[Farmmarketnews] Friday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Fri Jun 9 15:51:41 EDT 2017
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Fri, June 9
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3468 down 0.0034
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
JUL17 HI 3.89 1/2 DEC17 HI 4.07
LOW 3.80 3/4 LOW 3.98 1/2
CLOSE3.87 3/4 Up 2 CLOSE 4.06 Up 2 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP17+SEP17+DEC17
CK Low 0.75 4.63 182.18 0.95 5.01 197.23
CK High 0.80 4.68 184.15 1.00 5.06 199.20
CK Avg 0.76 -0.44 4.64 182.50 0.97 -0.33 5.03 197.89
Essex Cty 0.65 4.53 178.24 1.00 5.06 199.20
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.63 182.18 0.95 5.01 197.23
Mdsx High 0.75 4.63 182.18 0.95 5.01 197.23
Mdsx Avg 0.75 -0.44 4.63 182.18 0.95 -0.34 5.01 197.23
Hensall 0.80 4.68 184.15 0.98 5.04 198.22
Bruce 0.75 4.63 182.18 1.00 5.06 199.20
Putnam 0.75 4.63 182.18 0.95 5.01 197.23
Burford 0.75 4.63 182.18 1.00 5.06 199.20
Port Perry 1.00 4.88 192.02 1.00 5.06 199.20
Norfolk 0.85 4.73 186.11 1.05 5.11 201.17
Palmerston 0.80 4.68 184.15 1.00 5.06 199.20
Varna 0.80 4.68 184.15 0.95 5.01 197.23
Trenton 1.20 5.08 199.89 1.00 5.06 199.20
Winchester 1.20 5.08 199.89 1.25 5.31 209.05
North Gower 1.18 5.06 199.10 1.17 5.23 205.90
Huron FOB 1.15 5.03 197.92 1.00 5.06 199.20
Kent FOB 1.05 4.93 193.99 0.96 5.02 197.63
Lamb FOB 1.05 4.93 193.99 1.10 5.16 203.14
Mdsx FOB 1.05 1.05 1.10N/A 4.93 193.99 1.00 5.06 199.20
FOB SW Que 1.57 5.45 214.46N/A
Track 1.26 5.14 202.25N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.42 1.22 5.28 207.86
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.35 1.40 1.10 5.16 203.14
Sarn-Eth 1.25 1.30 1.30 1.30 5.13 201.86N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 5.41 212.98
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.45 1.50 1.15 5.21 205.11
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.25 5.31 209.05
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.60 1.30 5.36 211.01
W O Feed 1.45 5.33 209.73
US Rep 1.71 5.59 219.97
Toledo El. -0.05 3.82 150.53 -0.34 3.72 146.58
TRANSFER
Sarnia 0.78 4.66 183.36 0.95 5.01197 1/4
MID SD CRN 0.97 1/2 5.03 1/2
HI SD CRN 1.00 5.061
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3468 down 0.0034
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JUL17 HI 9.44 NOV17 HI 9.48 3/4
LOW 9.32 3/4 LOW 9.38 1/2
CLOSE9.41 1/2 Up 3 1/2 CLOSE 9.48 1/4 Up 4 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+NOV1+NOV17
CK Low 2.65 12.07 443.312.30 11.78 432.93
CK High 2.80 12.22 448.822.45 11.93 438.44
CK Average 2.72 -0.4012.14 445.952.39 -0.6711.87 436.06
Essex Cty 2.65 12.07 443.312.25 11.73 431.10
Mdsx Low 2.70 12.12 445.152.40 11.88 436.61
Mdsx High 2.75 12.17 446.992.41 11.89 436.97
Mdsx Average 2.73 -0.4012.14 446.072.41 -0.6611.89 436.79
Hensall 2.75 12.17 446.992.40 11.88 436.61
Bruce 2.75 12.17 446.992.40 11.88 436.61
Putnam 2.80 12.22 448.822.45 11.93 438.44
Burford 2.77 12.19 447.722.48 11.96 439.55
Port Perry 2.70 12.12 445.152.41 11.89 436.97
Norfolk 2.78 12.20 448.092.45 11.93 438.44
Palmerston 2.70 12.12 445.152.40 11.88 436.61
Varna 2.75 12.17 446.992.40 11.88 436.61
Trenton 2.80 12.22 448.822.45 11.93 438.44
Winchester 2.61 12.03 441.842.70 12.18 447.63
North Gower 2.57 11.99 440.372.67 12.15 446.53
Huron FOB 2.90 12.32 452.502.50 11.98 440.28
Kent FOB 2.83 12.25 449.932.35 11.83 434.77
Lambton FOB 2.80 12.22 448.822.70 12.18 447.63
Middlesex FOB2.94 2.94 N/A N/A 12.36 453.972.58 12.06 443.22
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.17 3.10 N/A N/A 12.59 462.422.90 12.38 454.98
N/A N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.73 12.15 446.252.87 12.35 453.88
Sarnia 2.46 11.88 436.332.73 12.21 448.73
Toledo El. -0.20 9.21 338.52-0.61 8.88 326.15
Exchange rate was 1.3468 down 0.0034
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL17 HI 4.54 1/4 JUL17 HI 4.54 1/4
LOW 4.43 3/4 LOW 4.43 3/4
CLOSE 4.45 3/4 Down 3 1/2 CLOSE 4.45 3/4 Down 3 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
JUL17 HI 6.14 3/4 SEP17 HI 6.19
LOW 6.02 1/4 LOW 6.06 1/4
CLOSE 6.06 1/2 Up 2 1/4 CLOSE 6.11 Up 2 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.42
CAD $/bu 5.06 5.06 5.06 6.48
CAD $/tonne 185.95 185.95 185.95 238.28
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
London 0.87 0.80 0.80 N/A 1.07 0.94 0.94 N/A
Hensall 0.95 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.90 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Bruce 0.95 N/A 0.85 0.45 1.10 0.90 0.90 0.65
