[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jan 19 15:34:58 EST 2017
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, January 19
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3329 up 0.0152
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAR17 HI 3.67 1/2 DEC17 HI 3.94 1/2
LOW 3.62 3/4 LOW 3.89 1/2
CLOSE3.66 1/4 Up 1 1/4 CLOSE 3.93 1/2 Up 1 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR17+MAY17+MAY17
CK Low 0.65 4.31 169.78 0.75 4.69 184.44
CK High 0.70 4.36 171.74 0.85 4.79 188.38
CK Avg 0.66 -0.42 4.32 170.10 0.78 -0.40 4.71 185.42
Essex Cty 0.55 4.21 165.84 0.75 4.69 184.44
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.31 169.78 0.75 4.69 184.44
Mdsx High 0.65 4.31 169.78 0.80 4.74 186.41
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.42 4.31 169.78 0.78 -0.40 4.71 185.42
Hensall 0.68 4.34 170.76 0.80 4.74 186.41
Bruce 0.65 4.31 169.78 0.80 4.74 186.41
Putnam 0.65 4.31 169.78 0.75 4.69 184.44
Burford 0.65 4.31 169.78 0.75 4.69 184.44
Port Perry 1.10 4.76 187.49 0.85 4.79 188.38
Norfolk 0.75 4.41 173.71 0.80 4.74 186.41
Palmerston 0.75 4.41 173.71 0.75 4.69 184.44
Varna 0.70 4.36 171.74 0.80 4.74 186.41
Trenton 1.20 4.86 191.43 0.85 4.79 188.38
Winchester 1.20 4.86 191.43 1.15 5.09 200.19
North Gower 1.20 4.86 191.43 1.10 5.04 198.22
Huron FOB 1.00 4.66 183.55 0.90 4.84 190.35
Kent FOB 1.00 4.66 183.55 0.80 4.74 186.41
Lamb FOB 1.00 4.66 183.55 0.80 4.74 186.41
Mdsx FOB 0.70 0.75 0.75N/A 4.36 171.74 0.75 4.69 184.44
FOB SW Que 1.18 4.84 190.64N/A
Track 1.34 5.00 196.94N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth 1.21 1.27 1.27 1.22 4.87 191.82 1.00 4.94 194.28
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.25 1.00 4.94 194.28
Sarn-Eth 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 4.86 191.43N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.30 1.05 4.99 196.25
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.40 1.10 5.04 198.22
W O Feed 1.49 5.15 202.84
US Rep 1.71 5.37 211.51
Toledo El. -0.11 3.56 139.99 -0.33 3.60 141.81
TRANSFER
Sarnia 1.00 4.66 183.55 0.95 4.89192 1/3
MID SD CRN 0.67 1/2 4.33 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.70 4.36 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3329 up 0.0152
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.
MAR17 HI 10.77 1/4 NOV17 HI 10.33 3/4
LOW 10.66 3/4 LOW 10.26 1/2
CLOSE10.70 1/4 Down 4 3/4 CLOSE 10.29 3/4 Up 1 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAR1+MAY17
CK Low 2.65 13.35 490.622.52 12.82 470.96
CK High 2.70 13.40 492.462.60 12.90 473.90
CK Average 2.69 -0.6513.39 492.092.55 -0.6512.85 472.19
Essex Cty 2.70 13.40 492.462.55 12.85 472.06
Mdsx Low 2.69 13.39 492.092.50 12.80 470.23
Mdsx High 2.70 13.40 492.462.55 12.85 472.06
Mdsx Average 2.70 -0.6413.40 492.272.53 -0.6712.82 471.15
Hensall 2.70 13.40 492.462.58 12.87 472.98
Bruce 2.70 13.40 492.462.55 12.85 472.06
Putnam 2.70 13.40 492.462.55 12.85 472.06
Burford 2.75 13.45 494.292.56 12.86 472.43
Port Perry 2.69 13.39 492.092.50 12.80 470.23
Norfolk 2.75 13.45 494.292.70 13.00 477.58
Palmerston 2.70 13.40 492.462.60 12.90 473.90
Varna 2.70 13.40 492.462.60 12.90 473.90
Trenton 2.80 13.50 496.132.60 12.90 473.90
Winchester 2.60 13.30 488.782.44 12.74 468.02
North Gower 2.70 13.40 492.462.75 13.05 479.41
Huron FOB 2.80 13.50 496.132.70 13.00 477.58
Kent FOB 2.80 13.50 496.132.55 12.85 472.06
Lambton FOB 2.70 13.40 492.462.60 12.90 473.90
Middlesex FOB2.82 2.86 2.91 N/A 13.52 496.872.67 12.97 476.47
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.25 3.30 3.35 N/A 13.95 512.673.10 13.40 492.27
N/A N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott N/A 3.06 13.36 490.80
Sarnia 2.67 13.37 491.362.84 13.14 482.72
Toledo El. -0.53 10.17 373.68-0.52 9.78 359.29
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3329 up 0.0152
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR17 HI 4.30 3/4 JUL17 HI 4.60 1/2
LOW 4.22 3/4 LOW 4.53 1/4
CLOSE 4.23 1/2 Down 7 1/2 CLOSE 4.55 1/4 Down 6 1/4
Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
MAR17 HI 5.85 SEP17 HI 5.65 1/2
LOW 5.72 1/4 LOW 5.59 3/4
CLOSE 5.76 1/2 Up 3 CLOSE 5.61 1/4 Down 1 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.58
CAD $/bu 5.11 5.11 5.11 6.35
CAD $/tonne 187.65 187.65 187.65 233.15
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
London 0.73 0.73 0.73 N/A 0.76 0.62 0.62 N/A
Hensall 0.70 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.60 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Bruce 0.70 0.65 0.70 0.40 0.70 0.60 0.60 0.60
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.49 N/A
