[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Mar 30 15:32:24 EDT 2017
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, March 30
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3279 down 0.0093
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
MAY17 HI 3.58 3/4 DEC17 HI 3.82
LOW 3.56 3/4 LOW 3.80
CLOSE3.57 1/2 Down 1 CLOSE 3.81 Down 1
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY17+JUL17+JUL17
CK Low 0.65 4.23 166.33 0.75 4.56 179.52
CK High 0.70 4.28 168.30 0.80 4.61 181.49
CK Avg 0.67 -0.39 4.24 166.99 0.76 -0.38 4.57 179.85
Essex Cty 0.55 4.13 162.39 0.75 4.56 179.52
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.23 166.33 0.75 4.56 179.52
Mdsx High 0.65 4.23 166.33 0.80 4.61 181.49
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.40 4.23 166.33 0.78 -0.36 4.59 180.50
Hensall 0.68 4.25 167.32 0.83 4.64 182.47
Bruce 0.70 4.28 168.30 0.85 4.66 183.46
Putnam 0.65 4.23 166.33 0.80 4.61 181.49
Burford 0.70 4.28 168.30 0.80 4.61 181.49
Port Perry 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.85 4.66 183.46
Norfolk 0.75 4.33 170.27 0.85 4.66 183.46
Palmerston 0.75 4.33 170.27 0.80 4.61 181.49
Varna 0.70 4.28 168.30 0.85 4.66 183.46
Trenton 1.00 4.58 180.11 0.90 4.71 185.42
Winchester 1.12 4.70 184.83 1.10 4.91 193.30
North Gower 1.07 4.65 182.87 1.00 4.81 189.36
Huron FOB 1.02 4.60 180.90 0.90 4.71 185.42
Kent FOB 0.95 4.53 178.14 0.75 4.56 179.52
Lamb FOB 0.95 4.53 178.14 0.80 4.61 181.49
Mdsx FOB N/A 0.90 0.90 0.95 0.75 4.56 179.52
FOB SW Que 1.25 4.83 189.95N/A
Track 1.19 4.77 187.59N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A 1.20 1.25 1.25 1.00 4.81 189.36
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.18 4.99 196.45
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 4.81 189.36
Sarn-Eth 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 4.73 186.02N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.05 4.86 191.33
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.20 5.01 197.23
W O Feed 1.37 4.94 194.60
US Rep 1.61 5.19 204.12
Toledo El. -0.13 3.44 135.50 -0.33 3.48 136.90
TRANSFER
Sarnia 1.10 4.68 184.05 0.95 4.76187 2/5
MID SD CRN 0.67 1/2 4.25
HI SD CRN 0.70 4.27 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3279 down 0.0093
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
MAY17 HI 9.70 NOV17 HI 9.69
LOW 9.61 LOW 9.60 3/4
CLOSE9.63 Down 6 CLOSE 9.63 1/4 Down 4 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+MAY1+JUL17
CK Low 2.50 12.13 445.702.35 11.98 440.28
CK High 2.55 12.18 447.542.45 12.08 443.96
CK Average 2.52 -0.5012.15 446.442.41 -0.5812.04 442.36
Essex Cty 2.55 12.18 447.542.45 12.08 443.96
Mdsx Low 2.52 12.15 446.442.37 12.00 441.02
Mdsx High 2.55 12.18 447.542.40 12.03 442.12
Mdsx Average 2.54 -0.4812.17 446.992.39 -0.6012.02 441.57
Hensall 2.55 12.18 447.542.43 12.06 443.04
Bruce 2.55 12.18 447.542.40 12.03 442.12
Putnam 2.70 12.33 453.052.55 12.18 447.63
Burford 2.62 12.25 450.112.47 12.10 444.69
Port Perry 2.52 12.15 446.442.37 12.00 441.02
Norfolk 2.55 12.18 447.542.55 12.18 447.63
Palmerston 2.60 12.23 449.382.50 12.13 445.79
Varna 2.65 12.28 451.212.55 12.18 447.63
Trenton 2.60 12.23 449.382.55 12.18 447.63
Winchester 2.48 12.11 444.972.58 12.21 448.73
North Gower 2.46 12.09 444.232.61 12.24 449.83
Huron FOB 2.70 12.33 453.052.55 12.18 447.63
Kent FOB 2.60 12.23 449.382.40 12.03 442.12
Lambton FOB 2.60 12.23 449.382.50 12.13 445.79
Middlesex FOB N/A 2.69 2.69 N/A 2.58 12.21 448.73
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.97 2.97 2.90 N/A 12.60 462.972.87 12.50 459.39
N/A N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.74 12.37 454.522.92 12.55 461.23
Sarnia 2.57 12.20 448.272.82 12.45 457.55
Toledo El. -0.39 9.24 339.67-0.52 9.11 334.87
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3279 down 0.0093
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
MAY17 HI 4.26 1/4 JUL17 HI 4.39
LOW 4.19 1/2 LOW 4.32 1/2
CLOSE 4.21 Down 4 1/2 CLOSE 4.34 Down 4 1/2
Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
MAY17 HI 5.49 1/2 SEP17 HI 5.60 3/4
LOW 5.41 LOW 5.53 1/4
CLOSE 5.43 1/2 Up 1/4 CLOSE 5.54 3/4 Down 1
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.33
CAD $/bu 4.87 4.87 4.87 5.77
CAD $/tonne 178.89 178.89 178.89 211.88
