[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jun 28 15:50:33 EDT 2017
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, June 28
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3008 down 0.0140
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
JUL17 HI 3.60 1/2 DEC17 HI 3.78 1/2
LOW 3.56 3/4 LOW 3.75 3/4
CLOSE3.56 3/4 Down 2 1/2 CLOSE 3.76 1/4 Down 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP17+SEP17+DEC17
CK Low 0.65 4.22 166.04 0.75 4.51 177.65
CK High 0.90 4.47 175.88 0.95 4.71 185.52
CK Avg 0.73 -0.27 4.29 168.99 0.82 -0.24 4.58 180.27
Essex Cty 0.70 4.27 168.00 0.85 4.61 181.59
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.22 166.04 0.75 4.51 177.65
Mdsx High 0.65 4.22 166.04 0.75 4.51 177.65
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.33 4.22 166.04 0.75 -0.29 4.51 177.65
Hensall 0.73 4.29 168.99 0.80 4.56 179.62
Bruce 0.80 4.37 171.94 1.00 4.76 187.49
Putnam 0.75 4.32 169.97 0.85 4.61 181.59
Burford 0.65 4.22 166.04 0.85 4.61 181.59
Port Perry 0.90 4.47 175.88 0.85 4.61 181.59
Norfolk 0.85 4.42 173.91 0.95 4.71 185.52
Palmerston 0.90 4.47 175.88 0.85 4.61 181.59
Varna 0.80 4.37 171.94 0.85 4.61 181.59
Trenton 1.20 4.77 187.69 1.00 4.76 187.49
Winchester 1.30 4.87 191.63 1.15 4.91 193.40
North Gower 1.11 4.68 184.15 1.13 4.89 192.61
Huron FOB 1.12 4.69 184.54 0.98 4.74 186.70
Kent FOB 1.05 4.62 181.78 0.85 4.61 181.59
Lamb FOB 0.90 4.47 175.88 0.75 4.51 177.65
Mdsx FOB 0.95 0.95N/A N/A 4.52 177.85 0.90 4.66 183.55
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.20 4.77 187.69N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 4.86 191.43
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.15 1.20 1.00 4.76 187.49
Sarn-Eth 1.10 1.10 1.20 1.15 4.67 183.75N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.15 4.91 193.40
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.20 1.15 4.91 193.40
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.15 4.91 193.40
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.55 1.30 5.06 199.30
W O Feed 1.41 4.98 195.96
US Rep 1.46 5.03 197.92
Toledo El. -0.05 3.52 138.40 -0.32 3.44 135.34
TRANSFER
Sarnia 0.78 4.35 171.15 0.95 4.71185 1/2
MID SD CRN 0.85 4.61 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.95 4.71 1/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3008 down 0.0140
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JUL17 HI 9.17 1/2 NOV17 HI 9.23 3/4
LOW 9.10 1/2 LOW 9.17
CLOSE9.14 Up 2 3/4 CLOSE 9.21 3/4 Up 4 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+AUG1+NOV17
CK Low 2.30 11.44 420.351.90 11.12 408.50
CK High 2.50 11.64 427.702.10 11.32 415.85
CK Average 2.40 -0.2711.54 423.961.97 -0.6011.19 411.19
Essex Cty 2.50 11.64 427.701.85 11.07 406.66
Mdsx Low 2.34 11.48 421.821.99 11.21 411.81
Mdsx High 2.45 11.59 425.862.00 11.22 412.17
Mdsx Average 2.40 -0.2711.54 423.842.00 -0.5811.21 411.99
Hensall 2.40 11.54 424.022.00 11.22 412.17
Bruce 2.45 11.59 425.862.00 11.22 412.17
Putnam 2.55 11.69 429.532.20 11.42 419.52
Burford 2.41 11.55 424.392.06 11.28 414.38
Port Perry 2.34 11.48 421.821.99 11.21 411.81
Norfolk 2.35 11.49 422.192.05 11.27 414.01
Palmerston 2.40 11.54 424.022.00 11.22 412.17
Varna 2.35 11.49 422.192.10 11.32 415.85
Trenton 2.45 11.59 425.862.10 11.32 415.85
Winchester 2.25 11.39 418.512.30 11.52 423.20
North Gower 2.36 11.50 422.552.49 11.71 430.18
Huron FOB 2.50 11.64 427.702.20 11.42 419.52
Kent FOB 2.40 11.54 424.022.00 11.22 412.17
Lambton FOB 2.40 11.54 424.022.15 11.37 417.68
Middlesex FOB2.49 2.49 N/A N/A 11.63 427.332.16 11.38 418.05
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.82 2.75 2.70 N/A 11.96 439.452.50 11.72 430.54
N/A N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.40 11.54 424.022.38 11.60 426.14
Sarnia N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.17 8.97 329.62-0.62 8.59 315.78
Exchange rate was 1.3008 down 0.0140
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP17 HI 4.75 JUL18 HI 5.28
LOW 4.67 3/4 LOW 5.22
CLOSE 4.73 Up 4 CLOSE 5.26 Up 3 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly higher to higher.
