 4.31 169.48 0.65 4.61 181.59
Port Perry 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.70 4.66 183.55
Norfolk 0.80 4.31 169.48 0.70 4.66 183.55
Palmerston 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.65 4.61 181.59
Varna 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.70 4.66 183.55
Trenton 0.75 4.26 167.51 0.85 4.81 189.46
Winchester 1.20 4.71 185.23 0.85 4.81 189.46
North Gower 1.10 4.61 181.29 0.80 4.76 187.49
Huron FOB 0.75 4.26 167.51 0.75 4.71 185.52
Kent FOB 0.75 4.26 167.51 0.65 4.61 181.59
Lamb FOB 0.70 4.21 165.54 0.65 4.61 181.59
Mdsx FOB 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 4.26 167.51 0.65 4.61 181.59
FOB SW Que 1.34 4.85 190.74N/A
Track 1.08 4.58 180.31N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A 0.95 0.90 0.85 4.81 189.46
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 0.95 0.90 0.75 4.71 185.52
Sarn-Eth N/A 0.90 0.95 0.90 N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing 1.10 1.05 0.95 0.90 4.61 181.29 0.85 4.81 189.46
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.00N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.25 1.22 1.10 1.00 4.96 195.36
W O Feed 1.31 4.81 189.40
US Rep 1.18 4.69 184.44
Toledo El. -0.28 3.22 126.87 -0.38 3.58 140.87
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.67 1/2 4.18
HI SD CRN 0.70 4.20 1/2
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2839 up 0.0038
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV17 HI 9.78 3/4 NOV18 HI 9.99 1/2
LOW 9.70 1/4 LOW 9.93
CLOSE9.71 1/4 Down 4 1/4 CLOSE 9.93 3/4 Down 3
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN18
CK Low 1.90 11.61 426.691.85 11.79 433.12
CK High 2.00 11.71 430.361.96 11.90 437.16
CK Average 1.97 -0.6111.68 429.201.93 -0.6711.86 435.93
Essex Cty 1.85 11.56 424.851.85 11.79 433.12
Mdsx Low 1.96 11.67 428.891.95 11.89 436.79
Mdsx High 2.05 11.76 432.201.96 11.90 437.16
Mdsx Average 2.01 -0.5911.72 430.541.96 -0.6511.89 436.97
Hensall 2.03 11.74 431.281.93 11.86 435.87
Bruce 2.00 11.71 430.361.95 11.89 436.79
Putnam 1.95 11.66 428.521.85 11.79 433.12
Burford 2.03 11.74 431.462.03 11.97 439.73
Port Perry 1.93 11.64 427.791.93 11.87 436.06
Norfolk 2.05 11.76 432.202.00 11.94 438.63
Palmerston 1.95 11.66 428.521.90 11.84 434.95
Varna 2.00 11.71 430.361.90 11.84 434.95
Trenton 2.00 11.71 430.361.95 11.89 436.79
Winchester 1.95 11.66 428.521.90 11.84 434.95
North Gower 1.88 11.59 425.951.75 11.69 429.44
Huron FOB 2.10 11.81 434.042.00 11.94 438.63
Kent FOB 1.95 11.66 428.521.95 11.89 436.79
Lambton FOB 2.10 11.81 434.042.10 12.04 442.30
Middlesex FOB2.05 2.11 2.15 2.20 11.76 432.202.03 11.97 439.73
TRANSFER
Prescott N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.51 9.20 338.00-0.38 9.55 351.03
Exchange rate was 1.2839 up 0.0038
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC17 HI 4.37 1/2 JUL18 HI 4.83
LOW 4.31 LOW 4.76 3/4
CLOSE 4.31 3/4 Down 3 3/4 CLOSE 4.78 1/2 Down 2 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC17 HI 6.23 SEP18 HI 6.38 3/4
LOW 6.17 3/4 LOW 6.32
CLOSE 6.20 1/2 Down 1 CLOSE 6.37 1/4 Down 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.84 1.10 0.97 0.61
CAD $/bu 5.16 5.42 5.29 6.81
CAD $/tonne 189.53 198.97 194.25 250.27
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 0.70 N/A
London 0.76 0.76 0.76 N/A 1.01 0.95 0.69 N/A
Hensall 0.80 N/A 0.80 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.70 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Bruce 0.80 0.60 0.70 0.10 0.90 0.65 0.70 0.35
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.82 N/A
Norwich 0.80 N/A 0.80 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.70 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.85 0.80 N/A N/A 0.70 0.70 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.80 N/A 0.80 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.70 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 0.70 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 0.70 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.60 0.70 0.25 N/A 0.65 0.70 0.35
Varna 1.10 0.80 0.80 N/A 0.90 0.70 0.70 N/A
Mitchell 0.80 0.80 0.80 N/A 0.90 0.70 0.70 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.28 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.80 0.75 0.35 N/A 0.96 0.86 0.15
W O Feed 1.44
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Prescott N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.42N/A N/A N/A 1.34N/A
Toledo El. 4.24US 5.44CA 4.64US 5.93CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.96 0.96 0.89 0.38
CAD $/bu 5.74 5.74 5.68 6.75
CAD $/tonne 211.01 211.01 208.65 248.06
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 452.07
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 140.00 - 145.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 25, 2017
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, October 25, 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.51 ↑ 03 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 9.75 ↓ 12 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 4.35 ↑ 05 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 6.22 ↑ 12 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 4.32 ↑ 04 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.76 ↑ 08 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7811 ↓ 2.10 points
Corn:
The December Corn contract made a double bottom this week on our charts. This is somewhat supportive as we tested last week’s lows of $3.40 which was also the December contract lows. This support should allow some upside in the short term and possibly challenge the $3.60 mark on the December futures. This would open the possibility of a larger rally into the month of November. The big issue I see with any sizeable rally is the red sell signal we received near the end of August and the fundamentals of a sizeable harvest.
Support is still seen at the $3.40 level on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.60.
Short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
As expected, we got our pullback in prices on the November contract this week after flirting with our $10 resistance area. The 25 cent correction allows us to gain some momentum for another shot at the big round $10 number. This week we were encouraged as we were given a red buy signal last week on our weekly charts. Our double bottom formation on our January chart allows us the potential to challenge the $10.50 level sometime in November. We will be switching to the January futures in soybeans for our next report.
We are still expecting much higher prices in 2018, but we will need to close above $10.50 on the lead month contract to negate a three year old trend line and begin the ascent.
Support is seen at $9.40 and our overhead resistance is at the $10 mark on the November contract.
Both short and medium term indicators are positive, but the primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
We mentioned in our last commentary that the recent lows in the December wheat contract would soon be tested, and it came to pass this week as we successfully tested $4.23 on October 23. It is too early to tell if this bottom will hold, but for now, we are trading at $4.35 on the December contract. The only concern I have is that we missed running the stops below the market by less than one penny. On the positive side, the day that the low was challenged was an outside day suggesting that we should see higher prices in the short term.
For now, the $4 bottom on the weekly chart from September 1 is still lurking and only time will tell if this major support will need to prove itself before we get a true price reversal.
Initial support still sits at $4.20 with solid support at $4 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.60.
Short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.
Cash Grain prices as of the close, October 25, are as follows:
SWW @ $190.74/MT ($5.19/bu), HRW @ $200.14/MT ($5.45/bu),
HRS @ $249.99/MT ($6.80/bu), SRW @ $195.43/MT ($5.32/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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