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
London 0.74 0.67 0.67 N/A 0.92 0.65 0.72 N/A
Hensall 0.80 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.75 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Bruce 0.80 0.70 0.70 0.40 0.90 0.70 0.75 0.60
Essex N/A N/A 0.65 N/A N/A N/A 0.77 N/A
Norwich 0.80 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.75 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A 0.75 0.80 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.80 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.75 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.70 0.70 N/A N/A 0.70 0.75 0.60
Varna 0.80 0.70 0.70 N/A 1.05 0.75 0.75 N/A
Mitchell 0.80 0.70 0.70 N/A 0.90 0.75 0.75 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.58 0.58 0.14 N/A 1.11 1.11 0.68
W O Feed 1.36
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A 1.02 N/A N/A N/A 1.13 N/A
Prescott N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.39N/A N/A N/A 1.43N/A
Toledo El. 4.06US 5.40CA 4.19US 5.57CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.77
CAD $/bu 5.37 5.37 5.37 6.32
CAD $/tonne 197.47 197.47 197.47 232.05
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 471.69
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 175.00
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for March 29, 2017, by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, March 29, 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.58 ↓ 01 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 9.70 ↓ 28 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.25 ↑ 05 cents
Wheat Minn. May 5.43 ↑ 04 cents
Wheat Kansas May 4.23 ↓ 07 cents
Chicago Oats May 2.30 ↓ 22 cents
Canadian $ June .7510 ↑ 0.02 points
CORN: Our current sell signal from March 10 is still intact and we have three areas of support that we are watching, based on the May charts. The $3.50, $3.40, and finally $3.30 levels all show good support while our overhead resistance shows a very well defined down-trend line that cuts across the $4 mark based on the weekly charts. March 31 is the USDA crop report and we could see some volatility. Short term indicators are negative and the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: We have dropped more than 70 cents per bushel since receiving our red sell signal back on February 22 and there could still be more downside. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report is due out on Friday, March 31 and could show a few surprises. Our first line of support on the May contract is between $9.30 - $9.50 as the pressure continues on the downside. Soybeans are very capable of severe price swings of as much as a dollar or more; over short periods and if, and when, we see an end to this five year downtrend, I believe it to will be a significant and volatile event identifiable by a reversal chart pattern. Meanwhile, we have to trade this by the rules. That is, sell the rally in a bear market. If the $9.30 support fails significantly, our next major support is almost a full dollar lower at the $8.50 level. Let’s hope that outlook doesn’t transpire. Short term indicators are all negative and the main trend is still down.
WHEAT: The red sell signal is still intact as we traded down to the $4.18 level on the May contract. We managed however, to stay above the $4.20 on the close; which otherwise would suggest a lower move in the coming week. The March 31 USDA report could hold a few surprises, which could lead to a possible test of the recent May contract lows of $4.05 in the coming weeks.
Our overhead resistance and trend-line is at $4.50 based on the May contract and we would need a close above that level to suggest possible higher prices coming into spring. With renewed interest by way of record short positions by the hedge funds, one thing we can be certain of is that when this market turns to the upside for real, it could accelerate quickly based on short covering activity. Short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, March 29 are as follows:
SWW @ $199.62/MT ($5.43/bu), HRW @ $199.62/MT ($5.43/bu),
HRS @ $232.90/MT ($6.34/bu), SRW @ $199.62/MT ($5.43/bu),
----
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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