Norwich 0.70 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.60 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A 0.55 0.60 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.70 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.60 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.72 N/A N/A N/A 0.62 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.72 N/A N/A N/A 0.62 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.65 0.70 0.40 N/A 0.60 0.60 0.60
Varna 0.70 0.70 0.70 N/A 0.65 0.60 0.60 N/A
Mitchell 0.70 0.70 0.70 N/A 0.70 0.55 0.60 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.77 0.77 0.34 N/A 0.96 0.96 0.66
W O Feed 1.46
TERMINAL
Sarnia 1.13 0.78 0.88 N/A 1.16 0.81 0.91 N/A
Prescott N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 1.02 0.71
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.40N/A N/A N/A 1.51N/A
Toledo El. 4.09US 5.44CA 4.35US 5.79CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.98 0.91 0.91 0.79
CAD $/bu 5.53 5.46 5.46 6.41
CAD $/tonne 203.14 200.69 200.69 235.43
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 521.62
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 135.00 - 140.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for January 18, 2017, by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, January 18, 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.65 ↑ 07 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 10.75 ↑ 65 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 4.31 ↑ 12 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.72 ↑ 12 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.52 ↑ 20 cents
Chicago Oats Mar 2.57 ↑ 25 cents
Canadian $ Mar .7560 ↓ 0.35 points
CORN: This week proved to be positive for corn as once again we tested the upper end of our resistance on the March contract and closed above our two month high of $3.60. From here we may see a small correction, but another attempt and a close above $3.70 should catapult us towards the $3.80 level in the coming months or even weeks.
Meanwhile, our overhead resistance remains at $3.70 while support is seen at $3.40.
Short term and weekly indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: The move continued this week on the March contract as soybeans gained about 60 cents per bushel to hit our $10.70 resistance level that we spoke of last week. We also received a red buy signal this week on the daily chart as a result of the strength of the move. This momentum could just be getting started as there is very little resistance from this $10.70 level through the $11 - $11.40 levels based on the March contract. Three key factors influencing this rally were the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduction in yields, issues with the South America crop, and short covering by hedge funds. We will find out in the next few trading sessions if we have any more momentum on the upside. Initial support is still at the $10.25 level on March, and once we close convincingly above $10.75, our next target is the $11 - $11.20 area. Short and intermediate term indicators have now turned positive but the main trend is still down.
WHEAT: As expected, the wheat markets behaved as forecast. We ascended to within two cents of the $4.40 level on March and have since stalled. Our red buy signal from two weeks ago is still intact, but a pullback is likely before an attempt at our $4.40 resistance and hopefully our next target price of $4.50 - $4.60.
Before we get too excited, a major trend change takes time and can be slow and painstaking and we haven’t seen one for several years; but this is the type of price action necessary before we can even hope for higher prices leading to a major trend change.
The HRS completed our inverted head and shoulders formation on the March contract and has since stalled. Charts suggest a pullback from these levels since we have a nicely formed key reversal on the daily chart. I am looking for support around the $5.40 - $5.50 level on the March contract, and either way, I feel we will possibly challenge the $5.90 level again once our correction is completed.
CBOT March wheat initial support is still seen at the $4.20 level and again at $4, while overhead resistance is at the $4.40 - $4.50 level.
Both short and intermediate term indicators are still positive but the primary trend is still down.
2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of close on January 18, 2017
SWW @ $183.15 ($4.98/bu), HRW @ $190.46/MT ($5.18/bu),
HRS @ $230.65/MT ($6.28/bu), SRW @ $190.46/MT ($51.8/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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