SEP17 HI 7.17 1/2 SEP18 HI 6.33
LOW 6.87 1/4 LOW 6.25
CLOSE 7.08 Up 22 CLOSE 6.30 3/4 Up 5
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.10 1.03 1.03 0.63
CAD $/bu 5.83 5.76 5.76 7.71
CAD $/tonne 214.13 211.74 211.74 283.43
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.69 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
London 0.91 0.71 0.65 N/A 0.61 0.68 0.68 N/A
Hensall 0.84 N/A 0.69 N/A 1.00 N/A 0.80 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.89 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Bruce 0.84 0.74 0.69 0.42 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.60
Essex N/A N/A 0.72 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Norwich 0.84 N/A 0.69 N/A 1.00 N/A 0.85 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.79 0.84 N/A N/A 0.75 0.80 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.84 N/A 0.69 N/A 1.00 N/A 0.80 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.69 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.69 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.75 0.75 0.60 N/A 0.93 0.90 0.60
Varna 0.95 0.65 0.65 N/A 1.00 0.75 0.80 N/A
Mitchell 0.84 0.69 0.69 N/A 1.00 0.75 0.80 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.53 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.01 1.01 0.54 N/A N/A N/A N/A
W O Feed 1.39
TERMINAL
Sarnia 1.34 N/A 1.25 N/A 1.02 N/A 1.12 N/A
Prescott N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.15N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Toledo El. 4.47US 5.81CA 5.11US 6.64CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.92 0.86 0.86
CAD $/bu 6.18 6.12 6.12
CAD $/tonne 227.14 224.76 224.76
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 443.80
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 170.00
-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for Thursday June 28, 2017
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, June 28 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sept 3.57 ↓ 11 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 9.21 ↑ 02 cents
Wheat CBOT Sept 4.73 ↑ 08 cents
Wheat Minn. Sept 7.10 ↑ 52 cents
Wheat Kansas Sept 4.80 ↑ 12 cents
Chicago Oats Sept 2.59 ↑ 06 cents
Canadian $ Sept .7690 ↑ 1.55 points
Corn: Although we nailed our $4.00-resistance level ($3.99 on September contract) before prices reversed, we pulled back to our support level of $3.60 faster than expected. Also unexpected was a red sell signal that flashed on June 22. This has changed the dynamics on the charts and it looks like we are once again on the defensive after hitting our $4 multi-year downtrend line and dropping sharply. From the severity of the pullback since June 9, it could take more time than previously thought before we attempt to challenge the $4 trend line again. Since we failed to negate that all-important line, the down-trend is still very much intact.
Initial support on the September futures is seen at $3.50, while overhead resistance is still at $4, also on the September contract.
Short term indicators are again negative and the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: As expressed in the last commentary, we are now challenging the $9.10 support area on the new crop November futures. This $9 futures price is important because should we fail to find good support in this area, and close much below the $9 price on November, there is nothing on the charts to prevent a selloff toward the $8.50 bottom of 2015 that we have spoken of so many times since the spring. Overhead resistance is seen at $9.50 and again at $9.80, while support on the September contract continues to be at the $9 mark.
Short term indicators are all negative, and the main trend is still down.
WHEAT: It looks like our question was answered as to which we would see first, a pullback to $6 or a rush towards $7.25. We are currently trading at $7.10 as of the close on June 28. Our red buy signal on June 12 possibly marks the end of a six year bear market. Of course, we could be premature and it’s likely we could still see a hard break in prices, but this should not disturb the bullish formation that we are building. Bull markets can last from two to 10 years, and once entrenched, these markets are to be viewed from the long side, which is to say, buy the dips. This is in direct opposition to the bear market we have seen in the Minneapolis wheat since 2011 which dictates to sell the rallies. Resistance is seen at the $7.25 level based on the September contract. For today, we will say that the long or intermediate trend is neutral but with a very positive bias.
Chicago wheat, while not performing as well, is still on track to challenge the $5 level this summer and could even reach the major overhead resistance target of $5.25 before the end of July. Meanwhile, solid support is seen at $4.50 on the September contract, while our overhead resistance is now at the $5 - $5.25 also on the September futures.
Short term indicators are positive, but the primary trend on Chicago is still down.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, June 28 are as follows:
SWW @ $214.18/MT ($5.83/bu), HRW @ $211.79/MT ($5.76/bu),
HRS @ $288.75/MT ($7.86/bu), SRW @ $211.79/MT ($5.76/bu),
-----
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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