Essex N/A N/A 0.62 N/A N/A N/A 0.81 N/A
Norwich 0.95 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.90 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A 0.90 1.00 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.95 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.90 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.95 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.75 0.80 0.45 N/A 0.90 0.90 0.60
Varna 0.90 0.85 0.80 N/A 1.20 0.90 0.90 N/A
Mitchell 0.95 0.85 0.85 N/A 1.10 0.90 0.90 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.53 0.53 0.23 N/A 1.34 1.34 0.61
W O Feed 1.54
TERMINAL
Sarnia 1.19 N/A 1.09 N/A 1.43 N/A 1.33 N/A
Prescott N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.48N/A N/A N/A 1.34N/A
Toledo El. 4.36US 5.87CA 4.36US 5.87CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.34 1.28 1.28 0.70
CAD $/bu 5.80 5.73 5.73 6.81
CAD $/tonne 213.16 210.69 210.69 250.40
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 447.44
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 175.00 - 180.00
Wednesday, June 8, 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD
PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July
3.84 ↑
15 cents
Soybeans CBOT July
9.37 ↑
10 cents
Wheat CBOT July
4.47 ↑
17 cents
Wheat Minn. July 6.05
↑ 32
cents
Wheat Kansas July
4.51 ↑
20 cents
Chicago Oats July
2.48 ↑
01 cents
Canadian $ June
.7405 ↑
0.05 points
Corn: We currently sit at our $3.80 resistance line, and the charts are looking positive. With a little help, we hope to challenge the all-important $4 trend line in the coming weeks. It is likely that we will have a correction once this goal is accomplished. With the unusual weather this season, we could be looking at the year of the trend change, but first we need to close through that $4 barrier with confidence. Support on the July contract is seen at $3.60, while overhead resistance is still at $3.80, with major resistance at the $4 mark based on the lead month contract.
Short term indicators are turning positive, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Our $9.40 support level, which was broken last week, now becomes our overhead resistance on the July contract. Soybeans still look like they need a major story to turn the tide and stop the downward pressure on prices. Unfortunately, the late spring could likely translate into even more acres. Our red sell signal on May 19 is still intact, and we will possibly see more downside after the next bounce in prices have been completed. Overhead resistance is seen at $9.50 and again at $9.80, while support in the July contract is now at the $9 mark. It is very likely we will see a test of the $9 price on the July contract in the coming weeks. It is important that this level holds, as there isn’t much support below there until we approach the $8.50 level.
Short term indicators are all negative, and the main trend is still down.
WHEAT: Spring wheat has been front and center for the past two weeks, as prices have rocketed more than 70 cents per bushel on the July contract. The chart indicators that we mentioned in the previous commentaries have performed as expected. We are currently challenging the primary or main trend line that has been in place since 2008. This won’t go without a fight, and for that reason I expect we could see a correction from these levels. According to our charts, we are looking at a major trend-line that runs between $6.20 and $6.40 on the July Spring contract. This is a 9 year old trend-line that will require work to be negated. Having said that, I think it will eventually be broken, and the trend will change to the upside. This of course could take patience. Meanwhile, our intermediate trend is positive on the spring wheat. As for Chicago, the charts are looking positive but not to the same degree. We have our five wave formation that suggests we could be looking at $6 wheat by July. The trend-line on the Chicago contract is around that level; while it is very likely to be tested, breaking through it may not be as easy. Meanwhile, solid support is seen at $4.20 while our resistance at $4.60 and again closer to the $5 mark.
Short term indicators are have turned positive, but the primary trend is down.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, June 8 are as follows:
SWW @ $215.27/MT ($5.86/bu), HRW @ $212.79/MT ($5.79/bu),
HRS @ $249.49/MT ($6.79/bu), SRW @ $215.27/MT ($5.79/bu),
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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